全球各大股市廉与昂

……陈宏杰博客   blog.sina.com.cn/timesbaby……

PE早已被公认为最有用的财务指标，但若没有同时考虑到经济体经济增长的前景，对于投资，PE可能是误导。表现经济增长最主要指标是GDP，它反映连贯性趋势，这非常重要，以单一年份的增长来推导今后经济趋势是危险的。下表是英伦投资人士纳迪姆以2008年各经济体PE与GDP增长的比值，作为一项指标，展望未来股价的相对估值水平。划分标准是以纳迪姆的思路，我个人不太认同，借鉴一下彼岸投资人士的不同观点，用以清醒头脑。（陈宏杰博客   blog.sina.com.cn/TimesBaby）

廉价市场：土耳其、韩国、俄罗斯、印度；

公平定价市场：香港、加拿大、澳大利亚、巴西；

昂贵市场：中国、美国、欧洲；

严重高估市场：日本。（陈宏杰博客   blog.sina.com.cn/TimesBaby）

中国是否已经高估各见仁智，但纳迪姆称日本为Basket Case，完全无作为的投资场所。似乎太受日本十年来投资收益的影响了，毕竟一个刚刚结实13年大熊市的市场即使未必有很好的投资价值，但风险系数高到“无所作为”的地步有点夸张了。他还有一些投资建议，见下文。（陈宏杰博客   blog.sina.com.cn/TimesBaby）

Conclusion:（陈宏杰博客   blog.sina.com.cn/TimesBaby）


If you don't have any or very little exposure to Turkey, South Korea, Russia and India then you should seriously think about adjusting your portfolios in their favour.

Hong Kong, Canada, Australia, and Brazil are good long-term prospects, but they are not cheap, therefore a reaction or correction would present a buying opportunity there.

China, UK, USA. Suggests being underweight in domestic stocks. China, this market is not cheap, I pulled out of this months ago and await a serious pull back before contemplating re-entering, were talking 30%+ Though there are plenty of better opportunities even after a pull back of 30%.

I just cannot fathom why so many people are obsessed with piling into Japan ?

Immediate Term Technical Outlook

My technical take for a month now has been for Western stock markets to outperform the asian stock markets, to decouple so to speak.( 21 Oct 2007) , ( 04 Nov 2007 ), ( 12 Nov 2007) This is being borne out by actual price movements. I.e. This week US stocks closed marginally higher with the S&P up 0.35%. Whilst China and Hong Kong stocks fell, with the Hang Seng down 4% and the Shanghai Index down 1%. I anticipate this trend to continue into the New Year, as the Western markets are still gearing up towards a strong end of year rally.（陈宏杰博客   blog.sina.com.cn/TimesBaby）

Banking Sector（陈宏杰博客   blog.sina.com.cn/TimesBaby）

Having watched the banking sector crash towards multi-year lows, I am now finally contemplating entering the market to pick up some cheap bank stocks for the long-run. My reasoning is mostly technical, but also supported by the assumption that the financial and banking stocks world over have lost trillions in market capitalization. That's against a worst case scenario of some $400 billions of bad debt losses over 2 years, as against $45 billion of actually reported bad debt provisions to date. Check by the Market Oracle site for an article to be published Monday morning - Banking Stocks - Is It Time To Buy?

Yours, thinking about adding to Indian and Turkish stocks for the long-run on Monday, (since I am already fully loaded with Russia and South Korea), and feeling the urge to buy certain banks.