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A Good Time to Trade in That Gently Used Car

(2011-06-11 17:36:58)
标签:

财经

股票

黄金

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期货

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分类: 财经

A Good Time to Trade in That Gently Used Car

折价出售轻度使用二手车的好时机

Used-vehicle prices hit record highs; no new-car smell necessary with strong demand for fuel-efficient models.

That three-year-old car sitting in the driveway may not seem so exciting anymore, but to some car dealers it could be gold.

Informed shoppers with well-maintained cars to trade in have an unusual opportunity to take advantage of what industry analysts say is a record peak in used-car prices. Resale and trade-in values for late-model vehicles in good condition have been rising all year as demand has outstripped supply, particularly for fuel-efficient models.

Among the forces driving up used-car values is a shortage of many popular Japanese models due to production slowdowns following the March earthquake. And the sales collapse during the 2008 and 2009 financial crisis means fewer two- and three-year-old cars are available.

The National Automobile Dealers Association last week raised values again on many small- and medium-size cars in its latest Used Car Guide, which is widely used by dealers when deciding what to offer for cars taken as trade-ins.

A one-year-old Honda Civic that NADA's Used Car Guide valued at $14,275 in May is now estimated to be worth $15,950. "The same car," says Jonathan Banks, NADA's executive auto analyst.

二手车价格又创新高,在节能车型的强劲需求下,似乎没有对新车需求。

三年前的老款车行驶在路上可能不再让人兴奋,但是对一些汽车经理人而言,这些车可能是黄金。

一些持有保养较好地二手车的消息灵通购物者在抵价购物时,将有一个前所未有的机会利用业内分析师称之为二手车售价历史峰值中的优势。在需求大于供应的情况下,特别是对节能车型的需求,性能良好老款车的二手价格和抵价购物价格全年都有所提升。

在三月日本地震导致日本产量下降后,许多日本流行车型的缺货驱使了二手车价格上升。而且在2008年和2009年的金融危机时汽车销售的倒塌意味着两或三年前款式的车型更少。

上周美国汽车经销商协会在它最新的二手车指南里再次提高了许多小中型车的价格,当汽车经销商决定对什么样的车采取降价出售时,普遍用此二手车指南进行参考。

一台使用一年本田思域,美国汽车经销商协会的二手车指南里5月的估价是14275美元,现在估价为15950美元。“就是同一辆车”美国汽车经销商协会高级汽车分析师说到。

KBB.com, the Web home of the Kelley Blue Book used-vehicle-pricing franchise, says a three-year-old Toyota Prius is worth, on average, $17,750 as a trade-in, up $6,050 from the value of a three-year-old Prius a year ago.

The market isn't booming for all types of vehicles. Large sport utility vehicles, such as a Ford Expedition or Chevrolet Tahoe are down less than 1% from a year ago, according to NADA's guide. Still, they are up nearly 5% from the start of the year.

Late-model, mid-size luxury cars -- a segment that includes the Mercedes E-Class and the BMW 5-series -- are worth about 6% more on average than a year ago, according to NADA.

"We have seen extremely strong pricing," says Jeremy Meyer, national manager for Audi's U.S. certified pre-owned sales operation. And "consumers are willing to pay those higher prices," he says.

Manheim Consulting, an arm of the big Manheim auto-auction business, has for years published an index of used-vehicle values. In May, that index, using a scale with a baseline set at 100 for January 1995, was 127.8 -- a record high.

For consumers, this is now a game of arbitrage and information gathering. Prices for many new vehicles are up, but not as much as values for in-demand, late-model used cars.

凯乐蓝皮书二手车价格的官方网站KBB.com称一台开过三年的丰田普锐斯平均抵价购物价格是17750元,比去年相同状态的车了6050美元。

不是所有的二手车的价格都在上涨。大型运动越野车,比如福特远征或雪佛兰塔荷比去年同期的价格下降了1%,据美国汽车经销商协会的二手车指南的数据。当然,这两款车比今年年还是上涨了5%。

“我们已看到了价格强势上扬,”奥迪美国认证二手车销售的本国经理JM说到。“而且消费者愿意出这么高的价,”他说到。

大型曼海姆汽车拍卖行的一个子公司,曼海姆咨询公司发布二手车价格指数已有数年。5月份的指数为127.8点,又创新高。此指数为1995年创立,使用的刻度基线是100点。

"The best case scenario is that you have a trade-in that is somewhat gas efficient, and you are ready to trade for a larger vehicle," says Jesse Toprak of Truecar.com, an auto-shopping and data site.

