Here’s how we think about valuation: The S&P 500 companies（指的是指数还是个股）sell at 15x next year’s earnings, 3x book value, 11x cash flow, 1.5x revenues, have an ROE of 17- 18% and have anticipated trend earnings growth of 8%. We’re looking for companies with equal or superior growth characteristics that sell at discounts to the market valuation.

这是我们的估值标准：标准普尔500中的公司的价格是第二年盈利的15倍，净资产的3倍，现金流的11倍，收入的1.5倍，ROE达到17-18%，预期的利润增长趋势是8%。我们寻找具有适中或者较高的成长特性，而价格要比市场价格打了折扣。

Leon Cooperman, 11.30.06

 

We’re looking for a free-cash-flow “coupon” of 10% – EBITDA minus real capital spending minus incremental working capital, divided by enterprise value – combined with a growth profile of 10%. We look three years out at what we think the balance sheet looks like, what the cash flows look like and what type of multiple we should expect – out of that we want to see an annual 20% unlevered return.

我们寻找10%的自由现金流“优惠券”——EBITDA减去实际资本支出，再减去增量运营资本，再除以EV——再加上成长10%。我们观察三年，其资产负债表怎么样？其现金流怎么样？。。。另外，我们希望无杠杆的年度回报是20%。

Jeffrey Ubben, 1.31.06

 

If we're getting a 9-10% free-cash-flow yield in an industry that we don't see going away any time soon, and then can find other interesting lottery tickets providing us with upside, that generally starts to get our attention.

Jeffrey Schwarz, 5.30.08

 

We’re looking to pay 10x free cash flow or less, period. If you find those and you can’t figure out how to kill the business, you should be buying all day long. We’ve

always done very well when we can use sixth-grade math on the back of a postcard

to show how inexpensive something is relative to its free cash. Once we start getting more sophisticated – trying to prove something rather than see if we can disprove it by killing the business – we get into trouble.

我们寻找支付10倍或更少自由现金流的东西。如果你找到了有如此条件的股票，而你无法决定如何淘汰掉这家公司，你就应该一整天都拚命地买。当我们应用6年级的数学在明信片背后计算便宜货与它的自由现金有什么关系时，我们总是做得很出色。一旦我们开始复杂起来——试着证明什么而不是看是否我们能用‘淘汰这家公司’的方法反证它时——我们就会遇到麻烦。

Bruce Berkowitz, 4.28.06

 

I’d consider our style more as GULP, growth at unreasonably low prices. Why pay a reasonable price for anything? If you’re ever in Pennsylvania and see a license plate that says “10XFCF”, that’s me. That comes from Bill Miller speaking about how things trading at ten times free cash flow, if you understand the business, don’t go down much. Our clients over the years have made a lot of money off that advice.

我认为我们的风格更多的是：成长，并且具有不合理的低价。为什么决不付出合理的价格？如果你曾经到过Pennsylvania，而且看到一个牌照上书：10倍自由现金流，那就是我。这来源于比尔·米勒关于如何以10倍自由现金流交易的话，如果你了解这家公司，不要下降太多。这些年来，我们的客户靠这句话赚了很多很多的钱。

James Clarke, 10.31.06

 

We value companies based on our estimate of earnings per share, usually two or three years out. I don’t look six months to a year out because too many other people are doing that, and I don’t look four or five years out because there are too many uncertainties in looking out that far. Then it’s a question of putting a multiple on those projected earnings. Over the past forty years the stock market has sold, on average, at about 15x earnings, so I conclude that an average company is worth 15x earnings. Above average companies, of course, should be worth more than 15x.

我们估值公司依据我们对每股利润的估测，通常是2-3年左右。我不关心半年到一年的数据，因为有太多的人这样做，我也不会看到4-5年以外，因为看得如此远会有太多的不确定性。但是给测算好的利润一个倍数是一个问题。在过去40年中，股票市场的平均市盈率是15, 因此我总结一般的公司应该在15倍市盈率，而超出平均水平的公司当然应该价值高于15倍。

Ed Wachenheim, 2.29.08

 

In probably 90% of the cases we use 15x as our target multiple of normalized free cash flow. That has been the average for American stocks over the past 200 years and

it results in a roughly 6.5% free cash- flow yield, which is quite reasonable if risk-free interest rates are 4-5%.

大概90%的案例都采用15倍自由现金流。它是美国股市200年的平均水平，其自由现金流收益率约在6.5%，这是很合理的，如果无风险利息率是4-5%。

Francisco García Paramés,

11.26.08

 

I look at it this way: The average annual total return from equities over long periods of time has been around 10%. When you clean up the accounting, the real return on equity [ROE] of American business averages in the low teens. So our conclusion is that a stock’s return will approximate the company’s ROE over time, given a constant

valuation and absent distributions. So we choose to swim in the pool of companies where the returns are a whole lot better than average, in the 20% range.

