美国东部时间 2023 年 11 月 27 日下午 5：01

作者：Suvrat Kotharihttps://cdn.motor1.com/images/mgl/400MkA/s3/ultium-cells-llc-battery-plant-in-warren-ohio.jpg

锂离子电池通常被认为是电动汽车中最昂贵的组件。然而，在过去的 10 年里，它的价格以惊人的速度下跌。

根据彭博新能源基金会（BNEF）的数据，2013年，锂离子电池的平均价格为每千瓦时780美元。快进十年，平均电池成本为 139 美元/千瓦时，BNEF 表示这是历史最低水平——比 2022 年的价格低 12%。这一下降部分归因于产能的扩大以及原材料和零部件成本的下降。

“今年又是电池价格紧随原材料价格的一年。在我们进行这项调查的多年中，价格下跌是由规模学习和技术创新推动的，但这种动态已经改变，“BNEF储能高级助理Evelina Stoikou说。“今年价格的下降归因于整个价值链的产能大幅增长，以及需求弱于预期，”Stoikou补充道。

这个想法似乎很简单：更便宜的电池应该意味着消费者更实惠的电动汽车。但现实情况要复杂一些。一些电池制造商面临着工厂使用率下降的问题，电动汽车需求的增长并没有完全满足几家汽车制造商的雄心勃勃的期望。事实上，电池价格实际上在 2022 年，是几年来首次上升，从 150 美元/千瓦时上涨到 161 美元/千瓦时，然后今年再次下跌。

此外，电池成本的下降，还没有体现在电动汽车的大规模生产中——只有特斯拉是个例外。汽车制造商并不总是将节省的成本转让给消费者。我们已经知道，原始设备制造商在电动汽车上损失了大量资金，他们可能的目标是尽可能减少这些损失。人们还可以争辩说，更便宜的电池可能不足以抵消资本密集型电动汽车生产和相关成本。

例如，通用汽车推迟了雪佛兰 Equinox EV、Silverado EV 和 GMC Sierra EV 的上市，理由是具有挑战性的市场条件和“工程升级的需要”。其位于田纳西州的Ultium Cell工厂是与LG化学合资企业的一部分，也被推迟到明年。福特还宣布推迟位于肯塔基州哈丁县的BlueOval SK电池工厂，理由是电动汽车的采用速度慢于预期。

然而，事情似乎正朝着正确的方向发展。一项研究发现，北美现在是世界上增长最快的计划中的电池制造中心，这一努力在一定程度上得益于《通胀削减法案》的激励措施和法则。拜登政府最近宣布再投资35亿美元，用于在全国范围内生产先进电池和电池矿物，以减少对中国的依赖。此外，美国至少有10家新的电池工厂正在建设中，还有更多工厂正在建设中。

有一点很清楚，对于汽车制造商来说，这是一个陡峭的学习曲线，这就是为什么可以安全地假设消费者可能需要几年时间——不能明确地说有多少年——才能获得电池价格下跌的好处。

原文阅读

Lithium-Ion Battery Prices Hit Record Low, But EVs Still Remain Expensive. Here's Why

Falling raw material and component prices have contributed to this trend.

Nov 27, 2023 at 5:01pm ET

By: Suvrat Kothari

The lithium-ion battery is often considered the most expensive component in an EV. However, its prices have fallen at a remarkable rate over the past 10 years.

In 2013, the average price of a lithium-ion battery was $780 per kilowatt-hour, according to the Bloomberg New Energy Foundation (BNEF). Fast forward by a decade, and the average battery cost is $139/kWh, which BNEF says is a record low—12 percent lower than prices in 2022. This decline can be attributed partly to the expanded production capacity and the decreasing costs of raw materials and components.

“It is another year where battery prices closely followed raw material prices. In the many years that we’ve been doing this survey, falling prices have been driven by scale learnings and technological innovation, but that dynamic has changed,” said Evelina Stoikou, energy storage senior associate at BNEF. “The drop in prices this year was attributed to significant growth in production capacity across the value chain in combination with weaker-than-expected demand,” Stoikou added.

The idea seems straightforward: cheaper batteries should mean more affordable EVs for consumers. But the reality is a bit more intricate. Some battery manufacturers have faced lower factory usage, and the growth in EV demand hasn't quite met the ambitious expectations of several carmakers. In fact, battery prices actually shot up in 2022 for the first time in several years, increasing from $150/kWh to $161/kWh, before falling again this year.

Moreover, the mass production of EVs hasn't reached a level where the benefits of reduced battery costs can be fully reflected in the final price—Tesla being an exception. Automakers might not always pass on the cost savings to consumers. We already know that OEMs are losing a significant amount of money on EVs, and they might be aiming to cut those losses where they can. One could also argue that cheaper batteries are probably not enough to offset the capital-intensive EV production and associated costs.

For instance, General Motors has pushed back the launch of the Chevy Equinox EV, Silverado EV, and GMC Sierra EV citing challenging market conditions and the “need for engineering upgrades.” Its Ultium Cell plant in Tennessee, part of a joint venture with LG Chem, is also delayed until next year. Ford has also announced delays at the BlueOval SK battery plant in Hardin County, Kentucky, citing slower-than-expected EV adoption.

However, it appears that things are headed in the right direction. One study found that North America was now the fastest-growing planned battery cell manufacturing hub in the world, an effort fueled in part by incentives and provisions from the Inflation Reduction Act. The Biden administration recently announced another $3.5 billion for the domestic production of advanced batteries and battery minerals across the country to reduce reliance on China. Moreover, at least 10 new battery plants are under construction stateside, and more are on their way.

One thing is clear, it's a steep learning curve here for carmakers and that's why it’s safe to assume that it could take a few more years—can’t definitively say how many—before consumers can reap the advantages of falling battery prices.