一跌倾城  一涨倾国

……陈宏杰博客  blog.sina.com.cn/timesbaby……

At the height of its late 2005 rally, natural gas in the U.S. was selling for just over $16/MMBtu, 350% higher than today’s price of $3.56. The oil/gas ratio, now over 18, is an all-time high… suggesting that natural gas is dirt cheap. So, it’s a buy, right? (陈宏杰博客  blog.sina.com.cn/TimesBaby)

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Given the increase in production and the small slide in demand, the price of natural gas has fallen to around $3.50-$4.00 per MMBtu (down from $13 per MMBtu last summer). At these prices, many gas prospects are uneconomic, and thus there has been a marked decline in the number of wells being drilled. Rig activity (how many rigs are operating) is down about 50% in North America.

But here is where an interesting feedback mechanism kicks in. One of the characteristics of unconventional shale gas wells, and to a lesser extent natural gas wells in general, is that the production rate declines through time. Most shale wells' production rates decline 60 to 90% in the first year. If you were a gas company trying to survive amidst today's low prices, the rate of return on your capital investment would also be painfully low for a significant amount of gas if this were your initial year of production.

Another complementary fact is that over 50% of natural gas consumed in the United States today is from wells drilled less than three years ago, and 25-30% of the gas produced today comes from wells drilled last year.

Hence it follows that if there are 50% fewer wells drilled this year (from the drop in rig activity), new production will decline about 35-40% by the end of the year, so there will be gas shortages. Those will in turn lead to higher North American prices, which in turn should lead to additional drilling. (陈宏杰博客  blog.sina.com.cn/TimesBaby)

对于能源关注度，北美1、Geothermal -- the most interesting of the alternative energy sources, by a wide margin；2、Nuclear；3、Oil.。前两者建造期不短，一个地热或核电站大约需要3～5年工期，后者供应前景比之Natural Gas还悲观。欧洲关注1、Unconventional gas has, by far, the most upside；2、Unconventional oil；3、Small hydro (such as run of river)。Natural Gas上升明显，北海枯竭，Crude Oil 急切需要新源头补充。亚洲，1、 Liquid Natural Gas (LNG)；2、Coal Bed Methane (CBM)。

对于能源投资有几点需要重申。首先，廉价并不意味着不能更便宜，除非供应需求发生了根本性转变，别眼下的北美Natural Gas。其次，地质和运输等地源性因素，使得本地市场对能源价格有很强定价权。例如，北美拥有丰富的Natural Gas，欧洲却要依靠俄罗斯输入，所以美国的Natural Gas价格不会成为新闻热点，在欧洲却大不一样。早期投资欧洲Natural Gas行业的人能够获得巨额利润，而投资美国Natural Gas行业，就成灾难。中文版见本周《股市动态分析》。(陈宏杰博客  blog.sina.com.cn/TimesBaby)

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