Wang Huiyao: Good morning or good evening everyone and thank you for being with us for this dialogue with Professor Graham Allison from Harvard University and also Professor Li Chen from Renmin University of China. We’re live at CCG’s new multi-media studio in Beijing. This dialogue series is a part of CCG’s “China and the World” webinar series that we launched last year in an effort to engage eminent scholars, experts, government advisors and business leaders to continue exchange amid the pandemic, which is a difficult and challenging period of time.

We are really fortunate to be hosting Professor Graham Allison in this session. Professor Graham Allison is a world-renowned political scientist and a leading strategist in US national security and defense policy, with a special interest in nuclear arms control, geopolitical competition, and also strategic decision making. He is always at the front of the world affairs and has been a leading voice on issues like US-Soviet relations, the rise of China, Sino-US relations, terrorism, as well as Cuba and the Middle East.

Graham Allison is the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard Kennedy School, where he has taught for five decades. He was the “Founding Dean” of Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, and until 2017, he served as the Director of its Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs which is ranked the “No.1 University Affiliated Think Tank” in the world. He was also Assistant Secretary of Defense in the first Clinton Administration, and received the Defense Department’s highest civilian award, the Defense Medal for Distinguished Public Service, for “reshaping relations with Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan to reduce the former Soviet nuclear arsenal”.

Under his leadership from 1977 to 1989, Harvard Kennedy School has grown from a small undefined program to a major public policy institute. I’ve been really honored to have spent a year there as a senior fellow and had many exchanges with professor Graham and it was really a fond memory. It is also worth mentioning that many Chinese policy decision makers and scholars have gone through training programs there at Harvard Kennedy School.

Also, as Assistant Secretary of Defense under President Clinton and Special Adviser to the Secretary of Defense under President Reagan, Graham has been a member of the Secretary Defense’s Advisory Board for every Secretary from Weinberger to Mattis.  So he is well known and frequently consulted. He has the sole distinction of having twice been awarded the Distinguished Public Service Medal, first by Secretary Cap Weinberger and second by Secretary Bill Perry. He has served on the Advisory Boards of the Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, and the Director of the CIA.

Dr. Allison was the organizer of the Commission on America’s National Interests (1996 and 2000), a founding member of the Trilateral Commission, a Director of the Council on Foreign Relations, and has been a member of public committees and commissions, among them the Baker-Cutler DOE Task Force on Nonproliferation Programs with Russia, the IAEA’s Commission of Eminent Persons, and the Commission on Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction, Proliferation, and Terrorism.

He has the sole distinction of having twice been awarded the Distinguished Public Service Medal, first by Secretary Weinberger and second by Secretary Bill Perry. That’s very unique. He has served on the Advisory Boards of the Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, and the Director of the CIA. so Graham Allison also was the organizer of the Commission on America’s National Interests (1996 and 2000), a founding member of the Trilateral Commission, a Director of the Council on Foreign Relations, and has been a member of public committees and commissions, among them the Baker-Cutler DOE Task Force on Nonproliferation Programs with Russia, the IAEA’s Commission of Eminent Persons, and the Commission on Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction, Proliferation, and Terrorism.

Graham Allison: I think it’s more than enough, thank you Henry. Let’s jump into the topic.

Wang Huiyao: Okay, probably enough here. Professor’s famous book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap? was published in 2017. He actually gave a talk at the Center for China & Globalization in 2017 for this very well-known book, we had a very good discussion then for your profound thinking here. Also just last year, we invited you to a CCG event at the Munich Security Conference, where we have a very good talk.

The discussion we’re having today is really fascinating with the topic “Destined for rivalry partnership – US-China co-opetition in changing reality” and we also have another distinguished scholar, Professor Li Chen, the Director of Center for International Security and Strategy at School of International Studies, Renmin University of China. His research interests include strategic and diplomatic history, contemporary security and military strategy, and China-U.S. security relations, on which he has published scholarly articles in leading journals such as the Journal of Strategic Studies, China Military Science, and various public policy briefings. He frequently participates in various Track-2 dialogues on Asia- Pacific security. He is also a non-resident fellow of Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University. Li received his Ph.D. from the University of Cambridge in 2013. He has a master from Peking University.

So let’s begin our discussion today. You’ve been really widely consulted lately in many occasions and it’s really a great opportunity for us to talk to you. And we notice now this is also a very interesting time that President Biden has assumed office for probably less than 100 days now. And he had basically proposed that let’s have competition, but let’s also have corporation. Also for Mr. Wang Yi, Foreign Minister of China has also said at the NPC session that China recognizes there is competition but we also can have a cooperation. President Biden and President Xi had a 2-hour call on the Chinese new year and both presidents have expressed the desire of seeking no confrontation but cooperation if possible.

The question in the title of your book Destined for War? Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? has become a famous one. “It was the Rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Spartan that made war inevitable.” says the Greek historian Thucydides. So, can America and China escape this trap? It’s been four years since you published Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap, maybe you can share with us some new thinking about that, Professor Graham.