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闲来无事发了两封信,给罗杰斯,还有下一个大泡泡的作者

(2006-08-16 15:17:07)
结果回信如下:

1,罗杰斯的回信

Thanks for your terrific message. Successful investors do their own research and make their own decisions.

I did start a raw materials INDEX back on 1 August 1998 for the reasons I explained in my book. It is up 230% or so since founding. The INDEX fund connected with it is available.

Merrill Lynch has a TRAKR linked to the Index. It is listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange so is widely available. Merrill also has other products tied to the Index.  

ABN-AMRO has listed an ETF based on the Index in Germany and Switzerland so it too is widely available. 

                                                                        jbaer@upsecurities.com

and

tchavez@rcglsg.com can also help.

Others with products are:

 ABN-AMRO

Barclays

Credit Suisse

Daiwa Securities

DBS

Deutsche Bank

Macquarie

yoshiro.akinaga@sankishoji.co.jp

UBS

The Rogers Diapason Index Funds trade on the Dublin Exchange.

stephan.wrobel@diapason-cm.com

and/or 

lionel.motiere@diapason-cm.com

 

It will decline if commodities decline since it is an INDEX fund. It is an INDEX fund so no one "Manages" it.

The bull market in commodities may go on for several more years as I explain in my book although there will be big consolidations along the way as there always have been in every bull market in history.

Editorial Review
It's the ultimate road trip. Legendary investor Jim Rogers and his fiancée travel to 116 countries in a custom-built four-wheel-drive bright yellow Mercedes. Over three years, they make their way through war zones, are guarded by military convoys, observe a fifty-million-person pilgrimage, eat disgusting food, put the car on barges for transport between countries, and have their lives threatened at every turn. As well as describing his adventures,
Rogers has plenty to say about the economies and roads he encounters on his journey. (Naturally, he's driven on the best roads and the worst.) With his keen financial acumen, he picks out those countries with the highest prospective economic success and which ones are headed for disaster. All in all, a wonderful trip.

"If Warren Buffett and Bill Bryson were trapped in a car with each other for three years, they might write like Jim Rogers." (B.O.T Editorial Review Board)

Rogers, a Wall Street success story who has been called "The Indiana Jones of Finance," once circled the planet on a motorcycle, which landed him in The Guinness Book of World Records and resulted in his first book, Investment Biker (1994). In 1999 he set out on another world-record drive around the world in a custom-built yellow Mercedes convertible with his fiancée, Paige Parker. Starting out in Iceland, the trip took three years and encompassed 116 countries, many of which are rarely visited, in a continuous swath across Europe, the former Soviet Republic, China, Africa, the Middle East, and the Americas. No one had ever driven overland following these routes, a total of 152,000 miles, another Guinness world record. Rogers' insightful commentary on the political and historical topography of these diverse countries cuts through stereotypes to give us a glimpse of the world the way it really is, for better or worse. This is a gutsy travelogue adventure from a guy who shoots straight from the hip, and it really hits the mark. David Siegfried
Copyright American Library Association. All rights reserved

You can order my book ADVENTURE CAPITALIST [Random House] from


http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index%3Dbooks%26field-titleid%3D1424139%26ve-field%3Dnone/qid%3D/102-7686484-9696912

or

800-201-3550

or on my own website if the link above does not work


2,下一个大泡泡的hsdent工作室回信

Charles Sizemore

Research Analyst

HS Dent

Thank you for your inquiry.  We do, in fact, see East Asia doing well in the years before 2010.  We specifically mention Asia as an investment option after 2010 because we see it as an alternative to the US and European markets, which we forecast will be in a bear market.  But certainly, Asia has excellent potential now, as well as after 2010. 

 

With respect to China, we are somewhat reluctant to recommend Chinese stocks because the strong presence of the state as a large shareholder of many companies causes some distortions that limit the effectiveness of our models.  The Chinese stock market does not reflect the underlying strength of the Chinese economy, as I'm sure you have noticed.  Though China's economy has been in an incredible boom in recent years, Chinese stocks have not done as well. 

 

While we are definitely optimistic about the Chinese economy in general, we feel more comfortable recommending some of China's neighbors, such as South Korea, for the purposes of stock market investment

 

And finally, with respect to your question on buying in November and selling in April, it is true that most of the seasonal stock market trends that have been observed in the US are probably not applicable in China.  Given time, China's market will develop its own patterns.

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