Oil dependence can have serious implications for a country's general economy, social stability and foreign policy. The US learned this lesson from the 1973 oil crisis, which had an enormous and profound impact on its energy policy. In reaction to the crisis, then US President Richard Nixon launched Project Independence to achieve self-sufficiency through energy conservation and development of alternative energy sources. The ultimate goal was that by freeing itself from imported oil, it could improve its economic stability and national security, which are easily threatened if it relies too much on foreign oil.

The US may soon achieve that goal. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that by 2020, the US will be a net natural gas exporter and nearly energy self-sufficient, in net terms, by 2035.

China's dependence on foreign oil sources, by contrast, has been rising sharply. According to the IEA, China will become the largest consumer of oil by 2030, driving Asia's growing dominance in global energy demand and trade. China's foreign oil dependence will reach 76 percent by 2035, according to forecasts in the BP Energy Outlook; and dependence on natural gas imports will reach 50 percent by the same year, according to a study by the Institute for Studies in Energy Policy at Xiamen University.

As a major contributor to the world's demand for oil and a country with crucial political importance, energy independence by the US will have an enormous impact on global oil flows and pricing as well as many issues of geopolitical significance.

Generally speaking, the stability and security of a country's energy supply is determined by two factors: stability of import sources and the security of oil transportation. How will China be affected by the energy independence of the US on these two aspects?

It is possible that we could see deteriorating political conditions in China's import sources. As the US pares down its dependence on Middle East oil, the US will likely dial down efforts to enhance security and stability in the region. Previously, the US had been maintaining a generally sound relationship with hostile regimes. It might stop to do so in the future when it no longer needs their oil resources, which may in turn lead to intensified unrest.

On the other hand, US authorities might increase economic sanctions on countries like Iran and Sudan, two nations which happen to be important oil suppliers for China. Either way, these outcomes will have a negative impact on China's energy security and cause potential strategic conflicts between China and the US when dealing with certain international issues, such as Iran's nuclear program.

Energy independence of the US may also undermine transportation safety of oil imports to China. Among the major world oil transit chokepoints, China has a growing dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, and the Strait of Malacca. The security of both chokepoints has been largely maintained by US military forces. This means China's energy lifeline is heavily dependent on the efforts by the US side.

Since China lacks the means to safeguard these channels and chokepoints for maritime transit of oil, China's oil supply could soon become much less stable. With the US becoming more self-sufficient in energy and less reliant on these chokepoints, it will soon become a question if the US will continue to safeguard these channels. China should at least consider the possibility that when China-US relations come under pressure, the US could easily take advantage of China's weak oil transportation security.

来源：Global Times