美国东部时间2023 年 6 月 9 日中午12:40

作者：Suvrat Kothari

卡内基梅隆大学和耶鲁大学发表在《美国国家科学院院刊》上的一项研究得出的结论是，到 2030 年，纯电动汽车 (BEV) 预计将占乘用车的大部分或接近大部分。

该研究将买家对 BEV 的情绪转变归因于多种因素，包括电池成本，根据调查结果，电池成本在 2010 年至 2021 年期间下降了十分之一。此外，根据研究，平均续驶里程提高了 200%，而能源效率提高了 15%。BEV 选择的增加也促成了客户偏好的变化。

研究人员还进行了市场模拟，假设 BEV 产品广泛可用且具有可比性，到 2030 年电动汽车和 SUV 将占据大约一半的市场份额。他们强调，技术改进是更广泛采用电动汽车的关键。

当 BEV 与汽油同行一起提供时，它们 (BEV) 更有可能在 2030 年之前夺取一半的市场份额，即使激励措施被取消也是如此。

在具体车型方面，该研究表明，到 2030 年，消费者可能更喜欢日产聆风而不是 Versa，更喜欢Mini Electric而不是 Mini Cooper 两厢车，更喜欢BMW i4而不是 4 系 Gran Coupe。消费者可能对现代 Kona 和Kona Electric以及沃尔沃 XC40 和XC40 Recharge等车型有均衡的偏好。

该研究的消费者选择分析因素会影响汽车的支付意愿 [溢价] (WTP) 估计。根据品牌和型号，当前买家对汽油车的 BEV 对应物的 WTP 在 6,600-12,000 美元之间。到 2030 年，随着续航里程、成本和技术的预计改进，汽车的 WTP 估计可能会下降到 5,300-8,000 美元之间。

以下是该研究的摘录，表明消费者购买电动汽车的意愿预计将发生怎样的变化：

对消费者为车辆属性支付意愿的估计表明，BEV 相对于汽油车的任何可感知劣势通常会被 BEV 改进的运营成本、加速和快速充电能力所弥补，尤其是对于续航里程更长的 BEV。

你对这些预测有共鸣吗？在评论中留下您的想法。

资料来源：美国国家科学院院刊

原文

Electric Cars Poised To Capture Majority US Market Share By 2030

A research paper by Carnegie Mellon and Yale University indicates that EVs will dominate the US car market by 2030

Jun 09, 2023 at 12:40pm ET

By: Suvrat Kothari

A Carnegie Mellon and Yale University study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences has concluded that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to constitute a majority or near-majority of passenger cars by 2030.

The study attributes the shift in buyer sentiment towards BEVs to multiple factors, including the cost of batteries, which have dropped by a factor of ten between 2010 and 2021, as per the findings. Additionally, the average driving range has improved by 200 percent, while energy efficiency has grown by 15 percent, as per the study. An increase in BEV choices also contributed to the change in customer preferences.

The researchers also conducted a market simulation, which suggests that electric cars and SUVs would account for roughly half the market share by 2030, assuming widely available and comparable BEV offerings. They highlight that technological improvements are key to the wider adoption of electric vehicles.

When BEVs are offered alongside gasoline counterparts, they (BEVs) hold a greater chance of capturing half the market share by 2030, even if incentives are rolled back.

In terms of specific models, the study suggests that by 2030, consumers might prefer the Nissan Leaf to the Versa, the Mini Electric instead of the Mini Cooper hatchback, and the BMW i4 instead of the 4 Series Gran Coupe. Consumers are likely to have a balanced preference for models like the Hyundai Kona and Kona Electric, and the Volvo XC40 and XC40 Recharge.

The study’s consumer choice analysis factors in the willingness-to-pay [a premium] (WTP) estimate for cars. Current buyers’ WTP is between $6,600-12,000 for BEV counterparts of gasoline vehicles, depending on the make and model. By 2030, with projected improvements in range, costs, and technology, the WTP estimate for cars could fall between $5,300-8,000.

Here’s an excerpt from the study that indicates how consumer willingness to buy EVs is expected to shift:

Estimates of consumer willingness to pay for vehicle attributes show that any perceived disadvantages of BEVs relative to gasoline vehicles are often compensated by the BEV’s improved operating cost, acceleration, and fast-charging capabilities, particularly for BEVs with a longer range.

Do you resonate with these projections? Leave your thoughts in the comments.

Source: PNAS