美国联邦人口普查局（the U.S. Census Bureau）选择了3“12”这一难得的日子，即 2012年12月12日，公布了预估报告，题为“从现在起半个世纪后，美国将成为一个缓慢老年化和更多族裔化的国家”。

    此报告称，不断增加的亚裔及西语裔人口，未来半世纪将全面改变美国的面貌，到2043年，白人不仅不再是多数族群，到2060年，“非白人”(non-white)更将占美国人口的57%，白人相对成为少数族裔。报告指出，亚裔人口虽然在未来50年也将会成长到超过现在的两倍，但没有任何一个族裔会成为多数，美国总人口的成长也将趋缓。报告还预测，到2060年，美国人口严重老化，65岁以上者将倍增为9200万人，相当于五个人里，就有一人超过65岁；85岁以上的“特老族”也将增长三倍，达到1820万人。到那时，老年人口将首度超过年轻人。人口普查局表示，2012年“非白人”的总人口有1亿1620万人，到2060年将成长到2亿4130万人，占美国总人口的57%。报告说，现在少数族裔占美国总人口的37%。

    联邦人口普查局指出，根据2010年人口普查的资料，这项人口结构的变化是因为少数族裔的出生率大于白人的出生率。到2060年，约三分之一的美国人将是西语裔，远多于目前六分之一的比率。

    该局代局长梅森堡 (Thomas Mesenbourg) 表示：“美国将成为一个真正的多元国家，‘非西语裔白人’(non-Hispanic white)仍将是最大的族群，但没有任何一个族裔会是多数。”

    人口普查局还同时公布了以下数字：

• 2051年，全国总人口将跨越2051年的4亿大关，2060年达到4.203亿。
• 预计在2012年至2060年期间，18岁以下的人口所占的比例，变化不大，从23.5％下降到21.2％。
• 2056年，65岁及以上的老年人口，预计将第一次超过18岁以下的年轻人。
• 预计在2012年和2060，劳动年龄人口（18至64）将增加了42万，从197万到239万，而其总人口的份额从62.7％下降到56.9％。
• 18岁以下的人口中，男女比例104.7比100，预计将保持稳定；18至64岁人口中，2012年男女比例为98.9比100，到2060年增加至104.1比100；人口年龄在65岁及以上的比例预计也将增加，从2012年的男女比例77.3比100到2060年的84.4比100。

    针对这项报告，美国的各种媒体，包括华文的《世界日报》，对此进行了追踪报道，认为美国建国以来白人占多数的居民结构，正在逐渐消退变化。美国一直朝“种族多元化”的方向发展，专家先前预测，少数族裔成为多数的人口结构将在2050年前发生，而人口普查局12日公布的资料显示，这个日子将提前于2043年来到。这种变化需要数十年才会发生，但预期中的变化已经改变美国的政治、公共政策、经济和消费形态。在最近总统大选后，美国面对的许多问题都和族裔有关，包括移民、同性婚姻、医疗保险改革，以及社会安全网福利计画等议题。

    今年11月，西语裔、非裔和年轻选民的选票使欧巴马总统连任成功。最高法院目前正在审理同性婚姻案件，同性婚姻在数个州已经合法。专家表示，这意味着，年轻选民已逐渐接受同性婚姻。为适应人口结构变化的需要，企业界和广告商都调整行销策略，把西语裔消费者定位为重要客户群。 多年来，住宅隔离的情况已经改善，第一、二代亚裔和西语裔移民的族裔通婚已经模煳了族裔藩篱，许多人已改用“多种族”(multiracial)形容自己的族裔，不再用单一族裔。

    到2060年，“多族裔”人口将从750万人增加到2670万人，届时“族裔”标籤已经没有意义。加州大学洛杉矶分校教育与资讯研究学院教务长苏阿瑞玆-欧若思科说，目前移民的下一代已是成长最快的人口。“非西语裔白人”目前人口有1亿9780万人，到2024年将达到2亿人，然后因为战后婴儿潮人口进入老年，人口将持续下降。四年后，18到29岁的少数族裔年轻人将成为多数，在选举总统时，他们的影响力将更大。

 以下为美国联邦人口普查局推估报告的英文原文：

U.S. Census Bureau Projections Show a Slower Growing, Older, More Diverse Nation a Half Century from Now

The U.S. population will be considerably older and more racially and ethnically diverse by 2060, according to projections released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. These projections of the nation’s population by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, which cover the 2012-2060 period, are the first set of population projections based on the 2010 Census.

