On April 30, the Center for China and Globalization (CCG) co-hosted the China-US Relations Forum with Harvard University’s China Social and Economic Symposium, joined by Harvard Professor Anthony Saich and CCG President Dr. Wang Huiyao. During this virtual dialogue, the two scholars discussed competition and cooperation between China and the United States in fields such as geopolitics, technology, economics, culture, the pandemic and climate, taking the pulse of China-US relations under the new Biden administration.

 

 

Prof. Anthony Saich is the faculty chair of the China Program at Harvard Kennedy School and the director of the Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation and Daewoo Professor of International Affairs, teaching courses with a focus on China. Prof. Saich first visited China as a student in 1976 and continues to visit each year. As a leading sinologist, prof. Saich also advises a wide range of government, private, and nonprofit organizations on work in China and elsewhere in Asia. Dr. Wang is founder and president of Center for China and Globalization (CCG) and a professor and dean of the Institute of Development at Southwestern University of Finance and Economics in China. He was a Senior Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School and co-authored The Path of Public Management Elite at Harvard, a book on Harvard’s public managementeducation. The Dialogue was moderated by HKS Mason Fellow Tian Ye.

This virtual program is part of CCG’s “China and the World” webinar series seeking to engage global thought leaders on topics concerning the current situation, dilemmas of globalization, and China’s role in the world.

Tian Ye: Hello everyone, good morning, good afternoon, good evening. Thank you for joining us today. My name is Tian Ye. I’m aMason Fellow here at Harvard Kennedy School. It’s my honor to moderate the US-China relations panel discussion, which is also the closing session of the China Social and Economic Symposium organized by China Society at Harvard Kennedy School. So today, we are very fortunate to have 2 top scholars in this field to analyze the trend of China-US relations and discuss the competition and cooperation between 2 countries in the domain of diplomacy, geopolitics, economy, technology and climate change. Now allow me to briefly introduce our 2 distinguished panelists. First, professor Anthony Saich is a Daewoo Professor of International Affairs in Harvard and the director of the Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation. Professor Saich teaches courses on comparative political institutions, democratic governance and traditional economies with a focus on China. Welcome, professor Saich.

Anthony Saich: Thank you.

Tian Ye: We then have Dr. Wang Huiyao, the founder and president of Center for China and Globalization (CCG). Dr. Wang is also a counselor to the China State Council, a vice chairman of Association of Economic Cooperation under the Ministry of Commerce and director of Chinese people’s Institute of Foreign Affairs as well as a vice chair of China Public Relations Association. Dr. Wang had been a senior fellow at Harvard Kennedy School. Welcome Dr. Wang.

Wang Huiyao: Thank you.

Tian Ye: OK, before we start, a quick announcement to the audience – throughout the panel discussion, please feel free to put your questions in the webinar Q&A box. My colleagues and I are monitoring the questions and I will raise to the panelist at the right time.

OK, now let’s get started. So, talking about the China-US relations, it’s probably fair to say that the relationship has reached an all-time low since the two countries re-established diplomatic relations in 1979. It seems that confrontation now outweighs cooperation on many fronts. In 2019, in his speech at the US Council on Foreign Relations, FBI Director Christopher Wray labeled China as whole-of-society threats, and he called on the United States to respond with a whole-of-society approach. So, professor Saich and Dr. Wang, do you think this is a sign of a potential Cold War? And what are your views on the development of China-US diplomacy in the future?

Anthony Saich: Well, I don’t think it would be a Cold War in the sense of the United States experienced with the former Soviet Union. And I think the Biden administration wants to act in a way that does see China as a strategic competitor but finds ways to prevent that sliding into a Cold War. The quite simple reason being while people might talk about is confronting on an all-round way. The two societies and economies are intertwined and embedded in very deep ways, if one looks at the financial sector, if one looks at trade, if one looks at investment. That really means that an all-out confrontation in the sense of a Cold War is impossible.

And remember even at the height of the Cold War with the Soviet Union, Washington and Moscow still found ways to cooperate in important areas and global challenges. And I think that is one area that we should always keep in mind as we think about this relationship as bad as it is at the current time. There are pending global challenges, which really need cooperation between countries like China, United States and indeed others to resolve problems and challenges around global public goods.

