冯德莱恩此次令人震惊地宣布对中国展开反补贴调查，这一操作展现出的唯一要点是：欧洲部分汽车产业和政府部门担心自己在电动汽车领域被击败。

过去一年里，欧洲已经意识到一个事实：中国现在有能力建造技术先进的电动车型。而欧洲则在电动汽车领域拖拖拉拉。

尽管冯德莱恩13日声称中国电动汽车在全球市场的表现与国家“巨额补贴”有关，但文章提醒称：只需看看曾经无往不胜的汽车制造商（比如大众汽车）在中国市场份额不断缩水就会明白，西方品牌如今在软件和电子产品领域的竞争力下降了。

近几个月，中国汽车出口量大幅增长，这其中也包括特斯拉、雷诺旗下达契亚等西方汽车制造商在中国建厂制造的汽车，西方品牌希望从较低的生产成本中获益，然后再将这些汽车运往欧洲。

施密特汽车研究公司的数据显示，比亚迪等中国品牌在欧洲汽车总销量中所占比例不到3%，这是一个良好的开端，但中国制造商仍有大量工作要做，以提高消费者对品牌的认知，并在欧洲建立经销商网络和服务中心。

长期来看中国电动汽车潜力巨大，但目前在欧洲的销量仍然相当温和，这种情况下欧盟就对中国出手，可能招致反击。

人们普遍以为，与宝马、奔驰等德国高端汽车制造商相比，中国汽车在欧洲的销售对法国雷诺等平价汽车制造商构成的“威胁”更大，但实际上雷诺目前并未受到太大影响。法国的雷诺和标致目前利润都不错，一定程度上是因为这些欧洲企业奉行“价值高于销量”的战略。

欧洲车企调价的结果就是，欧洲消费者因缺乏低价选择而遭受损失，欧洲新车市场也出现萎缩。当中国汽车制造商准备填补这一缺口时，欧盟又大喊“犯规”，这很奇怪。

“我们没有理由不允许那些为欧洲消费者提供好东西的人进入市场，他们提供消费者想要的东西。”雷诺汽车首席执行官卢卡·德梅奥本月早些时候在慕尼黑车展上告诉记者。

冯德莱恩宣称“全球市场充斥着便宜的中国电动汽车”的说法更加站不住脚。至少到目前为止，中国汽车制造商普遍避免在欧洲以非常低的价格销售电动汽车。

此外，中国企业落地欧洲还促进了当地就业，中国电池企业当代安培已经开始在欧洲进行生产，“如果政客们不碍事的话，肯定会有更多企业跟进，从而创造出众多技术岗位”。

众所周知，冯德莱恩此次表态是在法国的大力游说之后进行的，法国政府看雷诺和标致在中国销售和制造业务规模不大，自以为有能力发表强硬言论，但如果中国政府对法国采取反击措施，根本不缺少目标，比如非常依赖中国市场的法国奢侈品企业。

鉴于美国目前在大力补贴其制造业，欧洲可能得考虑对本土汽车业进一步提供有针对性的支持，作者克里斯·布赖恩特担心：欧美打起的“补贴战”里，唯一的赢家是那些擅长在政府间挑拨离间的公司。

欧洲与其浪费时间调查中国的“补贴”，不如把重点放在提高竞争力和技术能力上。欧洲应该把中国企业的竞争视为提高自身电动汽车水平的催化剂，而不是（感觉到威胁就拉起不允许人们进入的）吊桥。

Analysis by Chris Bryant

If there’s one takeaway from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s shock announcement of a probe into Chinese domestic car subsidies, it’s that parts of Europe’s car industry and body politic are now terrified of being outcompeted in electric vehicles.

Over the long term, such worries are not unfounded — some of the latest crop of Chinese EVs now making their way to Europe’s shores are genuinely impressive — but poking China while its car sales in Europe are still quite modest risks provoking retaliation. Rather than seeking political favors, European auto manufacturers should focus on improving their own competitiveness and developing EVs that consumers can actually afford.

Over the past 12 months, Europe has woken up to the fact that China is now capable of building technologically sophisticated electric models. It’s the result of years of intense Chinese investment in batteries and associated supply chains, while Europe — the birthplace of autos —  dragged its heels on EVs.

True, Chinese manufacturers have benefited from subsidies, and import tariffs are also tilted in their favor (car imports into China face a 15% tariff compared with 10% when going into the European Union). But you only need to look at the shrinking Chinese market share of once all-conquering automakers such as Volkswagen AG to appreciate that Western brands are now being outcompeted in software and electronics, not just government largesse.

Chinese car exports have surged in recent months, but this partly reflects how Western carmakers like Tesla Inc. and Renault SA’s budget Dacia brand are building cars there to benefit from lower production costs before shipping them to Europe. 

Chinese brands such as BYD Co Ltd. account for less than 3% of overall European car sales, according to Schmidt Automotive Research. This is a good start, but Chinese manufacturers still have a lot of work to do to boost consumer awareness of their brands and establish dealer networks and service centers in Europe.

Chinese car imports are generally considered to pose more of a threat to mass-market carmakers such as Renault than to German premium automakers such as BMW AG and Mercedes-Benz Group AG. I don’t disagree, yet Renault isn’t suffering much right now. The French company posted a record 7.6% operating margin in the first half of 2023. Peugeot, owned by Stellantis NV, has also been making heaps of money.

Those profits are partly a result of pursuing a value-over-volume strategy — a posh way of saying European carmakers have lately focused on selling fewer cars at higher prices. This has worked wonders for their financial results, but the upshot is European consumers have suffered from a dearth of low-priced options, and the European new-car market has shrunk. It seems strange to cry foul when Chinese automakers are poised to fill that gap.

You needn’t take my word for it. “There’s no reason why we shouldn’t allow people who do good stuff for the European consumer to enter the market, to offer people what they want,” Renault boss Luca de Meo told journalists at the Munich motor show earlier this month.

It’s even odder for von der Leyen to claim the world is being flooded with cheap Chinese cars when, so far at least, Chinese carmakers have generally shied away from selling EVs at very low price points in Europe — perhaps fearing the kind of retaliation she signaled today. And rather than just exporting to Europe, Chinese companies like battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. have begun establishing local production in Europe. More are sure to follow — creating hundreds of skilled jobs — providing politicians don’t get in the way.

It’s no secret that von der Leyen’s aggressive intervention came after heavy lobbying from the French. Renault and Peugeot lack a significant sales or manufacturing footprint in China, so Paris thinks it can afford to talk tough, whereas German carmakers earn billions of euros from their factories there. But if Beijing ever wishes to retaliate against Paris, it won’t lack possible targets — French luxury goods companies are very reliant on China, for example.

Given the US is now engaging in a manufacturing subsidy splurge of its own, Europe may have to consider further targeted support for its autos industry. But I remain concerned that the only winners here are companies skilled in the art of playing governments off against one another.

Rather than waste time investigating Chinese subsidies, Europe should instead focus on improving its competitiveness and technological capability. Chinese rivalry should be a catalyst for Europe to raise its EV game rather than a drawbridge.