2024年，在混乱的中东地区，不可思议的事情发生了，在叙利亚政权令人震惊地崩溃后，地缘政治发生了重大转变。伊朗与最强大的外部军事力量黎巴嫩真主党失去了在该地区的立足点。

重大转变发生在2024年12月初、伊朗在该地区的重要盟友之一叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德迅速倒台之后。巴沙尔政权的迅速垮台给德黑兰带来了又一次沉重打击，德黑兰被迫与真主党一起撤出叙利亚，真主党失去了从伊朗经叙利亚到黎巴嫩的最重要补给线。

伊朗突然失去了在叙利亚和黎巴嫩的影响力和多年的投资。它没有了真正的代理人。

政治分析家萨姆·梅纳萨说，推翻巴沙尔是“完成加沙和黎巴嫩战争并将伊朗从该地区赶出去的一步。”

毫无疑问，中东的游戏规则已经改变，伊朗失去了在该地区的地位，一个新的叙利亚出现了。

迪拜近东和海湾军事分析研究所所长里亚德·卡瓦吉说，叙利亚是伊朗的门户，“这座桥已经塌了”，给该地区带来了重大变化。

他说：“我们正在形成一个全新的中东，伊朗的影响力几乎已经丧失，伊朗自己现在也面临严重威胁。”

贝鲁特美国大学政治学教授希拉勒·哈尚说，在阿以冲突中扮演重要而有影响力角色的伊朗“已经出局了”。

哈尚说：“我们有了新的力量，新的政治方式控制着该地区的发展。”他认为土耳其的作用将会更大，没有土耳其，叙反对派就不可能夺取大马士革并推翻巴沙尔。

他说，叙利亚发生的事情将影响其他国家，影响该地区的事态发展，“谁控制了叙利亚，谁就能控制中东”。

因此，叙利亚的新领导人需要成功地稳定这个国家，有效地管理它，并引领它走向新的未来。

然而，哈尚表示担心该地区的国家不希望叙利亚新政权取得成功，成为“其他国家效仿的榜样……因为它们害怕改变”。

而自认为已经从多线战争中“获胜”的以色列，仍有许多挑战要面对。

加沙战争还没有结束，人质仍被关押；与真主党的冲突可能还没有停止；胡塞组织仍在向其内陆发射导弹；伊朗支持的伊拉克什叶派武装仍然活跃；伊朗可能会成为一个核国家。

By Dalal Saoud

   

BEIRUT, Lebanon, Dec. 31 (UPI) -- The unthinkable in the troubled Middle East happened in 2024, with a major geopolitical shift after the stunning collapse of the Syrian regime at the hands of Islamist rebels. And Iran lost its foothold in the region, as did its most powerful military arm, Lebanon's Hezbollah.

It was also a year of human tragedies in Gaza amid Israel's continued military offensive that killed nearly 45,000 people, including 17,000 children, and displaced 1.9 million, while 11,000 are thought to be buried under the rubble.

The besieged Gaza strip was largely destroyed, but Hamas is still fighting, and the 14-month war remains unresolved.

Israel, which suffered a severe blow on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas staged its daring "Operation Al Aqsa Flood" that killed 1,200 Israelis, responded with extreme force and justified its military actions by citing "existentialist threats."

Turning to Hezbollah, which joined the fight in support of Gaza, Israel decided to eliminate its leaders and dismantle its military infrastructure. The Iran-funded militant group lost most of its top officials and military commanders, including its long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah, while its headquarters, bases, arms depots, tunnels and financial arm were destroyed.

With Hezbollah extremely weakened by Israel's intensified attacks, Iran suffered its first strategic setback.

"Iran and its proxies turned from being a simple security threat for Israel and security menace in the region to an existentialist threat to Israel and a global threat to the major powers," Riad Kahwaji, who heads the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai, told UPI.

Iran, Kahwaji said, once was seen by the West as a "possible useful ally" against extremist Muslim Sunni groups, such as al Qaeda and ISIS, and its actions were tolerated.

That changed after the Hamas attack when its armed proxies -- Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen and the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq -- began to hit deep inside Israel in support of Gaza.

Iran crossed the "red line" when it attacked Israel in April and again in October to avenge the killing by Israel of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, Ismael Haniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah, and a senior Iranian commander. It also wanted to retaliate for an Israeli air strike on an Iranian consulate complex in Damascus.

"We saw Israelis treat this existential threat more forcibly with unlimited support from the U.S. and Europe that enabled them to destroy Gaza, eliminate Hamas leadership and downgrade it substantially," Kahwaji said.

Hezbollah faced the same fate and had to stop supporting Gaza by accepting a cease-fire agreement to end its bloody conflict with Israel.

But the major shift came with the quick fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad, another key regional ally of Tehran, in early December.

The quick collapse of Assad's regime dealt another severe blow to Tehran, which was forced to withdraw from Syria along with Hezbollah, which lost its most important supply route from Iran through Syria.

Iran suddenly lost its influence and long years of investment in Syria and Lebanon. It was left with no real proxy.

According to Sam Menassa, a political analyst and former executive director of the La Maison du Futur research institute, Iran has become "a source of threat" to U.S. security and interests.

Menassa said the overthrow of Assad was "a completion to the wars in Gaza and Lebanon ... and to uprooting Iran from the region, at least from the Levant."

"They all came as part of a clear U.S.-Western strategy. Iran, as it is now, is no more accepted," he told UPI. "If its nuclear program is attacked before it becomes a nuclear country, it will become a normal country or like North Korea. ... You reap what you sow."

No doubt, the rules of the game in the Middle East have changed, with Iran losing its status in the region and a new Syria emerging.

Kahwaji said that Syria was the gateway for Iran and "this bridge has collapsed," bringing about a major shift in the region.

"We have a whole new Middle East coming into shape where Iran's capability has nearly diminished and Iran itself now is facing a serious threat," he said.

Iran, which imposed itself as an important and influential player in the Arab-Israeli conflict, "has exited the equation," according to Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut.

"We have new forces, new political formula governing developments in the region." Khashan told UPI, arguing that the role of Turkey, without which it would have impossible to capture Damascus and overthrow Assad, will be stronger.

He said what happens in Syria will influence other countries, shape events in the region and "whoever controls Syria can control the Middle East."

Syria's new leaders would thus need to succeed in stabilizing the country, running it effectively and moving it toward a new horizon.

"It would then become a success story and a source of inspiration to other Arabs who will try to follow and contribute to a fundamental change in the region itself," Khashan said, dismissing the possibility of establishing an Islamic rule in Syria.

"Syria is an ethnically and religiously fragmented country. It will be stupid to create an Islamic order like in Afghanistan. ... It doesn't work," he said.

However, he expressed fears that the countries in the region would not want the new regime in Syria to succeed and become "a role model for others to emulate ... as they are afraid of change."

The new Syria also could be an inspiration for the Iranian people, who started to realize how weak their government is becoming and how taking actions domestically could transform the regime in Tehran, Khashan said.

"I think eventually Iran will transform itself. ... Now, the U.S. wants Iran to change from within and not the change to come from abroad," he said.

Israel, which considers itself to have emerged "victorious" from its multi-front war, still has many challenges to face.

The Gaza war is not over and its hostages remain captive; the conflict with Hezbollah may not have ended; the Houthis still are launching missiles deep into their territories; Iran-backed Shiite militias in Iraq are still active; and Iran might become a nuclear country.

Little time is left for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to act against Iran before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who pledged to end the raging wars in the region and promised peace and prosperity, returns to the White House on Jan 20.