在2010年9月28日CCTV财经记者芮成刚采访巴菲特和比尔盖茨时,芮成刚向他们提出了这样的问题:“有人说市场是可以预测的,比如说巴菲特可以坐拥大笔金钱,静观其变,一旦危机发生,就出手,获得巨额利润。但是还是有人认为,市场是不可预测的,你需要在市场上平均地投资。对你们来说,这两种方式,哪种更好?”
我们看比尔盖茨和巴菲特是如何回答的:
比尔盖茨:“Well, you can not
predict the market,but in the long run,the
value of a firm in the market will tend to
approximate its ture economy value, and so
Warren's
brilliance is that he understand, he looks
the business and he can get a sense of
what the profit stream of that business
will be, not exactly but within a range.
And so I know way less about markets than
Warren does, and yeah, even I know they
are unpredictable. The long run is to be
smart about businesses not, not really the
market。虽然你不能预测市场,但是时间一长,一家公司的价值就能显现。而巴菲特能累积上亿的资产,都是因为他能在一定范围内感知一个生意的利润流(CCTV译成“信息流”),但是我对市场了解比较少,不过我还是清楚市场是不可预测的。从长远的角度来说,我们要明智地做生意,而非只关注市场。”
巴菲特是这样回答的:“Yeah,Your view is to
attempt to time the
market. I really don't know how to time
the market. I may have pensions and cash
available at a
good time, but (it) wasn't (a fact).because I didn't have much
better investments all through out of Berkshire industry.So we
really want to be in good business.We don't worry about the
timing,We do regard,we do worry about the pricing.and there's, we
want to buy a business in intellegent prices
others. sometimes you get many
more oportunities for that another times
. But I'm not standing there when I buy
a stock ,even the fall of 2008 and I think it
will go up in next week or next month or even next year. I'm
thinking I'm getting a lot from my money.
and if I get a lot from my money, the rest will take care of
itself!我可能会在适当的时候有足够的资金,我们都想要大量生意机会,但也需要良好的时机。我们不用担心机遇问题,关键是市场价格问题,因为有时候你的机遇很多,而有时少。即使是2008年秋天,很多人都说我下周或者下个月就会退出市场,但是我却赚的很多。(CCTV译文)”
看CCTV的中文字幕,似乎与巴菲特的原文不完全一致。老巴的原文听了不下10遍,越发感觉CCTV的中文字幕翻译有的地方不对,不是原意思。看来不懂投资的人翻译老巴东西有很大的误差。因此在网友"betterlife"和“W810”的帮助下,将盖茨和巴菲特回答的英文原文听后记录下来,以便理解他们的原意。由于是听后记录,难免有错。
听巴菲特的回答,实际上包含了如下对投资最有意义的中心含义:
“我们不去预测市场变化的时机(To time the
market),我们不担心市场的变化时机(timing)问题,我们只关心是否是合适价格(pricing)的问题(we don't
worry about the timing, wo do regard,we do
warry about the
pricing)。我们最关心的是以一个明智的价格收购企业(To buy business oters in intelligent
price).
----很明显,巴菲特把价格是否合适作为投资的第一要素。
价格只要合适了,就不用担心市场将会如何变化的问题。
当然了,能够判断出价格是否合适,肯定是以已经理解了企业的内在价值为前提的,就不赘述了。
看CCTV的中文翻译,好像没有突出这个含义,这是我反复听电视采访中巴菲特英文原话后得出的启发。