投资智慧(15)——管理风险
(2010-05-20 23:37:14)
标签:
杂谈 |
分类: 价值投资智慧 |
MANAGING RISK管理风险
It's not during up years that great investment track records are made.
Charles de Vaulx, 11.26.08
Long periods of prosperity tend to breed overconfidence on the part of investors, which leads to a misassessment of risk. During times of excesses, we concentrate on reducing risk by holding particularly strong companies.
Ed Wachenheim, 2.29.08
对于部分投资者来说,长期的顺利会滋养过度自信,这会导致错误地评价风险。在超过了正常状态的时期,我们集中于持有极为强的公司以减少风险。
One of the key ways we manage risk is by buying securities for which there are minimal expectations. If expectations are minimal or no one is paying attention, short-term volatility can be muted. This is really just another way of saying it’s prudent to buy securities with value characteristics.
Carlo Cannell, 6.30.08
我们管理风险的一个关键方式是买入最小期望值的股票。如果期望值很小,没有人关注,短期的波动就会减弱。这其实是以另一种方式说,这是谨慎地以价值特性来买入证券。
We think our way of investing lowers risk dramatically. If you invest only in quality businesses that generally aren’t exposed to external shocks – like union actions or a lot of cyclicality – that are growing 8-10% per year and earning 10% current returns, you don’t ever really dig yourself any big holes.
Jeffrey Ubben, 1.31.06
我们认为我们的投资方式显著地降低了风险。如果你仅仅投资于质量好的企业,通常你不会受到外部打击的影响——比如合并或者很多的周期性——它们每年会成长8-10%,取得10%的当期收益,你真的不需要自找麻烦。
We’ve found that the best way to deal with the fact that market sentiment can change so quickly is to try to own absurdly cheap things.
Stephen Roseman, 9.28.07
我们发现,对付市场情绪快速变化的最好方式是,试着持有一些难以想象的便宜货。
In periods of rapid change in liquidity and economic conditions, the odds that we’re
simply wrong about our estimates of companies’ near-term fundamentals are higher than average. As a result, we’re more focused today than ever on maintaining flexibility – through cash levels and buying power – and in sizing our bets according to the medium- to lower-confidence environment we’re in. We’re not necessarily making fewer bets, but they’re smaller in size.
Larry Robbins, 12.21.07
在流动性和经济形势快速变化的时期,我们对近期公司基本面的估计所犯错误的几率要高于平均水平。所以,我们今天比以往更集中于保持灵活性——通过现金水平和购买力——按照中庸的方式来调整赌注——并降低我们的自信程度。我们不需要减少赌注,但它们的规模很小。
Not to be flip, but all we count on in a number of our investments is just for things to return to normal. There’s a lot less risk in wanting that to happen than looking for some huge transformation in a company’s business.
Christopher Grisanti, 10.31.07
By focusing on stocks we know very well, with a high level of tangible downside protection, we’ve so far captured more than the market return in up markets and only 15% of the market’s loss in down markets. For value investors, that’s kind of what it’s all about.
Atticus Lowe, 4.30.07
我们集中持有我们熟悉的股票,保持较高水平的向下保护,至今,我们在上升市场中超过了市场的回报,在下跌的市场中,我们通常只有15%的损失。对于价值投资者来说,这就是所希望的全部。
We like it when expectations are very low and we
have a contrarian view on a broader issue impacting the company.
Low expectations help limit the downside and can result in prices
that leave you paying nothing for the upside if good things happen.
As Joel Greenblatt, who is one of my oldest friends, always says,
“If you don't lose
Jeffrey Schwarz, 5.30.08
当对它的期望值比较低时,我们比较喜欢,对于很多影响公司的问题,我们持有逆向观点。低的期望值会封死下跌空间,如果有什么好事发生会让你在上升趋势中白捡便宜。我的一个最老关系的朋友,Joel Greenblatt说过,“如果你不赔钱,剩下的所有选择都是好事。”
To some extent, balance sheet risk is a character issue for us. The CEO whose company has a great balance sheet probably isn’t going to make the big, dumb acquisition that will kill the company. He’s probably not the guy throwing $2 million birthday parties for his third wife at company expense. Other investors like the leverage that having debt gives you on the upside, but we generally try to look down before we look up – leverage doesn’t look so great from that perspective.
James Clarke, 10.31.06
在某种程度上,资产负债表风险对我们来说是个典型的问题。一个资产负债表良好的公司的CEO可能不会因进行大的、愚蠢的收购而毁掉这家公司。他可能不是那种用公司的钱为他第三个妻子投入200万美元举办生日宴会的人。
We do cap a given industry’s exposure at 25% of the portfolio, which is a check on the innate lack of humility we often have as investment managers. Owning five or six positions in an industry is a good, strong bet, but also isn’t betting the house on how smart we are relative to everyone else.
Jeffrey Bronchick, 1.31.08
We’ll have no more than 30% in any one sector, which is meant to insure that we won’t follow a very strong sector as it grows in importance in an index.
Kevin McCreesh, 10.31.07
我们在一个行业中的投资不会超过30%,这意味着当某一板块在指数中的重要性增长的时间,保证我们不会追踪。
Investing is often about knowing your strengths and we've learned that we're better at spotting profitable, unglamourous, under-valued companies than we are at identifying traditional turnarounds – by which I mean money-losing companies we expect to get back into the black. As a result, we set a guideline for ourselves that no more than 10% of the portfolio will be in companies with negative trailing 12-month earnings.
John Dorfman, 10.31.08
投资基本是关于了解你的优势,我们了解到我们在确定有利可图的、有魅力的、低估的公司方面,要比辨识传统的转折点上更有优势——by which I mean money-losing companies we expect to get back into the black。所以,我们为自己立了一条规矩,那些TTM利润为负的公司,在我们的组合中不能超过10%。
We don’t benchmark at all. I don’t care if we own almost no financials and I don’t care if we own an excess amount of energy. We’ll go where we think the value is and let the weightings fall where they may.
Steven Romick, 7.31.08
我们根本不和基准相比。
We spend 12 months building a position, are actively engaged with management over the next 12 months and if it all works out, we’re exiting after another 12 months. The activist approach to roll up our sleeves and work to improve shareholder value is the best risk management tool we have.
Christopher Kiper, 7.31.07
我们花了12个月建立了一个仓位,在接下来的12个月里进行活跃的管理,如果一切都按部就班,我们会在下一个12下月以后卖出。这种挽起袖子努力工作来改善股东价值的激进方法是我们拥有的最好的风险管理工具。
I’ll sacrifice some upside in bull markets to protect the downside in bear markets. That provides a valuable service to the average investor who can’t handle the level of volatility inherent in equity investing. It also allows me to spend less time talking to upset investors.
Steven Romick, 7.31.08
我会牺牲牛市中的一些上升段来保护熊市中的下跌段。这能在股权投资中为那些本能上不能控制波动的平均投资人提供有价值的服务。这也让我省下不少与慌乱的投资者对话的时间。
One of our strategies for maintaining rational thinking at all times is to attempt to avoid the extreme stresses that lead to poor decision-making. We have often described our techniques for accomplishing this: willingness to hold cash in the absence of compelling investment opportunity, a strong sell discipline, significant hedging activity, and avoidance of recourse leverage, among others.
Seth Klarman, 2.29.08
我们在所有时间下保持理性思考的战略之一是,尝试避免导致拙劣决策的极端压力。我们经常表达我们的技术来成就这件事:在没有引人注目的投资机会时愿意持有现金,坚定的卖出纪律,有意义的对冲,避免使用杠杆。