    “The next half century marks key points in continuing trends — the U.S. will become a plurality nation, where the non-Hispanic white population remains the largest single group, but no group is in the majority,” said Acting Director Thomas L. Mesenbourg.

    Furthermore, the population is projected to grow much more slowly over the next several decades, compared with the last set of projections released in 2008 and 2009. That is because the projected levels of births and net international migration are lower in the projections released today, reflecting more recent trends in fertility and international migration.

    According to the projections, the population age 65 and older is expected to more than double between 2012 and 2060, from 43.1 million to 92.0 million. The older population would represent just over one in five U.S. residents by the end of the period, up from one in seven today. The increase in the number of the “oldest old” would be even more dramatic — those 85 and older are projected to more than triple from 5.9 million to 18.2 million, reaching 4.3 percent of the total population.

    Baby boomers, defined as persons born between 1946 and 1964, number 76.4 million in 2012 and account for about one-quarter of the population. In 2060, when the youngest of them would be 96 years old, they are projected to number around 2.4 million and represent 0.6 percent of the total population.

    A More Diverse Nation

    The non-Hispanic white population is projected to peak in 2024, at 199.6 million, up from 197.8 million in 2012. Unlike other race or ethnic groups, however, its population is projected to slowly decrease, falling by nearly 20.6 million from 2024 to 2060.

    Meanwhile, the Hispanic population would more than double, from 53.3 million in 2012 to 128.8 million in 2060. Consequently, by the end of the period, nearly one in three U.S. residents would be Hispanic, up from about one in six today.

    The black population is expected to increase from 41.2 million to 61.8 million over the same period. Its share of the total population would rise slightly, from 13.1 percent in 2012 to 14.7 percent in 2060.

    The Asian population is projected to more than double, from 15.9 million in 2012 to 34.4 million in 2060, with its share of nation's total population climbing from 5.1 percent to 8.2 percent in the same period.

    Among the remaining race groups, American Indians and Alaska Natives would increase by more than half from now to 2060, from 3.9 million to 6.3 million, with their share of the total population edging up from 1.2 percent to 1.5 percent. The Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander population is expected to nearly double, from 706,000 to 1.4 million. The number of people who identify themselves as being of two or more races is projected to more than triple, from 7.5 million to 26.7 million over the same period.

    The U.S. is projected to become a majority-minority nation for the first time in 2043. While the non-Hispanic white population will remain the largest single group, no group will make up a majority.

    All in all, minorities, now 37 percent of the U.S. population, are projected to comprise 57 percent of the population in 2060. (Minorities consist of all but the single-race, non-Hispanic white population.) The total minority population would more than double, from 116.2 million to 241.3 million over the period.

    Projections show the older population would continue to be predominately non-Hispanic white, while younger ages are increasingly minority. Of those age 65 and older in 2060, 56.0 percent are expected to be non-Hispanic white, 21.2 percent Hispanic and 12.5 percent non-Hispanic black. In contrast, while 52.7 percent of those younger than 18 were non-Hispanic white in 2012, that number would drop to 32.9 percent by 2060. Hispanics are projected to make up 38.0 percent of this group in 2060, up from 23.9 percent in 2012.

    Other highlights:

·The nation’s total population would cross the 400 million mark in 2051, reaching 420.3 million in 2060.

·The proportion of the population younger than 18 is expected to change little over the 2012-2060 period, decreasing from 23.5 percent to 21.2 percent.

·In 2056, for the first time, the older population, age 65 and over, is projected to outnumber the young, age under 18.

·The working-age population (18 to 64) is expected to increase by 42 million between 2012 and 2060, from 197 million to 239 million, while its share of the total population declines from 62.7 percent to 56.9 percent.

·The ratio of males to females is expected to remain stable at around 104.7 males per 100 females for the population under the age of 18. For the population age 18 to 64, the ratio of males per 100 females is projected to be 98.9 in 2012 and increase to 104.1 in 2060. The ratio for the population age 65 and over is also projected to increase, from 77.3 males per 100 females in 2012 to 84.4 in 2060.

    Supplemental population projections, based on constant, low and high projections of net international migration, are planned for release in 2013.