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Chapter six   Thinking About Management Issues    CFG

(2008-05-25 13:15:17)
标签:

07级会计2班

管理学作业

杂谈

Chapter six   Thinking About Management Issues    CFG

王嘉琳  200742070210      

曹朝飞  200742070211

敬  骄  200742070212

李红燕  200742070213

1.  Why is decision making often described as the essence of a manager’s job?  为什么决策通常被描绘为管理者工作的实质?

Because everyone in an organization makes decision, but decision making is particularly important

In a manager’s job. As Exhibit shows:

          Decisions in the Management Functions

Planning

·What are the organization’s long-term objectives?

·What strategies will best achieve those objectives?

·What should the organization’s short-term objectives be?

·How difficult should individual goals be?

Leading

·How do I handle employees who appear to be low in motivation?

·What is the most effective leadership style in a given situation?

·How will a specific change affect worker productivity?

·When is the right time to stimulate conflict?

Organizing

·How many employees should I have report directly to me ?

·How much centralization should there be in the organization?

·How should jobs be designed?

·When should the organization implement a different structure?

Controlling

·What activities in the organization need to be controlled?

·How should those activities be controlled?

·When is a performance deviation significant?

·What type of management information system should the organization have?  

Decision making is a part of all four managerial functions. That’s why mangers-when they plan, organize, lead, and control-are frequently called decision makers. In fact, we can say that decision making is synonymous with managing.

因为组织中的每一个人都要制定决策,但决策更是管理者的重要职能。正如表:

                     管理职能中的决策

计划                                  领导

·组织的长期目标是什么?                ·我怎么处理雇员情绪低落的问题?

·什么战略能够最佳地实现这些目标?      ·在给定的条件下什么是最有效的领导方式?

·组织的短期目标应当是什么?            ·某项具体的变革会怎样影响工人的生产率?

·个人目标的难度应当有多大?            ·什么时候是鼓励冲突的适当时间?

组织                                  控制

·直接向我报告的雇员应当多大?          ·需要对组织中的哪些活动进行控制?

·组织应当有多大程度的集权?            ·怎么控制这些活动?

·职位应当怎么设计?                    ·绩效差异偏离到什么程度是显著的?

·什么时候组织应当实行不同的结构?      ·组织应当具有什么类型的管理信息系统?

制定决策是管理者所有四个职能的组成部分,这也是为什么管理者在计划、组织、领导和控制时通常被称为决策制定者的原因。事实上,我们可以说,决策制定是管理的同义语。

2.How might an organization’s culture influence the way managers make decision?   组织文化可能会对管理者制定决策的方式产生什么影响?

Because it constrains what they can and cannot do, an organization’s culture is a particularly relevant to managers. These constraints are rarely explicit. They’re not written down. It’s unlikely that they’ll even be spoken. But they’re there, and all managers quickly learn what to do and what not doing their organization. The link between values such as these and managerial behavior is fairly straightforward. If an organization’s culture supports the belief that profits can be increased by cost cutting and that the company’s best interests and served by achieving slow but steady increases in quarterly earnings, managers are unlikely to pursue programs that are innovative, risky, long term, or expansionary. For organizations that value and encourage workforce diversity, the organizational culture, and thus managers’ decisions and actions will be supportive of diversity efforts. In an organization whose culture conveys a basic distrust of employees, managers are more likely to use an authoritaritarian leadership style than a democratic one.因为组织文化约束人们应该做什么,不应该做什么,所以与管理者尤为相关.这些约束很少是清晰的,也没有用文字写下来,甚至很少听到有人谈论它们,但它们确实存在,而且组织中所有的管理者很快就会领会该做什么以及不该做什么。这些价值观与管理行为的联系是相当直观的。如果一个组织的文化支持这样的观点:削减费用能带来利润的增加,以及低速平稳增长的季度收入能给公司带来最佳利益的话,那么在这种情况下,管理者不可能追求创新的、有风险的、长期的或扩张的计划。由于组织重视并鼓励员工的多样性,组织文化以及管理者的决策和行动应当支持多样化的努力。在一个以对员工的不信任为基础的组织文化中,管理者更有可能采取独裁的领导方式,而不是民主的方式。

Planning

        The degree of risk that plans should contain

        Whether plans should be developed by individuals or teams

        The degree of environmental scanning in which management will engage

Organizing

        How much autonomy should be designed into employee’s jobs

        Whether tasks should be done by individuals or in teams

        The degree to which department managers interact with each other

Leading

        The degree to which managers are concerned with increasing employee job satisfaction

        What leadership styles are appropriate

        Whether all disagreements—even constructive ones—should be eliminated

Controlling

        Whether to impose external controls or to allow employees to control their own actions

        What criteria should be emphasized in employee performance evaluations

        What repercussions will occur from exceeding one’s budget

 

Dimensions of Organizational Culture: innovation and risk taking, stability, aggressiveness, team orientation, people orientation, outcome orientation, attention to detail.

