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张五常博客

张五常教授的文章

制度主义时代

薛兆丰的个人网站,有很多参考书目,对入门人士尤佳

万科周刊

经济学爱好者的好去处

人大经济论坛

想找教科书的好去处

香港的经济学论坛

看看香港的学子怎么学习经济学的吧

经济与自由博客

两位美国教授的博客,还有采访的mp3下载

朱锡庆

很多关于日常生活的经济分析

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Despite his many controversies, Steven Cheung might be the only economist that has offered a comprehensive explanation of China's miraculous ascendancy in economic pecking order during the past three decades.

His latest work, The Economic System of China, attempts to explain China's economic success from the perspectives of contracts and sharecropping. His theories rest on two of his seminal work, The Theory of Share Tenancy and The Contractual Nature of The Firm, that laid out the foundation of neo-institutional economics. 

However, his contribution has been ignored in the economics profession. The recent Nobel economics prize was awarded to two economists who studied the problem of rent dissipation of common resources, a field that Cheung had ploughed and sown seeds well
This article highlights an important demographic shift in China. Fewer students are entering the job market because the one-child policy's consequences finally come into play. It carries two implications. First, those who are already a professional will enjoy higher salaries (due to less competition). Second, schools and universities will face redundancies in teachers and teaching facilities. Bad news for business owners and teachers unless they find a way to treat employees and students better.

China's media independence has come a long way among countless setbacks. One recent setback involves the departure of Hu Shuli, the chief editor of Caijing, an outspoken business magazine in China. It's a rare thing that such a magazine could have survived the stiffening media control on the mainland for ten years. It's even rarer that Hu Shuli could have been tolerated time and again after she disclosed one dirty secrete after another on China's corruptive business circles. For some her resignation is just a worry that becomes true. For the entire business world, her opting out is another dim hope crushed. She vowed to return. So she did it. This time in an academic journal. Will she be able to turn the little-known News Magazine into another Caijing? Will her incisiveness be backed firmly by her new sp
Blame the economists?(2010-01-03 10:48)
The passing of Paul Samuelson spurred hot debate among economists on whether mathematical modelling of the economy was what made the mess today. Now the focus has been shifted to the economics profession as a whole. The economics profession, however, has been on the decline the moment when mathematics was upheld as the main subject. Mathematicians and physicists, among other science subject disciples, took refuge in economics, failing to realize their potential from where they came from. Economics papers abounded in mathematical formulas and jargons. Those who strenuously took economics as it is, i.e. to formulate a perspective to explain and uate an economic problem, were under attack for not containing enough mathematics in their writings. Old dogs gave way to new mathematical aspirants. An adverse sel

One of the key roles played by an underwriting investment bank is to support and stabilize the market once the new shares start trading. Usually the fall of share price below its initial offering level indicates the existence of over-pricing, which would harm the reputation of the newly-listed firm. Although much could be done before the trading date such as correct valuation, investor education, careful investor selection, the investment bank cannot control where the share price would eventually end up several days following the debut. What it could do is stabilize the price by intervening in the market, i.e. buying back some of the shares from those who want to get rid of them, usually small retail investors aiming at making quick profits. That’s why institutional investors are preferred and often touted at in the first place. They form corner stones to counter share price fluctuations. Despite this, investment banks nevertheless would have to put their own money at risk to suppo

Monsanto: sinner or saint(2009-11-27 21:55)
The world population is projected to reach 9 billion in 40 years, despite the drop in world fertility rates. Arable land is limited so crop yield enhancing is crucial to feed ever more mouths.

Companies that help boost crop yields are welcome. One such company is Monsanto, a chemical and agricultural company from the US that is notorious for inventing Agent Orange, a deadly chemical that caused body deformations to those victims of Vietnam war. However, it has helped raise America's average crop yield significantly above world average by its GM seeds and Roundup, a chemical weed killer.

The controversy is whether it is a sinner or a saint as the recent issue of The Economist debates.



秘笈一,自制投资表格

罗杰斯一直都记得1968年,当他开始在华尔街闯荡时,正是华尔街激情燃烧的岁月,股价常在一周内就翻了数倍。有一天,一个经纪人急急忙忙地来找他屋里的另一个分析师,他当时正在动手做一张金融总分析表格,经纪人就问他:“你做什么呢?”罗杰斯告诉对方自己的手头工作。此人不屑一顾地打击他说:“现在没人做这个。”

罗杰斯成名华尔街后,他的总分析表也广为流传。一开始,他的总分析表做得非常简单。罗杰斯会把利润率、净资产收益率,以及此前该公司的历史走势和状况列出来;随着年份增加,他会加入其他的数据,比如应收账款、库存等数据。从这些数字就可以看出这家公司的经营状况及走势。他的总分析表的时间跨度一般为10一15年,他认为这有利于自己用历史的眼光看待一家公司的发展。

 

Subprime mortgage might not be the smoking gun.

A recent paper shows that the deterioration in US subprime mortgage after 2004 could not explain the collapse of the subprime market. The paper demonstrated that the underwriting standards for US subprime mortgages had not weakened prior to the financial meltdown in 2008 as had been commonly believed. It is likely that the subprime mortgage was designed as 'bridge finance' to extend credit to borrowers to make quick gains from house price appreciation. Since 1995 and before 2006, house prices in the US had kept appreciating. During this period, subprime mortgage default rates were low as distressed borrowers could prepay either by refinance or by sale. However, once the house price failed to appreciate in 2006, subsequent subprime mortgage borrowers were in trouble making payments and default rates spiked. 
RMB to become a global currency?

News had it that RMB is to become the global currency, with all the likelihood that it would replace the USD in the near future. Is this possible? 

China is certainly motivated to depend less on the dollar. Sitting on a pile of the US currency, China is anxious to have the Fed behave in a responsible manner. The recent spike in the yield of long-term Treasury bonds kept China's central bankers awake at night. Depreciation of the green buck would mean all the hard-earned savings would be eroded by inflation. Nothing would suit China better than have the savings measured on its terms.

Currency serves three purposes: as unit of measure, as medium of exchange and store of value. And the significance of a currency depends on the strength of the economy it represents. No wonder US dollar dominated the world. Now times have changed. The US economy has been hit hard
Green Dam and HKU's mainland recruitment interview

The Green Dam saga has also entered University of Hong Kong's (HKU) recruitment interview question list. The question list challenges the mainland candidate to jump out of their mental box and also demonstrates how Hong Kong's tertiary education values individual thinking and creativity.

In June, potential mainland candidates were invited by HKU's recruitment teachers to attend interviews, during which they were asked to expressed their views on subjects ranging from Michael Jackson to Green Dam. Some were apparently caught off guard. Michael Jackson's passing was indeed a hit but his personality and influence was less illuminated than his songs among the young. Also less discussed is the news that the Green Dam is going to be installed on all new PCs shipped after July 1. 

As I was among the first few who went to study at a Hong Kong unive