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Sell Stocks, Buy Cows: Casey

(2011-06-15 18:26:18)
标签:

财经

出国

股票

黄金

教育

期货

石油

时文阅读

投资

雅思

分类: 财经

Sell Stocks, Buy Cows: Casey

抛出股份,买牛: Casey

Feeling lost in your quest for fresh money-making opportunities these days? Well, you're not alone. Even a globe-trotting speculator like Doug Casey, whose namesake firm, Casey Research, prides itself on being "intensely curious, focused on facts," says there just aren't many good places to hide anymore.

"Good investment ideas are not thick underfoot these days," says Casey. "The next few years will be marvelous from the point of view of a speculator, but horrible for the average guy." Casey's definition of a speculator is not a gambler or a trader, but rather someone who capitalizes on politically caused distortions in the marketplace, and he's expecting a lot of them. As such, and not surprisingly, Casey loves gold and hates the dollar.

On the former, Casey sees the bull market in gold eventually entering a "mania stage," which he thinks could push it to $5,000 an ounce. Even so, he says the recent run-up to $1,500 is cause for "hesitation." Still, broadly he advises that people "should own a lot of gold."

As for the dollar, and major currencies in general, his commentary is more caustic, as he blasts the long-term washout that looms as a result of "trillions of currency units that all these stupid governments are creating."

Casey openly does not like to link his predictions with timelines. He says in the years to come, the dollar will trade to its intrinsic value (as in -- be worth the paper it's printed on), which "will be quite ugly." This despite his belief that "the EU is going to fall apart and euro will cease to exist" within the next five to 10 years.

感到这些天没有抓住赚钱的最佳时机?当然,你不是唯一的。即使像道格·凯西的经验丰富的投机家也称不再有许多好投资地方。Casey研究公司是以根据姓名取名的公司,以“强烈好奇,注重事实”而闻名。

“好的投资观念如今也不是什么问题,”C称。“从投机者观点来看,接下来几年将是不可思议的,但是对普通人而言又是可怕的。”C对投机者的理解即不是赌徒,也不是交易家,而宁可理解为一些可以利用政治导致市场发生扭曲的人。而且他正期望市场发生大量畸形。就此,不必过于惊讶,C喜欢黄金,讨厌美元。

前一段时间,C看到了黄金牛市最终进入“躁期”,他希望黄金最终可以升值到5000美元一盎司。虽然如此,他称最近黄金只涨到1500美元一盎司是犹豫的原因。当然,他很推崇人们应该大量持有黄金。

对于美元以及世界其它几种主要货币,他的评论更加刻薄。他谴责各国政府愚蠢制造出数十万亿的货币,令货币价值可能长期地被销蚀。

C的直接与他时间线的预测有所不同。他称美元以内在价值交易的时代即将来临(这是指美元的价值只有纸张和印刷费用加起来的价格),美元的内在价值就是一文不值。他还认为在五到十年内,欧盟将解体,而且欧元将不存在。

Casey says "your biggest single risk is political. You must diversify so all your money isn't in the control of one government." He says he's heavily diversified outside of the U.S., and "bought a lot of agricultural land in Argentina." True to his word, Casey now spends most of his time living and investing in South America.

So if you already own gold and you're not moving to South America, what else looks good?

"I am a big believer in cattle," he says. "I recommend building herds, both dairy and beef," because he says it's probably the cheapest major market he can think of. Interestingly, he has no interest in trading cattle futures.

And if you're not quite ready to embrace farming, he has one other suggestion: "I would be short bonds. You can make a killing doing that."

C称“你最大的单一风险便是政治,你必须让你的资金多样化,不受政府控制。他说他在美国外有了很多投资,而且在阿根廷买了大量农场。他所言非虚,C现在花了大部分时间在南美生活,而且大部分投资者在南美。

因此如果你已持有黄金,而且你并没有去南美,选择其它什么好?“我对奶牛很有信心,”他说到。“我推荐养一群,包括奶牛和肉牛,”因为他称这可能是他可以想到的最廉价的主要市场。有趣的时,他对奶牛期货的交易不感兴趣。

如果你没有做好经营农场的准备,他还有另一个建议:“我可能目前短浅,你也许不屑于做此事。:

http://finance.yahoo.com/

 

 

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