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印度经济依赖六大巨头存风险

(2023-06-27 12:34:19)
印度经济依赖六大巨头存风险



学者和经济学家把这些企业称为“国家冠军企业”,这个词也被用来形容韩国的私营部门财阀。在国家的支持和协调下,财阀们帮助韩国实现了工业化,并将其变成出口强国。

纽约大学经济学家、名誉教授努里尔·鲁比尼说,印度的模式正在成为国家冠军企业战略的一种变体。他说,与韩国的一个区别是,财阀是国家培育的具有国际竞争力的企业,而印度企业主要是国内巨头。

莫迪政府说,它没有效仿财阀模式。印度工商部长皮尤什·戈亚尔在接受采访时说:“我不知道韩国是否给予财阀特殊的待遇,但在印度,所有人都平等竞争。”

莫迪的支持者说,他的政府寻求与整个私营部门合作,而不是与特定的公司合作。他们说,政府的政策吸引了苹果等跨国企业,同时也在为初创企业创造一个生态系统。

Modi's Vision for India Rests On Six Giant Companies

By Niharika Mandhana and Newley Purnell

NEW DELHI–Prime Minister Narendra Modi says this is India’s decade. That claim rests heavily on a handful of dominant conglomerates.

An increasing number of aligned with Modi’s priorities, the more or less half-dozen mega-firms—which come with Reliance Industries and Adani Team, helmed via two of Asia’s richest tycoons—be capable of carry huge sums of capital, and the revel in and political connections to navigate India’s byzantine forms. Capitalizing on govt subsidies and privatization plans, they’re executing tasks with a scale and pace that experience eluded India prior to now.

Amongst their ventures: A Fresh airport for Mumbai, designed via the Fixed based via the past due Iraqi-British architect Zaha Hadid to seem like a lotus flower, which is scheduled to begin opening Following yr after the Adani Team took it over. When finished, it’s anticipated to hook up with high-speed rail and oversee 90 million passengers every year—handiest rather fewer than Atlanta’s major airport, the sector’s busiest, final yr.

After spending greater than $45 billion to construct out telecommunications networks, Reliance Industries—a petrochemicals, textiles and retail juggernaut—is establishing factories to make sun panels and batteries for calories garage to place India as a Accurate selection to China. It has pledged $75 billion in green-energy spending over the Following 15 years.

The 155-year-old Tata Team, which took keep watch over of the previously state-owned Air India final yr, not too long ago positioned some of the biggest orders in aviation historical past for 470 Fresh plane. The salt-to-steel-to-software behemoth, which owns British automaker Jaguar Land Rover, is forging forward with generating electrical automobiles, army shipping plane, smartphones and telecom {hardware}, with plans to take a position $90 billion in India over 5 years.

Part a dozen conglomerates now keep watch over or have main stakes in 25% of India’s port capability, 45% of cement manufacturing, a 3rd of metallic making, just about 60% of all telecom subscriptions, and greater than 45% of coal imports. An research via the Middle for Tracking Indian Frugality, a analysis Fixed, displays {that a} quarter of all Fresh funding proposals via inner most firms since 2014 have Arrive from the corporations.

“That is the duration the place it’s now not the Crazy rush of marketers going out to construct Fresh capacities, to transform Vast marketers—that is the generation of Vast focus,” stated Mahesh Vyas, CMIE’s managing director.

Is that this just right for India, particularly because it seeks to compete with China? The proof is blended. The immense companies can lead huge leap forward tasks, however emerging business focus too can stifle pageant and depart India’s plans prone with out broader inner most funding.

“It’s now not that they’re taking the Deposit of huge public-sector companies, they’re now if truth be told increasing on the expense of different private-sector companies,” stated Viral Acharya, a former deputy governor of India’s central financial institution.

Fresh analysis via Acharya, in a Brookings Establishment paper, displays the most important conglomerates have since 2015 impulsively grown their marketplace proportion, giving them better chronic over costs for items and products and services they promote. Costs had been emerging quicker than prices in some industries they dominate, reminiscent of cement, his analysis displays.