For people who have a leased car that's close to the end of its term, now is the time to figure out whether that car is worth more than the residual value assigned in the lease contract.

For example, a 2008 BMW 3-series has an average residual value of about $17,450, but a trade-in value of close to $20,000, according to data compiled by Truecar.

NADA's Mr. Banks says anyone with a leased car that's due to be returned should investigate the car's market value -- using the online NADA guide and shopping sites such as KBB.com, Edmunds.com, Cars.com or Ebay. Then be ready to bargain with the dealer to get a higher value than the one stipulated in the contract.

"Don't just hand over your keys," says Mr. Banks.

Realizing the extra value in a leased vehicle can be tricky, however. Selling a leased car to another individual could require buying it from the leasing company, then reselling it, and possibly paying sales tax.

“最好的方式是你抵价购物的那台车是节能型的,而且你准备交易一台大型车,”汽车消费和数据网站Truecar.com的JT说到。

对那些租车,且租期快满的朋友,现在是时候决定这辆车是否比租赁合同签订的剩余价值更值钱的时候了。

例如,一台2008年宝马的3系列平均剩余价值大概是17450美元,但是抵价购物的价格大概为2万美元,来自Truecar编辑的数据。

美国汽车经销商协会的B先生称,任何租车的人,在租期快满时都应该调查一下此车的市场价格 — 使用在线的美国汽车经销商协会指南和类似于KBB.com 、Edmunds.com、 Cars.com 或 Ebay的购物网站。然后准备与经销商还价,以得到一个比合同中签署价格更高价格。

“不要错过我的机会,”B先生说到。

然而认识到租用汽车的真实价格是明智的。把租车卖车其它之前是需要先从租车公司把此车买下,然后再卖它,而且可能要纳营业税。

Sergio Stiberman, chief executive of LeaseTrader.com, a site that enables the exchange of auto leases, says the easiest way is to use the difference between the purchase-option price written into the lease contract and the car's current market value as equity in a trade-in. The dealer can then work out the transaction with the leasing company and resell the car for a profit.

Dealers are stepping up efforts to snag high-quality used cars, while eyeing their inventories to make sure they don't get caught with too many vehicles at the top of the curve.

At Group One Automotive, a big Houston-based dealer chain, used-car managers are scouring Craigslist, and emailing past customers to find more of the cars that are selling best. But the company is keeping its used-car inventory at or below 30 days' supply.

"We have to have rational exuberance," says company spokesman Pete DeLongchamps.

Will used-car prices come back to earth? Most likely, though telling when is educated guess work, not science. Gasoline prices are edging down, which could cool demand for used hybrids and rejuvenate interest in second-hand SUVs.

租车交易中介网站LeaseTrader.com总裁SS称最简单的方法是得用租赁合同中买断的购买选择权的价格和汽车当前价格之间的不同作为抵价购物的资本。经销商随后便可与租车公司交易,然后再出售此车盈利。

经销商正在四处收罗性能好的二手车,而且观注着他们的存货清单以确保他们在波峰时没有购买过多的二手车。

总部在休斯顿的连锁汽车经销商一汽车集团的二手车经理正在搜寻 Craigslist网站,并且发邮件给过去的客户,以找到更多可以卖出最好价钱的车。但是公司一直把二手车的存货清单定在30天或低于30天的供应。

“我们不得不有一个理性的发展,”公司发言人PD说到。

二手车价格将回到现实?很可能,尽管算出的时间是有规律的推测,但是此推测是不科学的。汽油价格正在下降,这将下调混合动力二手车的需求,和激发二手越野车的需求。

Japanese car makers say they are ramping up production as they work out the problems getting critical parts from suppliers damaged by the earthquake. Once their factories are rolling, industry executives and analysts expect Toyota Motor Corp. and the other big Japanese brands will come out swinging with discount deals to get back the market share they've lost. The cheaper new cars get, the more likely used-car prices will moderate as well.

A longer-term factor in the current scarcity of late-model used cars is that so few cars were leased during the credit crisis and recession of 2008 and 2009. Higher sales in the past year will mean more supply for the used-vehicle market of a 2013 or 2014.

日本汽车产商称他们已解决了关键问题,从因地震受损供应商那里拿到了关键的零件,他们正在提高产量。一旦工厂正常动作,行业专家和分析师认为丰田汽车和其它一些大型汽车产商将会进行一些促销以拿出他们失去的市场份额。

目前旧款车稀缺的长期因素是在2008年和2009年的经济衰退和信用危机中,几乎没有租车业务。去年高价销售意味着2013和2014年将有更多的二手车供应。

http://finance.yahoo.com/

 

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