加载中…
个人资料
胡宁
胡宁
  • 博客等级:
  • 博客积分:0
  • 博客访问:23,553
  • 关注人气:11
  • 获赠金笔:0支
  • 赠出金笔:0支
  • 荣誉徽章:
相关博文
推荐博文
谁看过这篇博文
加载中…
正文 字体大小:

Dream Fly组  会计0702班 Learning Summary (of Chapter Six)

(2008-05-25 13:19:46)
标签:

管理学作业

07级会计2班

杂谈

    1. Question: Define decision and the decision-making process.

问:    定义决策和决策制定过程

Answer: Decision is a choice from two or more alternatives.

Decision-making is a set of eight steps that include identifying a problem, selecting an alternative, and evaluating the decision’s effectiveness.

答:决策就是在两个或更多的方案中做出一个选择。

决策制定过程就是一个包括识别问题、选择备择方案以及最终评估决策的结果等八个步骤的过程。

      2. Question: Describe the eight steps in the decision-making process.

问:    描述决策制定过程中的八个步骤

Answer: The eight steps includes: ① Identifying a problem ② Identifying decision criteria ③ Allocating weights to the criteria ④ Developing alternatives ⑤ Analyzing alternatives ⑥ Selecting an alternative ⑦ Implementing the alternative ⑧evaluating decision effectiveness.

 

答:这八个步骤包括:①识别决策问题 ②确认决策标准  ③为决策标准分配权重  ④开发备择方案   ⑤分析别择方案    ⑥选择备择方案   ⑦实施备择方案  ⑧ 评估决策结果

      3. Question: Discuss the assumptions of rational decision making.

问:    讨论理性决策制定的假设

Answer: Managerial decision making can be rational if the following conditions are met: The manager is faced with a simple problem in which the goals are clear and the alternatives limited, in which the time pressures are minimal and the cost of seeking out and evaluating alternatives is low, for which the organizational culture supports innovation and risk-taking, and in which the outcomes are relatively concrete and measurable.

The conditions of the assumptions of rational decision making:

1.       The problem is clear and unambiguous.

2.       A single, well-defined goal is to be achieved.

3.       All alternatives and consequence are known.

4.       Preferences are clear.

5.       Preferences are constant and stable.

6.       No time or cost constraints exist.

7.       Final choice will maximize payoff.

8.       The decision maker is assumed to be maximizing the organization’s interests, not his or her own interest.

Ø         The problem is clear and unambiguous.

Ø         A single, well-defined goal is to be achieved.

Ø         All alternatives and consequences are known.

Ø         Preferences are clear.

Ø         Preferences are constant and stable.

Ø         No time or cost constraints exist.

Ø         Final choice will maximize payoff.

 

Lead to

Rational

Decision

Making

答:管理决策的制定在下述条件下通常遵循理性假设,这些条件是,管理者面对的是简单的问题,在这些问题中,目标是清楚的,方案的数量是有限的,时间的压力是不大的,以及寻找和评估方案的成本较底。同时,组织的文化支持创新和承担风险。在这类决策问题中,结果相对来说是具体的和可度量的。

理性决策制定的假设条件:

1.问题是清楚地和不模糊的

2.要达到的是单一的、清楚定义的目标

3.所有的方案和结果是已知的

4.偏好是清晰的

5.偏好是不变的和稳定的

6.不存在时间和成本约束

7.最终选择将使汇报最大化

8.决策者需假设的是最大化组织的利益,而不是个人利益。

Exhibit 6-6 shows us the factors.

图6-6向我们展示了这些因素。

Ø         问题是清楚地和不模糊的

Ø         要达到的是单一的、清楚定义的目标

Ø         所有的方案和结果是已知的

Ø         偏好是清晰的

Ø         偏好是不变的和稳定的

Ø         不存在时间和成本约束

Ø         最终选择将使汇报最大化

 

导致

理性

决策

制定

 

      4. Question: Describe the concepts of bounded rationality, satisficing, and escalation of commitment.

问:    描述有限理性、满意和承诺升级

Answer:  Bounded rationality is decision-making behavior that is rational, but limited (bounded) by an individual’s ability to process information.

              Satisficing is acceptance of solutions that are “good enough”.

 Escalation of commitment is an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong.

答:有限理性的决策行为是理性的决策制定行为,但其受制于个人处理信息能力的局限性。

满意是指所接受的决策方案只是足够好的。

承诺升级是一种在过去决策的基础上,不断增加承诺的现象。尽管有证据表明已经做出的决策是错误的。

      5. Question:  Explain what intuition is and how it affects decision making.

问:     解释什么是直觉和它对制定决策的影响

Answer:  (1) What is intuition?

 Intuition is a power of understanding something without reasoning or proof. Managers regularly use their intuition and it may actually help improve their decision making. Intuitive decision making means making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment. Researchers studying managers’ use of intuitive decision making identified five different aspects of intuition, which are described in Exhibit 6-7(What is intuition?):

1.       Values or ethics-based decisions: Managers make decisions based on ethical values or culture.

2.       Experience-based decisions: Managers make decisions based on their past experiences.

3.       Affect-initiated decisions: Managers make decisions based on feelings or emotions.

4.       Cognitive-based decisions: Managers make decisions based on skills, knowledge, and training.

5.       Subconscious mental processing: Managers use data from subconscious mind to help them make decisions.

Intuition

Experience-based

decision

Values or ethics-

Based decisions

Affect-initiated decisions

Subconscious

mental processing

Cognitive-based

decisions

Managers use data from subconscious mind to help them make decisions

Managers make decisions based on skills, knowledge, and training

Managers make decisions based on ethical values or culture

Managers make decisions based on feelings or emotions

Managers make decisions

Based on their past experiences

答:(1)什么是直觉?

