眼看着洪流将至，国际社会早前齐心协力建造的防灾堤坝，却被美国挖了一个口子，还不让其他人将它堵上。这就是当前国际贸易面对的一个危险现状。WTO、世界银行、国际货币基金组织等多家国际机构领导人都对明年的全球经济衰退表示担忧，这种情况下如果再爆发全球贸易战，又岂止是雪上加霜。WTO发布报告称，2023年全球贸易增长预计将大幅放缓，明年全球商品贸易量将仅增长1.0%，远低于此前估计的3.4%。形势显然是十分严峻的。世界贸易大国必须行动起来，阻止全球贸易战的爆发。如果美国在这样的全球危机时刻继续火上浇油的话，那么就是在从事损害人类共同利益的犯罪行为。

某种程度上，美国已经成为国际贸易体系的那头灰犀牛，它冲撞造成的破坏，可能导致国际贸易体系的崩溃，势必引发严重的全球性后果，加剧全球范围内的社会动荡和政治愤怒。这些账最后都得算到美国头上。希望美国心里清楚，自己从盒子里放出的是什么东西。

WTO最近连续做出不利于美国的裁决，对美国打击不小，有可能强化了美国的逆反抵触心理。以美国的性格，它一般不会在自身找问题，更可能觉得问题果然都出在WTO的机制上。我们同时也能明显感觉到，对美国在国际贸易领域表现出来的自私蛮横，已经有越来越多的国家明确表示反对。“多边贸易体制的破坏者”“单边主义霸凌行径实施者”“产业政策双重标准操纵者”“全球产业链供应链扰乱者”，中国常驻WTO代表李成钢大使对美国的这4个定性很贴切。在国际贸易问题上，美国逐渐陷入“众叛亲离”的光景。

有观点说，如果美国一意孤行，咱们其实也拿它没办法。话不能这么说，事实也不是这样。比如像这次127个成员的联合提案，虽然美国再次拒绝，但它每拒绝一次，因此付出的信誉成本和面临的道德压力都会呈指数级增加，最终将到达其承受力的临界点。孤独地站在国际公义的对立面，那里很冷，就算美国皮再厚，也会不胜其寒。

More than 100 countries stress ‘the urgency and importance’ of filling appeal judge positions as US continues years-long disruption started by Trump

Daniel Hurst 

Australia has teamed up with China and more than 100 countries to protest longstanding blockages at the World Trade Organization as the United States vetoes appeal judge appointments.

Australia and China remain at odds over specific trade disputes between them – such as Beijing’s tariffs on Australian wine and barley – but are united in concern about the years-long disruption to a key appeal body.

Australia is pushing for a “fully and well-functioning dispute settlement system” so alleged breaches of trade rules can be “effectively addressed by all members, regardless of their size or influence”.

“Australia is concerned about the real costs, both commercial and systemic, that arise from the current appellate body impasse,” a Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade spokesperson said.

The WTO continues to set up panels to hear initial disputes between countries about unfair tariffs and subsidies – including those that are currently considering the barley and wine cases.

But the impasse disrupts later attempts to appeal against those panel decisions to a higher umpire.

The crisis stems from the then-Trump administration’s decision to block appointments of judges to the top WTO appeal body – which the US claimed was overstepping its role and encroaching on US sovereignty.

The failure to replace retiring judges caused the top appeal body to grind to a halt in 2019. The Biden administration has not resumed appointments, saying the US concerns about the dispute system “remain unaddressed”.

Australia and China were among a large number of co-sponsors of a proposal put to a meeting of the Dispute Settlement Body in Geneva on Tuesday.

They stressed “the urgency and importance” of filling seven vacancies on the appeal body. They are empty due to a combination of retirements and resignations over the past few years.

The proposal called for selection processes to be launched so the umpire could again function properly.

Mexico’s representative, speaking on behalf of 127 members including Australia and China, said the group was concerned the current situation was “seriously affecting the overall WTO dispute settlement system against the best interest of members”.

It was the 61st time the group had pushed its proposal to start the selection process.

The US opposed the proposal from the 127 members and instead called for “fundamental” reform, according to an official summary of the meeting.

The US representative told Tuesday’s meeting the country was still seeking “an improved and reformed dispute settlement system” and would engage further with other members on the topic.

That prompted Mexico, on behalf of the 127 members, to complain that the US had provided “no legal justification for the current blocking of the selection processes, which is causing concrete nullification and impairment of rights for many members”.

Dfat said Australia regularly made interventions at the WTO on the matter and broader talks were continuing.

“Australia is cooperating with the WTO membership on dispute settlement reform, including the US and China, and welcomes all members’ active participation in discussions in Geneva to address this important issue,” the spokesperson said.

A temporary workaround was set up in 2020 by a small number of WTO members, including Australia, China, the EU and Mexico, but this arbitration system is only available to those who join it. So far it has just 25 members.

In Beijing this week, Australia’s foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, and her Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, nominated trade and economic issues as one of the areas for renewed dialogue between the two countries.

Australia’s key trade priority is to urge China to drop tariffs and unofficial trade bans on a range of commodities, which were rolled out in 2020 at the height of the diplomatic rupture.

The next most likely step in the “stabilisation” of the relationship would be a meeting between the trade minister, Don Farrell, and his Chinese counterpart. Farrell has said he is available to meet at any time or place to try to find a resolution.

The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, told reporters on Friday his government was “engaging constructively” with Australia’s largest trading partner.

China’s two-year freeze on high-level talks – which extended from early 2020 to June 2022 – was “obviously problematic” for the relationship, Albanese said.

WTO panels are expected to issue their final reports on the wine and barley disputes in the first half of 2023.