三大权威机构数据

……陈宏杰博客  blog.sina.com.cn/timesbaby……

       由于NYMEX是以路州Henry Hub接点交易价为标准，我们不得不以美国数据为标准来衡量。http://www.naturalgas.org/images/resources_ng_reserves.gif这个十年（90～00），美国勘探量没有明显增加，04年以后可能有不同，等我看多些资料，再补充。下面数据比较老一点，大体说明一些问题。哈克兄是此道专家，有空请指点。

       The first, compiled by the EIA, estimates that there are 1,747 Tcf of technically recoverable in the US. This includes undiscovered, unproved, and unconventional NG. As seen from the table, proved reserves make up a very small proportion of the total recoverable NG resources in the US.

       The following table includes an estimate of natural gas resources compiled by the NPC in 1999 in its report NG - Meeting the Challenges of the Nation's Growing NG Demand. This estimate places US NG resources higher than the EIA, at 1,779 Tcf remaining. It is important to note that different methodologies and systems of classification are used in various estimates that are completed. There is no single way that every industry player quantifies estimates of NG. Therefore, it is important to delve into the assumptions and methodology behind each study to gain a complete understanding of the estimate itself.

       Below is a third estimate completed by the PGC. This estimate places total US NG resources at just over 1,836 Tcf. This estimate classifies natural gas resources into three categories: probable resources, possible resources, and speculative resources, which are added together to reach a total potential resource estimate. Only this total is shown below.

       The new PGC estimate of the total US NG resource base at year-end 08 is 2,074 Tcf, more than 36 percent higher than in 06. This total reflects a 515 Tcf (36 percent) net increase in the PGC estimate of potential NG resources to a volume of 1,836 Tcf, the highest level in the Committee's 44-year history. It also includes 238 Tcf of proved gas reserves at year-end 07, the most recent estimate independently made by the Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy. q.v.

       The year-end 08 PGC potential NG resource estimate, which is the volume the Committee believes could be found and produced in future years, is comprised of 1,673 Tcf resident in traditional gas reservoirs and 163 Tcf resident in coalbed reservoirs. Estimated traditionally reservoired resources are 519 Tcf (21.6%) higher than in 06, whereas estimated coalbed methane resources are 3 Tcf (1.9%) lower. The changes arose primarily from analysis of new data for the Gulf Coast, Rocky Mountain, Atlantic, and Mid-Continent areas, which jointly account for 87% of estimated traditional resources. The largest increase in gas resources resulted from new assessments of shale gas plays located in the Atlantic area's Appalachian Basin, the Mid-Continent area's Arkoma and Fort Worth basins, several Gulf Coast area basins, and the Rocky Mountain area's Uinta Basin. Shale gas now comprises 616 Tcf (33%) of potential NG resources.