美国《时代》杂志7月14日一期载文《北京命令污染消失》(作者Austin Ramzy)，摘要如下（原文附后）：

离北京奥运不到一个月了，北京的空气仍然灰蒙蒙的。尽管国际奥委会通常会称赞这座城市为奥运所作的准备，但它说污染仍然是个突出的问题。随着奥运的脚步越来越近，人们越发担心投入环境清洁的170亿美元无法让奥运摆脱呛人的阴霾。但一些熟悉北京短期污染控制计划的专家表示，在奥运筹备的最后阶段，北京的空气应该会大大改善。对该国的荣誉和成功的盛事而言，这将是一个好消息。这种解决之道的核心在于政府勒令打压工业和交通。

北京已经宣布建筑工地、矿场和化工厂在7月20日开始停工。北京的一些污染工厂被要求减排30%。在邻近的天津和唐山，超过三百家工厂在奥运期间关闭。这种短期清洁工作的最大元素将是7月20日开始的交通管制。在那一天，政府车辆按要求减少70%，私家车获准隔天上路。尽管警车、救护车和计程车不受影响，但政府估计北京上路的汽车会减少50%（北京目前汽车数为330万辆）。乐观的预测部分是基于以往演习的结果。在2006年中非峰会期间，交通管制让当时上路的车减少80万辆（当时北京有280万辆车）。根据哈佛大学和荷兰皇家气象研究所研究员的研究，那次实行了三天的限制取得“显着成功”，氮氧化物下降40%。中国和德国研究员进行的另一项研究表明2006年的测试也有助于减少空气中的微粒。

交通限制的好处不仅仅是因为不让污染大的汽车上路。清华大学环境科学教授郝吉明（音译，Hao Jiming）表示，北京的交通堵塞意味着较新的、较高能效的车子也会比它们在交通畅通情况下运行产生的污染大。他认为提高速度会降低污染。减少上路的汽车可以减少40%的污染物，而剩下的车辆可以以较高速度运行则可以再减少10%的污染物。北京还增加了地铁线，增加车次，以应对汽车管制期间的公共交通。北京要求办公室和商店错开工作时间，幷组织来往奥运场地的公共汽车。但如果说以前的测试提供了什么例子的话，那就是出行仍然困难。 一个未知因素就是天气可以提供多大程度的帮助。强风可以迅速清理北京的天空。但如果没有微风，北京北部和西部的山丘就很容易圈住污染物。

尽管清洁的天空将是奥运东道主欢迎的景象，但北京居民无法长期享受。中国非政府组织“太平洋环境（Pacific Environment）”的中国总监温波（音译，Wen Bo）表示，这些措施只是短期的权宜之计，北京政府现在尚没有时间和精力思考解决空气污染问题的长期解决方案。

Monday, Jul. 14, 2008

Beijing  Orders Pollution to Vanish

By Austin Ramzy / Beijing

With less than a month to go until the start of the Beijing Olympics, the air in the Chinese capital remains gray and smoggy. While the International Olympic Committee has generally praised the city's preparation for the Games, it says that pollution remains an outstanding concern. And so as the countdown clock in Tiananmen Square winds down to zero, worries grow that the $17 billion spent on environmental cleanup won't keep the Games from being clouded by a choking haze.

But experts familiar with the city's plans for short-term pollution controls say Beijing's air should vastly improve in the final run-up to the Games. That will be good news for the country's reputation and a successful event. However, the solution is only a quick fix; once the controls are lifted, Beijing will most likely return to its smoggy norm.

At the core of the solution are government-decreed industrial and traffic crackdowns. Beijing has announced work stoppages on July 20 for construction sites, mines and chemical plants. A group of polluting factories in Beijing will be required to cut emissions by 30%. In the neighboring cities of Tianjin and Tangshan, more than 300 factories will be shuttered during the Olympics.

The biggest element of the short-term cleanup efforts will be a restriction on car traffic that begins July 20. On that day government-vehicle traffic will be ordered to cut back by 70%, and private vehicles will be permitted to drive only on alternating days. Although police cars, emergency vehicles and taxis will be exempt, the government estimates that up to 50% of Beijing's 3.3 million vehicles will be cleared from the streets. "By July 20, not only the traffic control will be at ... full scale, [but] all the other controlling measures should in place," says Zhu Tong, an environmental-science professor at Peking University. "With all these controlling measures working at the same time, I am confident that the air quality in Beijing should be significantly improved."

The optimistic projections of an air turnaround for the Olympics are based in part on the results of previous exercises in barring cars from the streets of the capital. During a Sino-African summit in 2006, vehicle restrictions were enacted that removed about 800,000 of Beijing's then 2.8 million cars. The restrictions, which were put in place for three days, were "remarkably successful" and led to a 40% drop in nitrogen oxides, according to a study conducted by researchers from Harvard University and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute.

Another study by Chinese and German researchers found that the 2006 test also helped cut airborne particles. "There was a significant decrease," says Jost Heintzenberg, director of the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research. Under this year's plan, with added restrictions to keep trucks and cars that don't meet inspection out of the city, Heintzenberg says, "I make an educated guess on a 50% visibility improvement that they can manage."

The benefits of the auto restrictions come from not just taking polluting cars off the streets. Beijing's notorious traffic jams mean that even newer, efficient cars pollute more than if they were traveling in free-flowing traffic, says Hao Jiming, a professor of environmental science at Tsinghua University. "Driver speeds will increase, especially in urban areas. The high speed makes emissions lower," Hao says. He estimates that simply removing cars will cut pollutants by 40%, and the higher speeds of the remaining vehicles will mean an additional 10% reduction in pollutants. Beijing has added subway lines and increased its number of subway cars to handle the crush on public transit during the car-restriction period. Offices and stores have also been ordered to stagger working hours, and buses to and from Olympic venues have been organized. But if the previous tests are any example, getting around town could still be tough.

One unknown will be to what extent weather helps. When the wind blows strong out of the north, Beijing's skies can clear quickly. But when there is no breeze, the city's northern and western hills can easily trap pollution. Last August a four-day car-restriction test resulted in only modest improvements, which the Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau blamed on the lack of a breeze. But unlike the 2006 and 2007 tests, which ran for just three and four days, respectively, this year's limitations will have been in place for nearly three weeks when the Olympics kick off. Hao says he expects to see clearer skies within one week. "After a few days, the air quality will be improved," he says. "How many days? That depends on the weather."

But while cleaner skies will be a welcome sight for the Olympic hosts, Beijing's residents won't have long to enjoy it. The restrictions will be kept in place for the Sept. 6-17 Paralympics, then end on Sept. 20. "The measures are only a short-term fix," says Wen Bo, China director for the NGO Pacific Environment. "I think the current Beijing government couldn't have the time and energy to think of long-term solutions for fixing air pollution."