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林伯强
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Two oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman last week. Global oil markets reacted with relative calm which saw oil prices dip for the day and then bounce back. 

Historically, geopolitical tensions impacted oil prices. What remains confusing is how this current geopolitical tension failed to cause oil prices to skyrocket. 

Since the US declared, in April, that it will not renew sanction exemptions for countries purchasing oil from Iran, crude oil prices stumbled. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures went from their peak at $66.60 per barrel on April 23 to $50.6 per barrel on June 5, taking a nearly 25 percent plunge. 

After extended oil production cuts in OPEC and Russia, the global crude oil market has achieved a relative balance. 

One possible reason that regional tensions did not cause oil prices to surge could be the pessimistic outlook on the economy in conjunction with the uncertainties caused
分类: 专栏文章
According to a recent blueprint report on China's oil and gas industry for year 2018-19, the nation's apparent oil consumption reached 648 million tons in 2018, up 6.95 percent compared with the previous year, while China's net imports of crude oil rose 10.9 percent year-on-year to 460 million tons. The report also said that China's dependency on imported crude oil was approaching 70 percent last year.

Needless to say, the dependency rate is quite high, but in my opinion, it may still be a conservative calculation. With different sets of statistical indicators, China's dependency on imported oil should have already exceeded the 70 percent mark. More importantly, the government should be aware that such high oil dependency is actually a very unsafe source of risk.

What's even more worrying is that Japan and the US are estimated to hold at least 140 days and 100 days, respectively, of oil stocks based on their net import volumes, while China's current strategic
分类: 专栏文章

今年以来,国际油价出现连续性的下跌。以布伦特原油期货价格为例,已从1月初最高的71.8美元/桶,跌至近期的低点54美元/桶,跌幅接近25%。能源价格不仅关乎全球经济,对中东等一些地区的地缘政治局势也有着重大影响。那么,在美国抛出“世纪协议”搅动中东地区的同时,油价的大幅下跌将会带来怎样的冲击?

近期国际油价的下跌可划分为两个阶段:最初主要是对前期油价上涨的回调。2019年下半年,欧佩克(OPEC)国家开始减少原油产量。特别在接近年底时,OPEC的原油日均产量从11月的2960万桶下降到12月的2494万桶。同时,美国今年年初暗杀伊朗将领苏莱曼尼,并引发伊朗方面的报复行动,又进一步推升了国际油价。但随后市场发现事态的发展与预期并不相符,各方都表现出一定的克制。因此,油价在1月8日以后开始出现回落。

第二阶段下跌主要是受到新型冠状病毒疫情的影响。为了抗击疫情,中国各地纷纷启动了疫情防控一级响应的机制,居民出行需求出现了大幅下降,同时春节假期也被延长,大量企业复工时间推迟。中国原油进口约占全球原油国际贸易量的16%。中国需求短时间的快速下降,对全球原油供需平衡产生了影响。同时,疫情

分类: 专栏文章

Powering up renewables

By Lin Boqiang | China Daily Global

Developing countries can learn from China's successful experience in promoting new energy

China has taken giant strides in renewable energy development and this has given it a shining business card. Starting from scratch, it has made great efforts to develop its new energy industry over the past 10 years, and it is now leading the wave of energy transformation, attracting worldwide attention.

China's new energy development is unparalleled. Consider this: In 2011, China's installed wind power capacity was 46 gigawatts and its installed photovoltaic capacity only 2 GW. The same year, Germany, the then world leader in renewable energy, had 29 GW of installed wind power capacity and 24 GW of installed PV capacity. By 2018, China's installed wind power capacity had increased to 221 GW and its installed PV capacity was about 176.1 GW, while Germany had about 59.3 GW installed wi

分类: 专栏文章

Waste not, want not

By Lin Boqiang | China Daily Global

Trash sorting is not an end in itself but rather a means to more effective waste recycling and treatment

A known but poorly understood concept - garbage classification - recently captured public attention in China as some cities have begun to strictly implement their sorting regimes for household waste. According to a plan issued by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, all 46 major cities in China should have their trash sorting systems in place by 2020; and all cities at or above the prefecture level should have done so by 2025.