直觉是一种没有任何原因和证据而直接领悟事物本质的思维能力。管理者通常运用直觉来帮助他们改进决策的制定。直觉决策是一种潜意识的决策过程,基于决策者的经验,以及积累的判断。研究者对管理者运用直觉进行决策进行了研究,识别出五种不同的直觉,如图6-7所示(什么是直觉?):

 1、基于价值观或道德的决策:管理者根据道德价值观或文化制定决策

 2、基于经验的决策:管理者根据起过去的经验制定决策

3、影响发动的决策:管理者根据感觉或情绪制定决策

4、基于认知的决策:管理者根据技能、知识和训练制定决策

 5、潜意识的心理过程:管理者运用潜意识的信息帮助其制定决策

直觉

基于经验的决策

基于价值观或道德的决策

影响发动的决策

潜意识的心理过程

基于认知的决策

管理者运用潜意识的信息帮助其制定决策

管理者根据技能、知识和训练制定决策

管理者根据道德价值观或文化制定决策

管理者根据感觉或情绪制定决策

管理者根据起过去的经验制定决策



(2) How intuition affects decision making?

  Making a decision on intuition or “gut feeling” does not necessarily happen independently of rational analysis; rather, the two complement each other. A manager who has had experience with a particular, or even similar, type of problem or situation often can act quickly with what appears to be limited information. Such a manager does not rely on a systematic and thorough analysis of the problem or identification and evaluation of alternatives but instead uses his or her experience and judgment to make a decision.

(2)直觉是如何影响决策制定的?

根据直觉制定决策或者根据感觉制定决策并非与理性决策毫无关系,相反,二者是互补的。一个对特定情况或熟悉的事件有经验的管理者,当遇到某种类型的问题或情况时,通常会迅速地做出决策,虽然看上去他所获得的信息是十分有限的。这样的管理者并不依靠系统性的和详尽的问题分析或识别和评估多种备择方案,而是运用他自己的经验和判断来制定决策。

 

      6. Question:  Contrast programmed and nonprogrammed decisions.

问:      比较程序化和非程序化决策

Answer: Programmed decision is a repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach. Some problems are straightforward. The goal of the decision maker is easily defined and complete. Some situations are called structured problems, which are straightforward, familiar, and easily defined problems。Once the structured problem is defined, its solution is usually self-evident or at least reduced to a few alternatives that are familiar and have proved successful in the past。

  Nonprogrammed decision is a unique decision that requires a custom made solution. Many organizational situations involve unstructured problems, which are problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete. When problems are unstructured, managers must rely on nonprogrammed decision making in order to develop unique solutions. 

答:程序化决策是通过例行措施处理的,可重复性使用的决策方案。一些问题是一目了然的。决策制定者的目的是很容易制定和完成的。一些情况被叫做结构良好的问题,就是一目了然的、熟悉的、容易定义的问题。一旦结构化的问题被确定, 它的解决方案通常是不证自明的,或者至少被局限在少数的几个可供选择的方案上,而且这些方案是熟悉的和被过去的实践证明是成功的。

非程序化决策是唯一的、现裁现做的来解决问题的决策。很多组织的情况涉及到结构不良好的问题,即新颖的、不经常发生的、信息模糊的和不完整的问题。当管理者面临结构不良(或者独特)的问题时,(没有现成的解决方案,)他要求采用非结构化程序方法现裁现做,根据问题制定解决方案。

 

      7. Question:  Contrast the three decision-making conditions.

问:      比较三个决策制定的条件

Answer:  The three decision-making conditions are certainty, risk, and uncertainty.

          Certainty is a situation in which a manager can make accurate decisions because all outcomes are known.

          Risk is a situation in which the decision maker is able to estimate the likelihood of certain outcomes.

          Uncertainty is a situation in which a decision maker has neither certainty nor reasonable probability estimates available.

答:这三个决策制定的条件是确定性、风险性、不确定性。

确定性:在这种情况下管理者可以制定出精确的决策,因为每一种方案的结果是已知的。

风险性:在这种条件下,决策者能够估计出每一种备择方案的可能性或者结果。

不确定性:在这种情况下,决策制定者既不能肯定它的结果又不能对概率做出合理的估计。

 

作业完成组:Dream Fly

班级:会计0702

小组成员: 周思湘  200742070202

           李媛媛  200742070203

           段盛兰  200742070204

           张慧慧  200742070205

(从左至右:段盛兰、张慧慧、李媛媛、周思湘)

谢谢老师和助教辛苦帮我们批改作业,我们会继续努力!!!!!!^_^

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

0

阅读 评论 收藏 转载 喜欢 打印举报/Report
  • 评论加载中,请稍候...
发评论

    发评论

    以上网友发言只代表其个人观点,不代表新浪网的观点或立场。

      

    新浪BLOG意见反馈留言板 电话:4000520066 提示音后按1键(按当地市话标准计费) 欢迎批评指正

    新浪简介 | About Sina | 广告服务 | 联系我们 | 招聘信息 | 网站律师 | SINA English | 会员注册 | 产品答疑

    新浪公司 版权所有