高盛表示，加油站的燃油价格将变得更糟

作者：斯蒂芬·里弗斯|发表于 2022 年 6 月 8 日

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全国各地的汽油价格飙升，平均价格接近每加仑 5 美元。政府可能正在努力寻找缓解泵压力的解决方案，但根据高盛的说法，未来看起来更糟。这家投资银行集团的经济学家预测，今年晚些时候价格会上涨约 34%。

据《商业内幕》报道，该公司周二表示，虽然预计今年晚些时候每桶石油的平均价格将达到 140 美元左右的上限，但对于加油站的消费者来说，它会达到160 美元。这比今天每桶 119 美元的成本增加了 34.45%。

当然，这最终可能会使全国平均约每加仑 6.70 美元。请记住，我们谈论的是普通的 85 或 87 辛烷值汽油。目前，全国范围平均价格为 5.55 美元，而如今越来越多的汽车，该价格将上涨 34% ，达到7.43 美元。

相关： 纽约在 2022 年剩余时间内暂停汽油税，以缓解泵的压力

高盛首席大宗商品策略师杰夫·柯里 (Jeff Currie) 表示：“今年夏天，当需求季节性达到顶峰时，价格仍有可能大幅飙升。” 有趣的是，与高油价有关的主要问题之一不是战争，也不是石油产量低。

相反，大部分紧缩来自缺乏炼油能力或将原油转化为汽油和柴油的能力。事实上，该分析特别指出，目前存在“前所未有的炼油短缺”。一场看似全新的燃油危机正在推动整个系统的行动，包括暂停燃油税的州。

上周，我们报道了纽约暂停征收汽油税的消息，将持续到今年年底，最终使该州损失超过 5 亿美元的收入。不过，考虑到它们通常从总价格中扣除不到 0.50 美分，即使是这些类型的解决方案也没有多大作用。

Goldman Sachs Says That Fuel Prices At The Pump Are Going To Get A Lot Worse

BY STEPHEN RIVERS | POSTED ONJUNE 8, 2022

Gas prices are soaring across the country and the national average is nearing $5 per gallon. The government might be working hard to find solutions to ease the pressure at the pump but according to Goldman Sachs, the future looks even worse. Economists at the investment banking group have predicted that it’ll feel like there’s roughly a 34 percent bump in prices later this year.

According to Business Insider, the firm said on Tuesday that while it expects the average price for a barrel of oil to hit a cap somewhere around $140 later this year, to the consumer at the pump it’ll feel more like $160. That’s a 34.45 percent increase over the $119 cost associated with a barrel today.

Of course, that could end up putting the national average somewhere around $6.70 per gallon. Keep in mind too that we’re talking about regular 85 or 87-octane gasoline. The national average right now for premium, which more cars are running these days, is $5.55. A 34 percent bump on that price would make the new total $7.43.

Related: New York Suspends Gas Tax For The Rest Of 2022 To Ease Pressure At The Pump

“A large spike in prices remains quite possible this summer when demand seasonally reaches its peak,” Jeff Currie, a chief commodities strategist from Goldman Sachs said. Interestingly enough, one of the major issues with regard to high gas prices isn’t the war and it isn’t low production of oil.

Instead, much of the crunch comes from a lack of refining capacity or the ability to turn crude oil into gasoline and diesel. In fact, the analysis specifically says that there’s “an unprecedented refining shortage” right now. What seems like an all-new fuel crisis is pushing action from all over the system including states which are suspending their fuel taxes.

Last week, we reported on a suspension of the gas tax in New York that will last until the end of the year and ultimately cost the state more than $500 million in revenue. Even those sorts of solutions aren’t doing a great deal, though, considering that they often remove less than 0.50 cents from the total price.

TAGSFUEL, REPORTS, USA