So yes, the relationship is very confrontational at the moment. But I think one has to accept the reality from Washington’s point of view, that China exists, it’s not going away anytime soon. And that neither actions in Washington are not gonna change domestic behavior in China and neither are actions from Beijing are gonna change domestic behavior in the United States. And with that as a basis, I think we have to build platforms about where is it legitimate to have competition? What are the areas of conflict, many of those of course around territorial issues, but how do you build guardrails to stop those sliding into a dangerous area and where might one look for competition?

Wang Huiyao: Thanks, Alvin. , I agree with what the professor Saich just said. And it was really not a coincidence that professor Saich actually shared quite a few similar views – I had dialogues with Graham Allison, with Joseph Nye and now Tony, all very famous Harvard professors.All of them actually don’t think the cold war is a better analogy for Sino-US relations. For example, Allison said it’s impossible to have a cold war, it’s not really an acceptance for the contemporary world, which is so internationally intertwined, particularly China and the US. I talked with Joseph Nye just 2 nights ago and he really thinks that Cold War was not the right way to put it. Because now this is different with the Soviet Union era or cold war era so that we shouldn’t really push for that because we are already Interconnected, Graham Allison even said, we are like linked twins, we can’t survive without each other.

Tony is a famous professor. I’ve known Tony for over many years. He has really great done great contribution to the Sino-US relations and exchanges and also for the Sino-US training cooperation activities, he’s the pioneer for the high-level officials  trainings. So, he knows China well. I agree, this is not really a best way to describe it. I noticed Biden’s speech on 100 days, which he gave just recently to the US Congress that he does not seek confrontation.

Can we make it into some kind of Olympic spirit that we can have  healthy peaceful competition, really, we should seek more collaboration, so the Climate Summit that just happened last week was a good example, leaders sat down to discuss issues virtually, that’s a good way to go into the future. I’m glad that Harvard professors have this kind of consensus as well, no cold war.Thank you.

Anthony Saich: I think on that way, I agree that there has to be competition. That doesn’t mean there’s not enough space for both countries to develop. Without going into detail, it’s quite clear that we have different values. There are many things that Americans find objectionable about Chinese practices. And of course, there’re many things in Beijing that people find problematic with American behavior and those things being made very clear. I think the one thing that China has realized better than America is that future competition is about geoeconomics rather than, saying a Cold War, which also included very strong military components. Now that’s not to say that in the potential for military challenges, but I think where China has been moving ahead and Washington’s been slow to catch up on is with its outbound projects with the belt and road. That is gaining traction in the economy. And I think one of the challenges for America is that you begin to see an emerging Asia, an economic Asia which increasingly has China at the core, because of its trade and investment, where America has been left somewhat behind. But do you still have the remnants and the strength, in fact of the security in Asia, which still has America at the core. We still have a very strong band of alliances that China really doesn’t possess. While the previous administration, maybe let those alliances wilt, I think it’s clear that the Biden administration sees part of its strategy as reviving those alliances. My hope would be that it wouldn’t just be reviving it as a military alliance, but it would also extend to better economic development in corporation.

Wang Huiyao: Great, that’s right. That’s exactly we should work on then, China is actually seeking economic collaborations with the region. For example, RCEPwas signed last November and now it’s trying to join the CPTPP. ASEAN is already becoming largest trading partner with China. Of course, geopolitically, as you said, they still probably more relied on in the US on the balance as well. So, I would really hope that as time goes on, and ASEAN – Asia Pacific really becomes a bigger market and China can be a major contributor. Maybe we can stabilize the situation and we are playing less political, even for the Quad. Maybe we could make it more economic rather than a strategic or military base. I think you’re right.

Anthony Saich: Yeah, I do think that it was a major error for the United States to disengage from the TPP process. Because it would have kept the United States with a strong role in the Asia region. I can see the logic, I can see the arguments why and it’s also debatable whether the Biden administration would go back into that particular agreement, given that Hillary Clinton also ran against it in 2016. But, as you sort of begin to suggest, it does set a challenge for many of those countries in Asia. And my sense is, pre-pandemic, traveling in the region, the most those countries did not want to be put in a position where they had to choose between China or the United States, or at least, they did not want to be pushed to choose publicly to make a choice. And those pressures are not going away at the present time.

Wang Huiyao: We really need US and China to work together with the pandemic. You’re absolutely right.