Managers’ decision-making styles differ along two dimensions. The first is an individual’s way of thinking. The other dimension describes an individual’s tolerance for ambiguity.

受文化影响的管理决策

计划

        计划应包含的风险度

        计划应由个人还是团队制定 

        管理者参与环境扫描的程度

组织

        雇员在工作中应有的自主权程度

        任务应由个人还是团队来完成

        部门经理见的相互联系程度

                                  领导

        管理者关心雇员日益增长的工作满意度的程度

        哪种领导方式更为适宜

        是否所有的分歧——甚至是建设性的分歧——都应当消除       

                                  控制 

        是允许雇员控制自己的行为还是施加外部控制

        雇员绩效评价中应强调哪些标准

        个人预算超支将会产生什么反响

 

Dimensions of Organizational Culture: innovation and risk taking, stability, aggressiveness, team orientation, people orientation, outcome orientation, attention to detail.

Managers’ decision-making styles differ along two dimensions. The first is an individual’s way of thinking. The other dimension describes an individual’s tolerance for ambiguity.

我们可以用七个维度来准确地表示组织文化的精髓。这些维度即:关注细节、成果导向、员工导向、团队导向、进取性、稳定性、和创新与风险承受力。关于决策风格的一种观点假定人们决策方法上的差异表现为两个不同的维度。第一个是每个人的思维方式,另一个维度描述了个人的模糊承受力。当把这种维度画在一张图上的时候,我们就可以区分出四种不同的决策风格:命令型、分析型、概念型以及行为型。

           

            

        命令型风格   具有命令型风格的人往往具有较低的模糊承受力,他们在思考问题的方式上是理性的,他们讲究效率和逻辑性。命令型的决策制定简洁快速,关注短期的结果,他们在制定决策方面的效率和速度通常是由于只考虑少量的信息和评估少数的方案。

        分析型风格   具有分析型风格的决策者比具有命令型风格的人具有更大的模糊承受力,他们在制定决策之前试图得到更多的决策信息和考察更多的选择,这是他们与命令型风格者的不同之处。分析型风格的决策者是以谨慎为特征的,具有适应和符合某些特殊情况的能力。

        概念型风格    具有概念型风格的人趋向于具有广泛的看法和愿意考察更多的选择,他们关注决策的长期结果,以及非常愿意寻求解决问题的创造性方案。

        行为型风格    具有行为型风格的决策者同其他人相处得很好,他们关注下级的成就和愿意接受来自下级的建议,他们通常通过会议方式进行沟通,虽然这可能带来冲突。为其他人所接受对这种决策风格来说是非常重要的。

3. All of us bring biases to the decisions we make. What would be the drawbacks of having biases? Could there be any advantages to having biases? Explain. What are the implications for decision making?

我们所有的人在制定决策时都会带有某种程度的偏见,带有偏见的情况会造成什么缺陷?有倾向性是否也有某些优点?试做说明。上述情况对管理决策意味着什么?

 

Drawbacks:

缺陷:

When decision makers tend to think they know more than they do or hold unrealistically positive views of themselves and their performance, they are exhibiting the overconfidence bias. The immediate gratification bias describes decision makers who tend to want immediate rewards and to avoid immediate costs. For these individuals, decision choices that provide quick payoffs are more appealing than those in the future. The anchoring effect describes when decision makers fixate on initial information as a starting point and then, once set, fail to adequately adjust for subsequent information. First impressions, ideas, prices, and estimates carry unwarranted weight relative to information received later. When decision makers selectively organize and interpret events based on their biased perceptions, they’re using the selective perception bias. This influences the information they pay attention to, the problems they identify, and the alternatives the develop. Decision makers who seek out information that reaffirms their past choices and discount information that contradicts past judgments exhibit the confirmation bias. These people tend to accept at face value information that challenges these views. The framing bias is when decision makers select and highlight certain aspects of a situation while excluding others. By drawing attention to specific aspects of a situation and highlighting them, while at the same time downplaying or omitting other aspects, they distort what they see and create incorrect reference points. The availability bias is when decisions makers tend to remember events that are the most recent and vivid in their memory. The result? It distorts their ability to recall events in an objective manner and results in distorted judgments and probability estimates. When decision makers assess the likelihood of an event based on how closely it resembles other events or sets of events, that’s the representation bias. Managers exhibiting this bias draw analogies and see identical situations where they don’t exist. The randomness bias is when decision makers try to create meaning out of random events. They do this because most decision makers have difficulty dealing with chance even though random events happen to everyone and there’s nothing that can be done to predict them. The sunk costs error is when decision makers forget that current choices can’t correct the past. They incorrectly fixate on past expenditures of time, money, or effort in assessing choices rather than on future consequences. Instead of ignoring sunk costs, they can’t forget them. Decision makers who are quick to take credit for their successes and to blame failure on outside factors are exhibiting the self-serving bias. Finally, the hindsight bias is the tendency for decision makers to falsely believe that they would have accurately predicted the outcome of an event once that outcome is actually known.

