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一股抵一辆宝马,全球最贵股票的真相

(2009-03-02 14:01:40)
标签:

1股曾抵1辆宝马

真实估值水平

还原其真相

其如何积累财富

股票

分类: 股票—精品与经典

    全球最贵的股票是谁?无疑是巴菲特控股的Berkshire Hathaway了,07年股价最高时,一股可买一辆宝马,即使跌了近50%的现在,一股也可以买一辆奥迪了

    巴菲特家族控股的公司,中文有人翻译成“巴郡”——Berkshire Hathaway,一直享受全球最高的股价,07年最高价格曾经达到每股151,650美圆07年每股净资产高达77,301美圆PB最高1.97倍;07年每股盈利高达8,548美圆,PE最高为17.74倍。08年每股净资产70,530美圆,每股盈利3,224美圆,当前静态PB 1.07 倍多一点,PE 23 倍左右)现在股价已经回落到每股净值附近即75000美圆左右,依然是全球最贵的股票

         美国股市的PB和PE即使在07年10月最高点时,还如此之低!即便如此,巴菲特在其自传《滚雪球》中,自90年代起就抱怨已经买不到便宜股票啦。他的原则改为不在二级市场买股票,而热衷于与公司协议购买股份尤其是附有固定收益权的优先股或债权。

    巴菲特上个世纪60-70年代开始投资于美国股票市场时,通宵达旦从浩繁的信息资料如《穆笛手册》中寻觅发现被市场遗忘的“烟蒂”。他购买的第一只股票,他分析当年可能一股分红25美圆,而市场上转让的价格却也只有25美圆,于是就大胆巧妙地疯狂收购这个公司的股份。如此便宜的事情!与天上掉馅饼有何异?!中国股市什么时候出现过?时代造英雄啊!

    美国经济60-70年代正在起飞的孕育阶段,由于经受了数次经济危机和股市暴跌,民众的投资意愿极低,一朝被蛇咬十年怕井绳,直到81年末,股市基本没涨,巴菲特越跌越买,单是依靠投资企业的每年分红(也有失误的时候,如持有股份的个别公司倒闭了;但由于是组合投资,其他公司的利润分红则巨大),就为他的公司积累了巨大的利润。82年后,美国全民投资热潮逐渐兴起,华尔街资本市场开始起飞,赶上了好时候,老巴的资产搭上了火箭,终成世界首富。

    巴菲特快速积累财富的另一个方法,就是“私募投资式经营”,其父亲是当地一名企业家和政客,有一定资本积累,其父亲的有钱朋友也多。巴菲特开始投资后,其父母、姐妹以及父亲的有钱朋友们,都把钱给他打理,约定了经营利润他抽取25%的条款。独特的投资思路、坚守自己的原则、谨慎而勤奋的投资管理和杠杆化资本积累,最终决定了巴菲特不但自己晋身世界首富,还帮助亲戚朋友都成了亿万富翁。

    巴菲特一生投资不贪婪,坚定自己的投资准则,绝不追随泡沫。谨慎使他成功地躲过了一次又一次华尔街的泡沫破裂,如1987年华尔街股市的泡沫破裂和2000年的NASDAQ网络股的泡沫破裂;包括2007年的这次华尔街金融泡沫破裂,应该说他也是成功避开了,只是抄底早了点。正是每次股市泡沫破裂之前,他都储备了大量现金,他才能做到“别人恐惧时我贪婪”。

    我们所处的时代,与巴菲特所处的时代迥然不同。中国股市,一开始就是“天价”,就没有出现过遍地“黄金卖的垃圾价”的时候。这是中国股市只可能出索罗斯不可能出巴菲特的重要原因。

    若要中国股市出现巴菲特当年拣“垃圾黄金”的时代,除非指数跌回300点以下。这可能吗?

