面对金融危机，各国的形势不同，经济刺激力度也不一样，这导致全球主要汽车生产商的地位的变化。

丰田在若干年前打败通用，登上全球销售冠军宝座。不过，在这次危机中，其主要战场的美国和日本本土受创最重，销售量大幅下滑，去年出现公司28历史上的首次亏损。今年第一季，丰田在美国的销量下滑了38%，在日本本土下滑了24%，而美日两大市场销量占到丰田全球销量的一半。

德国大众汽车主战场在德国本土、中国和巴西，这3个国家的市场占到大众全球销量的44%，这几个国家的政府推出了强力的刺激消费措施，使得大众车的销售受影响较小，公司在1月份曾预测全年销量会减少10%，但目前形势比预料的强得多，这个预测很可能会修改。

大众已经超过了底特律沉沦巨人通用汽车，第一季度的详细数据尚未公布，不过，据测算它的销售量很可能在第一季度已经超过了丰田。目前，大众汽车的市值为1000亿美元，丰田则为1330亿美元。

Volkswagen May Overtake Toyota as Top Auto Seller

By: Reuters | 17 Apr 2009 | 02:51 AM ET

Volkswagen may have passed Toyota Motor as the world's top selling automaker in the first quarter, helped by robust demand in its main markets, while its Japanese rival suffered sharp declines, partial company data suggests.

The German automaker, with its nine car and truck brands including Audi, Skoda, Seat and Skania, has set a goal of overtaking Toyota and General Motors to be the world's No.1 seller by 2018 -- a target that was initially met with scepticism.

But a deepening recession and credit crisis have crippled demand in Toyota's top markets, with U.S. sales falling 38 percent and Japan sliding 24 percent in January-March.

Volkswagen, meanwhile, is benefiting from government stimulus plans that have boosted sales in China, Germany and Brazil, which together accounted for 44 percent of group sales last year, making it more likely that it beat Toyota or at least came close.

In the first quarter of last year, the German group delivered 1.57 million vehicles, a third less than Toyota's 2.41 million, which included sales at minivehicle and truck units Daihatsu Motor and Hino Motors.

Toyota has given no forecast for retail sales, but its latest estimate for shipments for the 2009 first quarter is 1.23 million vehicles, down 47 percent from a year earlier.

Its first-quarter U.S. sales fell 36 percent, while sales in Japan for the core Toyota brand plummeted 31 percent. The two markets account for just under half of Toyota's global sales.

Volkswagen had projected a 10 percent decline in its global sales for 2009 back in January, but the sharp reversal in trends in Germany and China could alter that outcome.

"Volkswagen is a big competitor for Toyota," said Koji Endo, auto analyst at Credit Suisse in Tokyo. "Audi is strong, Volkswagen is strong, and they're making good use of their small cars."

The automakers are expected to disclose their worldwide first-quarter vehicle sales over the next week.

The ranking could easily change in subsequent quarters.

Toyota is counting on a third-generation Prius hybrid car due for roll-out next month to jump-start sales as more countries offer consumers incentives to buy energy-efficient cars. It will launch 16 new models in Europe this year following a product drought in 2008.

Volkswagen, for its part, will have a full year of contribution from the remodelled Golf, a perennial best-seller, and the relaunch of its popular Polo compact car.

Volkswagen has also moved up in stock value ranking, grabbing the No.2 spot behind Toyota, whose market capitalisation of $133 billion still dwarfs the German carmaker's $100 billion.

Market research company R.L. Polk Germany predicted this month that Volkswagen would overtake GM as the world's second-largest automaker as the U.S. giant suffers steep declines at home amid fears of bankruptcy.