当决策者们倾向于想他们所知道的而不是他们能做到的或者保持他们自己不现实的积极的观点和做法,他们就会显示出过分自信的缺陷。急功近利的缺陷使得决策者倾向于想要得到马上的回报以及避免眼前的必要的花费。对这些人来说,能够为其提供很快的利益的决策的选择比有着长远利益决策的选择更重要。沉锚效应的缺陷使决策者固定在最开始的某点信息上面,一经确定,便很难充分地调整使适应后来出现的新信息。第一的印象、想法、价格和估计无缘无故地和以后获得的信息有密切的关系。当决策者陷入选择性知觉的时候,他们会选择性地根据他们错误的直觉去组织和阐明事件。这些都影响着他们所关注的信息和所开发的方案。有利证据的缺陷使得决策者找出了他们过去选择的和打了折扣的信息从而否认了过去的判断。这些人倾向于接受那些符合他们先入为主的观点的表面的信息而对于那些挑战他们固有观点的信息而对于那些挑战他们固有观点的信息则持批判和怀疑的态度。门框陷阱使决策者选择和强调某些情况下的特定的方面而排除其他的。通过对某些情况下特定方面的过分关注和强调,同时轻视和忽略其他方面,他们扭曲了他们所见的事情并且臆造了一些不正确的观点。记忆可靠性缺陷使得决策者倾向于只记得他们记忆中最新鲜最生动的东西。结果呢?它曲解了他们用一种积极的方法记忆起事情的能力,而且导致判断和可能性建立的失真。相似性表征的缺陷使得决策者总是根据类似的其他事物去评价某事物。随机陷阱使得决策者尝试着建立一些随机事件。他们这么做是因为大多数的决策者觉得在应对机遇方面有困难即使随机事件会发生在每个人的身上并且没有什么可以预测它们。沉没成本的缺陷使得决策者忘记了当前的选择不能纠正过去。他们在评价选择时错误地只关注过去的时间、金钱、努力的支出而不是未来的。他们不能忘记并忽视这些沉没成本。迅速满足于他们的成功并将失败归于外部因素的决策制定者显示出自我服务的偏见。最后,事后诸葛亮是指决策者相信他们一定掌握了某事的基本情况,他们就能精确的预算出这件事的结果的趋向。

 

Advantages:

优点:

Rules of thumbs can be useful to decisions makers because they help make sense of complex, uncertain, and ambiguous information.

   这些规律对于决策者来说非常有用,因为这些规律可以帮助他们更清晰地认识到那些复杂的、不确定的和模棱两可的信息。

 

The implications:

意味着:

a)        It can be useful to decisions makers because they help make sense of complex, uncertain, and ambiguous information.

b)        They may lead to errors and biases in processing and evaluating information.

c)        The managers should take measures to avoid the negative effects of these decision errors and biases: the main thing is being aware of them and then trying not to exhibit them. Beyond that, managers also should pay attention to “how” they make decisions and try to identify the heuristics they typically use and critically evaluate how appropriate those are. Finally, managers might want to ask those around them to help identify weakness in their decision-making style and try to improve on them. 

a)       它对于决策者来说非常有用,因为它可以帮助他们更清晰地认识到那些复杂的、不确定的和模棱两可的信息。

b)      它们可能导致决策者在整理和评价信息的时候出现错误。

c)  管理者应怎样避免决策偏见和错误的消极作用呢?最主要的一点是要意识到它们的存在并没法使它们不显露出来。除此之外还有,管理者应该关注他们“怎样”制定决策,鉴定他们通常使用的heuristics并评估它们的适当性。最后,管理者要询问他身边的人帮助识别他们在决策制定风格中的弱点并设法改进完善它们。

 

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