    Berkshire Hathaway,大约1996年才开始在纽约证券交易所上市,上市后最低价格大约是3.4万美圆(美国股市的IPO发行面值很高,而且不统一,不像我们的股票,最初面值都是一元,美国股市有的面值可能2万美圆,有的可能50美圆,有的可能1美圆。所以在绝对价格方面,中美股票没有可比性,之前是非公开交易的股份公司。由此看,在公开市场上买进巴菲特公司的股票,没有能够为一般散户带来巨大到奇迹的收益。

 

附:巴菲特任董事的华盛顿邮报《巴菲特自责08年投资失误》一文

Buffett Takes Blame For Firm's Ugly Year

Berkshire Chief Cites Purchase of Oil Shares; Fourth-Quarter Profit Plunged 96 Percent

 
By Josh Funk
Associated Press
Sunday, March 1, 2009

 

OMAHA, Feb. 28 -- The widely followed investor Warren E. Buffett issued his annual letter to shareholders yesterday, accepting blame for Berkshire Hathaway's worst showing in his 44 years as chairman and chief executive.

"During 2008 I did some dumb things in investments," he wrote, adding later, "I made some errors of omission, sucking my thumb when new facts came in that should have caused me to re-examine my thinking and promptly take action."

But Buffet wrote that he remains hopeful about the long-term prospects for his company and the nation despite the turmoil shaking the world's economies.

"The economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 -- and, for that matter, probably well beyond -- but that conclusion does not tell us whether the stock market will rise or fall," he wrote.

America faced bigger economic challenges in the past, including two world wars and the Great Depression, he said.

"Though the path has not been smooth, our economic system has worked extraordinarily well over time," Buffett wrote. "It has unleashed human potential as no other system has, and it will continue to do so. America's best days lie ahead."

Buffett estimated that Berkshire's book value -- assets minus liabilities -- declined 9.6 percent, to $70,530 per share in 2008 -- the biggest drop since he took control of the company in 1965. Berkshire's book value has declined one other time under Buffett's leadership, and that was a 6.2 percent drop in 2001 when insurance losses related to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks hurt results.

Berkshire's Class A shares fell nearly 32 percent in 2008 and have declined 48 percent since setting a high of $151,650 in December 2007. That high came after an exceptionally profitable quarter that was helped by a $2 billion investment gain.

The S&P 500 fell 38 percent in 2008.

Within Berkshire, Buffett said the company's retail businesses, including furniture and jewelry stores, and those tied to residential construction, such as Shaw carpet and Acme Brick, were hit hard last year.

Berkshire's utility and insurance businesses delivered outstanding results in 2008 that helped balance out the other businesses, he said. Buffett praised Geico chief executive Tony Nicely's ability to increase Geico's market share to 7.7 percent of the auto insurance market last year.

"As we view Geico's current opportunities, Tony and I feel like two hungry mosquitoes in a nudist camp. Juicy targets are everywhere," Buffett wrote.

 

Overall, Berkshire's 2008 profit of $4.99 billion, or $3,224 per Class A share, was down 62 percent from $13.21 billion, or $8,548 per share, in 2007. Berkshire's fourth-quarter numbers were even worse. Buffett's company reported net income of $117 million, or $76 per share, down 96 percent from $2.95 billion, or $1,904 per share, a year earlier.

Buffett said he made at least one major investing mistake last year by buying a large amount of ConocoPhillips stock when oil and gas prices were near their peak.

Buffett says he also spent $244 million on stock in two Irish banks that appeared cheap. But since then, he's had to write down the value of those purchases to $27 million.

Buffett posted several investing successes in 2008.

Berkshire committed $14.5 billion to fixed-income investments in Goldman Sachs Group and General Electric. Those investments carry high interest rates and give Berkshire the option to acquire stock in those companies.

To fund those investments, Buffett said he had to sell some of Berkshire's holdings he would have preferred to keep -- in Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble and ConocoPhillips.

Overall, Berkshire owns a diverse mix of more than 60 companies. Buffett is a director of The Washington Post Co.


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