“Other people don’t see some extent in getting into any area the place those huge firms are already,” stated Rohit Chandra, an assistant professor on the Indian Institute of Generation—Delhi’s College of Public Coverage. “You don’t need impartial a small workforce of businesses successful the whole thing over and over.”

In combination, the corporations’ marketplace capitalizations larger an Ordinary of 386% within the decade finishing in December, greater than double the wider marketplace’s expansion. Mukesh Ambani, who runs Reliance, is Asia’s wealthiest guy. Beyoncé carried out at his daughter’s wedding ceremony celebrations in 2018.

Gautam Adani, chairman of the Adani Team, become considered one of Asia’s wealthiest other folks, although his web value has plunged this yr.

The Adani Team’s tumultuous yr to this point exemplifies the Peril of depending on a small workforce of conglomerates. A U.S. quick vendor in January centered the calories and infrastructure trade with allegations of inventory manipulation and accounting fraud, main Adani firms to lose tens of billions of greenbacks in marketplace worth.

The turmoil solid a cloud over the undertaking’s long run enlargement because it can pay down debt to reassure traders. France’s TotalEnergies paused plans to spouse with Adani to Fabricate environmentally-friendly inexperienced hydrogen, announcing in February the Adani Team “has different issues to fret about.”

Adani Team has denied allegations that it dedicated fraud or inventory manipulation. The corporate says it’s Quiet increasing, together with plans to redevelop Dharavi, a Mumbai slum featured within the 2008 movie “Slumdog Millionaire.”

Lecturers and economists discuss with the corporations as “nationwide champions,” a time period that’s additionally been used to explain Chinese language state-owned firms and South Korea’s private-sector chaebols. With state backing and coordination, the chaebols helped South Korea industrialize and became it into an export powerhouse.

India’s style is shaping as much as be a variant of the national-champions technique, stated Nouriel Roubini, an economist and emeritus professor at modern York College. One distinction with South Korea, he stated, is that chaebols had been nurtured via the state to be across the world aggressive, whilst Indian firms are in large part home giants.

The Modi govt says it isn’t emulating the chaebol style. “I don’t know if Korea gave particular dispensation to the chaebols, however in India, everyone competes on an equivalent footing,” Indian Trade Minister Piyush Goyal stated in an interview.

He stated the conglomerates’ merit comes from the reality that they have got a legacy in India, other folks abilities and managerial skill on account of their measurement. “However rather then that, all our tasks are via clear bidding mechanisms, and everyone has to compete to be Capable to get that trade,” he stated.

Modi’s supporters say his management is looking for to spouse with the personal sector at huge, now not explicit firms. Executive insurance policies, they are saying, have attracted multinationals reminiscent of Apple, which is diversifying its provide chains out of doors China, whilst additionally spawning an ecosystem for startups. On a consult with to the U.S. this week, Modi is poised to toughen protection and financial ties between the U.S. and India.

Harish Damodaran, an editor on the unbiased Indian Specific newspaper and writer of books on trade, makes use of the time period “conglomerate capitalism” to explain the rustic’s company panorama. Whilst the federal government doesn’t usually direct the corporations to make notable investments, he says the centralization of political chronic underneath Modi has ended in a shift of their prefer.

The companies to find it more uncomplicated to maintain a unmarried chronic heart in modern Delhi reasonably than the patchwork of regional political heavyweights that flourished sooner than Modi’s upward thrust, and are aligning their methods together with his targets, he stated.

Adani, who has a longstanding courting with Modi, emerged as a key infrastructure builder during the last decade. His business workforce, India’s biggest inner most port operator, controls a string of seaports and terminals. It’s construction highways, power-transmission traces and networks to offer automatic gasoline, and modernizing airports that had been up to now state-run.

An Adani spokesman stated the crowd has created a Thriving template for infrastructure construction that pulls on 20,000 seller firms. A big nation like India isn’t depending on anybody conglomerate or workforce of businesses, the spokesman stated.