The amount of garbage produced has been on a rapid rise. According to statistics, urban garbage clearance in China is 215 million metric tons per year, 56 percent of which goes into landfills, with only about 40 percent incinerated, recycled or reused.

Landfill uses up large amounts of land resources and poses potential risks t

分类: 专栏文章

More cleanly energized

By Lin Boqiang | China Daily Global

China needs to make more scientific plans for its low carbon, clean energy transition and choose optimal approaches in terms of balancing the costs and benefits

China's environmental problems such as high energy consumption, pollution and carbon emission are prominent. Carbon emissions generated by the use of fossil fuels are considered the main cause of global climate change. To cope with environmental pollution and carbon emissions, the Chinese government has promoted a low carbon and clean energy transition in recent years through subsidies and supporting policies to promote new technologies and products such as photovoltaics, wind power, nuclear power and electric vehicles.

From 2013 to 2017, China's photovoltaic power generation rose from 8.37 billion kilowatts per hour to 96.7 billion kWh. In the same period, its wind power generation increased by 109 percent and its

分类: 专栏文章

https://img2.chinadaily.com.cn/images/201912/06/5de9ba93a310cf3e97aa433e.jpeg

One of the most remarkable achievements of China's reform and openingup has been poverty alleviation. Statistics show that at the end of 1978, some 770 million Chinese people were living in poverty. But the number fell to 16.6 million in rural areas by the end of 2018. In other words, in the four decades since the reform and opening-up policy was introduced, more than 700 million people have been pulled out of poverty.

In particular, after the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2012, the Party and the government firmly resolved to alleviate poverty, and their dedicated efforts will ensure that all poor people in rural areas will be lifted out of poverty by 2020.

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分类: 专栏文章

In the past 40 years, China has made great strides in its development. China's economy has become the second-largest in the world, and people's living standards have been greatly improved. However, these achievements have been made at the cost of a large amount of energy input and serious pollution.

Of course, these negative effects are closely related to China's past development stage, and they have also happened in the history of major developed countries. But today, people's need for a better life is no longer material growth only, and the environment has become a major indicator of life quality. People want a blue sky and cleaner water in addition to continued productivity improvement. Therefore it is necessary to explore a clean, efficient and green development model that balances economic development with environmental protection.

China is already the world's largest energy consumer, yet its energy consumption per unit of GDP still lags far behind that of develop

The 25th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 25) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which officially concluded in Madrid on Dec 15, 2019, was obviously not as fruitful as people hoped.

Three important areas where consensus was lacking are: the parties' increased emissions reduction ambitions, the establishment of trading rules for international carbon markets and long-term climate finance support.

At the 21st UNFCCC held in 2015, nearly 200 parties unanimously adopted the Paris Agreement, which innovatively shifted from mandatory emissions reduction to encouraging each party to provide intended nationally determined contributions to reduce emissions. Four years later, almost all parties have submitted their intended nationally determined contributions, however most of them do not show enough ambition, making it hard to realize the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement. So one of the key issues for COP25 was to promote more

分类: 专栏文章

16日,美国马里兰大学全球可持续发展中心、国家发展改革委能源研究所和华北电力大学等单位共同发布《加快中国燃煤电厂退出:通过逐厂评估探索可行的退役路径》报告,详细阐述了在全球1.5摄氏度和2摄氏度升温目标的背景下,加快中国燃煤机组退役的可行性以及不同路径。报告认为,加快中国电力行业深度减排,推动传统燃煤电厂从能源系统中有序退出是可行的。

 

  《巴黎协定》提出,本世纪内要将全球升温控制在1.52摄氏度范围内,要想实现这一目标,现有的能源结构将面临重大调整。许多观点认为,

  

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