我着眼于这个方面：长期的年度净资产总回报在10%左右。当你清算账目的时候，美国企业平均的ROE也在10%出头。所以我们的结论是，长期来讲，股票的回报会接近公司的ROE，一个恒定的估值。所以我们选择一直持股，而回报比平均值要好，在20%左右。

Charles Akre, 11.30.06

 

We’re looking for businesses whose shares are trading at a 40% or more discount from our assessment of their private market value. To avoid value traps, we focus on companies that have forward expected movement in that intrinsic value per share from positive growth dynamics. Finally, we’re looking to invest in management teams that treat shareholders as partners. As long as each of those elements remains in place, our preferred holding period is forever.

我们寻找在以我们评估的自由市场价值（台版《价值投资》中的变译法，指一个了解信息的实业家为了购买具备类似特征的资产所愿意付出的价值，为Klarman和Gabelli所采用）的40%或更低的价格交易的企业股票。为了避免价值陷阱，我们关注那些每股内在价值有积极成长动力的公司。最后，我们选择的管理团队要把股东当作伙伴。只要那些因素中的每一条都在，我们愿意首选的持有期是永远。

Clyde McGregor, 4.30.08

 

The metrics we use to determine value are pretty much what you’d expect. We do private-market-value analysis using discounted future cash flows and by looking at breakup values. At the same time we like stocks that are statistically cheap on a traditional price/earnings basis. We focus on companies trading at a 40% or greater discount to our private market value or no more than 13x our estimate of next year’s earnings. We have to have one or the other to buy.

我们确定价值的方法非常接近你希望的。我们用折现的未来现金流进行自由市场价值分析，我们考虑清算价值。同时，我们也喜欢那些在传统的PE基础统计很便宜的股票。我们集中于自由市场价值在40%或更低的公司，或者不超过下一年度利润预期13倍的公司。

John Rogers, 11.30.05

 

Once we understand the business and where we think it’s going, we’ll estimate the sustainable free cash flow the company can generate – net income, plus depreciation

and amortization, minus maintenance capital spending. Depending on the growth potential, defensibility and profitability of the business, we’ll put a 10- 14x multiple on that free cash flow to arrive at a target price. At a minimum, we want to expect to make at least 50% over the next two years.

一旦我们理解公司并且它的发展方向，我们就会估计这家公司能够产生的持续的自由现金流——净收益+折旧+分期还款-净投资（维护性资本化支出），依靠企业的成长潜力、可防御性和收益情况，我们会把目标价定为自由现金流的10-14倍。最少，我们希望在未来两年里收益能达到50%。

Robert Lietzow, 2.29.08

 

We define intrinsic value as what a knowledgeable investor or corporate competitor would pay, in cash, for 100% of the company. From the ground up we build that by making all the relevant adjustments to the income statement and balance sheet, then applying a multiple that reflects the quality of the business to the resulting normalized

earnings.

我们定义内在价值为，一个内行的投资人或者公司的竞争者100%购买此公司愿意付出的的现金。这是对利润表和资产负债表进行了相应的调整，然后用一个能体现公司质量净利润的倍数确定的。

Charles de Lardemelle, 11.26.08

 

Essentially, we forecast three years out what we believe a company is going to earn and then, based on its expected return on capital, its capital growth and prevailing interest rate levels, we arrive at the multiple at which we believe the shares should trade. Including any dividends, we want to see a minimum 25% annualized return potential over three years.

我们主要先根据预期的资本回报、资本成长和现行的利率来预测公司三年的收入，然后再用市盈率乘来算出应该用什么价格来买。包括红利，我们一般期望三年的算度潜在回报最少25%。

Randall Abramson, 12.21.07

 

We don’t have a problem with cyclicality. Wall Street still looks for certainty in areas

that are uncertain. We feel good about lumpiness. We just try to be cash counters – if you can buy something at 5x free cash flow with a limited chance of permanent impairment, even if it earns only half of what we originally thought, that’s okay.

华尔街还在不确定的地方寻找确定性。对这种愚蠢我们感受很好。我们只是努力计算现金——如果你能以5倍的现金流的价格买入，只承担有限的永久性损失的可能，那即使只赚到了你原来计划的一半，那也是不错的。

Bruce Berkowitz, 4.28.06

 

We’ll estimate what we think earnings can be four to five years out, apply the current multiple to those earnings, and then see what the price would be if discounted back to today using a 20% annual rate. If the price today implies a discount rate of more than 20% per year, we’re interested.

我们估测4、5年以后的利润，然后乘以目前的市盈率，用20%折现率折到现在的价格。如果现在的价格显示折现率超过每年20%，我们会感兴趣。

Murray Stahl, 11.21.07

 

We’re looking for a total annual return of at least 25%, with position sizes adjusted for the degree of difficulty. For a given expected internal rate of return, the lower the outcome’s expected volatility, the higher the position size. We create an estimated risk-adjusted IRR for everything and then allocate the portfolio based on that.