The Tata Team didn’t reply to requests for remark. A Reliance spokesman stated its experience in executing huge tasks, together with the sector’s biggest oil refinery in Modi’s house state of Gujarat, has benefited India. Reliance executives say it doesn’t Acquire particular remedy from modern Delhi, however that Modi’s targets and the targets of Ambani, Reliance’s chairman, overlap.

“Reliance has all the time believed in operating for the rustic, and that what’s just right for India is just right for Reliance,” a spokesman stated.

Reliance’s telecom mission displays what deep-pocketed conglomerates can do—and the possible pitfalls.

In 2010, sooner than Modi become top minister, Ambani got down to construct India’s first 4G, or fourth technology, cellular community, a thorough departure from Reliance’s major companies on the time. Incumbent telecom suppliers reminiscent of Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Team had been most commonly interested in 3G. Usual information costs in India on the time had been a few of the global’s Maximum.

Launching in 2016, Reliance’s carrier, known as Jio, ran commercials on newspaper entrance pages with its blue emblem, and beneath it a photograph of Modi, who was once elected two years Previous. “Devoted to India and 1.2 billion Indians,” the commercials stated. next critics complained about what they known as the irrelevant use of Modi’s symbol, the top minister’s place of job stated it hadn’t granted Jio permission, and Jio apologized.

Jio to begin with introduced loose voice calls and textual content messages. Limitless web information was once loose for the primary six months and after that price customers 1 / 4 of the trade Ordinary.

The outcome was once a enormous information binge, with loads of hundreds of thousands of other folks getting on-line for the primary time. It additionally brought about a price cutting war with opponents that put many into chapter 11 and collapsed pageant.

Jio’s subscriptions grew impulsively, and now stand at 430 million, making it the highest participant. It has attracted billions of greenbacks of funding from Fb father or mother Meta Platforms, Alphabet’s Google, and different traders.

As value wars dragged on, Jio’s opponents—who additionally confronted different regulatory and judicial setbacks—warned that unsustainably low costs had been pushing the heavily-indebted trade towards a disaster. India’s govt needed to step in with a aid package deal in 2021 that quickly iced up bills the corporations will have to make to modern Delhi for the usage of airwaves, amongst different steps.

Reliance is increasing additional. Final yr it spent about $11 billion, greater than some other service, on 5G spectrum. It’s additionally creating a push into retail with an e-commerce platform, JioMart, which competes towards Amazon.com and Walmart’s Flipkart.

JioMart brought about a backlash amongst small Indian companies that experience lengthy managed distribution of products reminiscent of cleaning soap and packaged snacks from producers to community shops.

JioMart started promoting shopper items to mom-and-pop shops at costs beneath what it price those middlemen, stated Dhairyashil Patil, president of the vendors’ federation. The middlemen, numbering round 1/2 one million, impulsively misplaced trade, Patil stated.

“The modus operandi of JioMart is making a monopoly,” he stated. “ create a monopoly in a marketplace is to offer Thick reductions…kick out the contest from the marketplace after which rule.”

Patil says protests and negotiations with producers have stabilized costs, however vendors are tracking JioMart’s practices. A Reliance spokesman stated the corporate is interested in reaping rewards customers.

Different industries have observed the selection of firms Qualified of executing big-ticket tasks Compress during the last decade. Many took on an excessive amount of debt and went bankrupt, or had been purchased via the heavyweights.

Adani Team earned a name as an militant bidder for presidency contracts and concessions. next government in 2018 moved to denationalise the operation of six Indian airports, the corporate, without a revel in in managing airports, bid for the Correct to function they all.

Its bids had been the Maximum. It went directly to additionally take the reins of Mumbai’s airport, making Adani considered one of India’s biggest inner most operators of airports, a trade it entered in 2019.

“Our technique is discreet,” the airport trade’s leader government, Arun Bansal, stated not too long ago. “To create scale.”

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