加载中…转：LoopVentures分析师吉恩的观点
(2020-02-09 02:45:11)
标签：
财经 |
分类： 但斌观点 |
转：Loop
Ventures分析师吉恩的观点：目前，苹果公司按照明年营收的4.5倍估值。如果在未来三年中，特斯拉的收入每年增长20%，收入将在2023年达到800亿美元。给予市销率4.5倍相当于3600亿美元的市值，而特斯拉今天的市值为1400亿美元。考虑到可预见的电动汽车市场的规模，以及特斯拉全自动驾驶软件的潜在收入，我们相信这是一个可实现的目标。
特斯拉的估值与2010年亚马逊的估值类似。当时，亚马逊只有零星的利润，但其所在的市场庞大且可预见。投资者十分相信亚马逊未来终有一天会实现10%的运营利润率，并且是可持续的。尽管这一经营利润目标尚未实现，但公司已实现收入的增长。亚马逊的市值从2010年的590亿美元增加到今天的9380亿美元（2010年1月1日-目前）。
那么，特斯拉是过度高估还是低估了？简单的答案是：如果投资者继续对少数几家公司保持信心，那么特斯拉的市值在未来五年会远高于目前的1400亿美元。
Today, Apple is trading at 4.5x
next year's revenue. If in each of the next three years Tesla grows
revenue at 20%, the company will reach $80B in revenue in 2023.
Applying a 4.5x multiple on revenue equates a $360B market cap,
compared to today's $140B cap. We believe this is an achievable
goal given the size of the addressable EV market along with Tesla's
ability to charge for Full-Self Driving software
updates.
The Tesla valuation exercise is
similar to that of Amazon in 2010. At the time, Amazon had sporadic
earnings but a large addressable market in front of it. Investors
opted to give Amazon the overwhelming benefit of the doubt that,
eventually, they would deliver on consistent earnings with a goal
of 10% operating margin. That operating margin target has not
materialized but the company's revenue growth has. The market value
of Amazon has increased from $59B in 2010 to $938B today (Jan 1,
2010 – present).
So, is Tesla over- or
undervalued? The simple answer is: if investors continue to give a
handful of companies the benefit of the doubt, Tesla’s market cap
will likely move higher than its current $140B over the next five
years.
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