我们希望年度总回报至少25%， 用调整的仓位

Steven Tananbaum, 9.28.07

 

In absolute terms, we generally want to see 50% upside potential over the next couple of years. And unless we see at least 3x more potential upside than downside from the current price, we won’t buy it.

Philip Tasho, 9.28.07

 

We look back as far as possible to inform what would be the worst-case levels of revenues and margins, and then apply what we think are trough multiples to the resulting worst-case earnings. If the worst case is more than 20% below the existing share price we won't buy it, no matter how much the discount is to our intrinsic value.

Charles de Lardemelle, 11.26.08

 

We firmly believe no investment is so wonderful that it can’t be ruined by a too high

entry price, so on our discount-to cash- flow stocks we will not pay more than the market multiple on forward earnings. We want to avoid the temptation of making relative valuation bets – say, finding a software company attractive because it’s only 30x earnings when the group sells at 40x.

Christopher Grisanti, 10.31.07

 

Our primary metric is to look at how our estimate of annual growth in free cash earnings compares to the current multiple. Our portfolio today is indicative of what we look for: on average, we expect our companies to grow cash earnings by at least 15% per year, while the average multiple of the companies in the portfolio is around 15x.

Edward McAree, 8.31.08

 

I’m probably more willing to pay up for quality than other value investors might be. Some of my investor friends often tell me my ideas are “too high-quality” for them. I would distinguish somewhat here from paying up for growth – I’ll pay more for a high-quality, slow-growing business. I look for companies that will grow value, not necessarily revenue, at above-average rates. On average, our typical investment is 30-35% cheaper than we think it ought to be and we think it’s increasing value at 15-20% per year on top of that.

Ricky Sandler, 8.25.06

 

One of the big mistakes value investors can make is to be too enamored with absolute cheapness. If you focus on statistical cheapness, you’re often driven to businesses serving shrinking markets or that have developed structural disadvantages that make it more likely they’re going to lose market share.

价值投资者所犯的最大错误这一就是过于沉迷于廉价。如果你过于关注统计学上的廉价，你可能就会经常受到公司业务市场萎缩的影响，或者因其结构性弊端而使它更可能失去市场份额。

Bill Nygren, 7.28.06

 

Many value investors are primarily focused on price and valuation, which we obviously think are important, but we also believe that when constructing a portfolio you should have companies with promise beyond just going from undervalued to fairly valued.

许多价值投资者主要关注价格和估值，这些我们认为很重要，但是我们还认为当建立一个组合时，你应该了解公司的前景，而不仅仅因为它比合理的价格估值低而买入。

William Fries, 10.31.08

 

[A] good analyst is more adept at making judgments on growth. That’s their job – based on the business and the company’s position in it, how fast is the company going to grow? It’s pretty hard to lose if you’re right on the growth rates when the growth rates are high. In a 30x-earnings company growing 25% per year, you’ll be bailed out pretty quickly because in three years the earnings will double and the multiple on that

will then only be 15x.

好的分析师更容易对成长做出判断。这是他们的工作——基于行业及公司在行业中的地位，公司的成长会有多快？如果当成长率很高的时候，你刚好按这个成长率计算就很难赔钱。在一个年成长25%的30倍市盈率的公司，你会很快就会盈利，因为三年后，盈利会加倍，而届时的市盈率仅仅15。

Julian Robertson, 11.30.06

 

Borrowing from Warren Buffett, as we so often do, we see growth and value as all part of the same equation – to separate them strikes us as kind of dumb. There should be fairly broad agreement that what constitutes value is a company’s discounted future cash flows, so the growth in those cash flows is obviously central to figuring that out.

Ric Dillon, 6.29.07

 

We generally want to invest at a price where if our growth thesis is totally wrong, we can still expect to earn at least an 8% nominal cash-on-cash return. That’s roughly in line with what the overall market is likely to return, so we should match that even if none of the free options pay off. On average over the past 19 years we've paid less than the market multiple for the stocks we’ve bought, but the subsequent earnings-per-share growth on those stocks has been nearly double that of the S&P 500. We're trying to own things that look like value stocks when we buy them, but which turn out to be growth stocks.

我们通常想以这样一个价格投资，即，即使我们成长的命题完全错误，我们依然希望能至少得到8%的现金-现金回报。这大概地符合市场可能的回报，即使没有额外的回报，我们希望能达到这个标准。在过去的19年中，我们买入的股票都低于市场市盈率，但后来这些股票每股赢利的成长都近乎标准普尔的2倍。我们希望买入时是个价值股，但后来变成了成长股。

Boykin Curry, 3.31.08