美帝那里是什么谦卑,出阴招而已
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杂谈 |
War in Ukraine: America is
learning the art of humility
By Katty Kay
America is learning the art of humility. That's a good thing
for the rest of the world.
The country that began this century by invading not one but
two countries, has become more modest in the face of the nightmare
that is Ukraine. Forget shock and awe, this is the era of caution
and apprehension. That's what having no good options will do for
you.
Friday's two-hour phone call with China's President Xi,
superpower to superpower, was a sign of how hard it will be for
America to stop this war. The US's leverage over China is limited,
and readouts from both sides suggest the call didn't achieve much.
But it was part of an orchestrated diplomatic strategy that
contrasts with much of the first year of Joe Biden's
presidency.
After the fiasco of the Afghan withdrawal last summer, America
lost credibility with its European allies. US intelligence looked
unprepared, and the operation of leaving was staggeringly
incompetent. What's more, European diplomats complained, America
didn't really consult with allies. America pulled out on its own
precipitous timetable, leaving countries that still had forces and
personnel in the country scrambling. When some Europeans said it
would be smart to leave a residual Nato force, the White House
ignored the pleas.
That heavy-handed mission was followed by another. In
September, the White House announced a nuclear submarine security
pact between Australia, Britain and the US. The pact left the
French, who had been negotiating their own sub sale to the
Australians, out in the cold. Worse, the Elysee Palace said it
learned of the new deal from the press. It was a masterclass in how
not to handle your oldest ally. The French were so furious that
President Biden apologised and admitted the US had been
clumsy.
But the damage was done.
By the autumn of 2021 Europeans were disappointed in the Biden
administration and felt their hopes that a post-Trump America would
be more collegial were ill-founded. When Washington started ringing
the alarm bell about Russia and Ukraine, Europeans weren't in much
mood to listen. "War-mongering" was how one EU diplomat described
it to me.
Whether it was the lesson of Afghanistan or the nature of this
particularly difficult catastrophe, we don't know, but the White
House handled this crisis very differently.
From the start it has consulted with its allies, many of whom
were sceptical. There are reports that US diplomats approached
Europeans as equals not subordinates. The administration shared
highly secret intelligence in a manner that was unprecedented. In
the months that led up to the invasion senior White House officials
made multiple trips to meet their European counterparts. President
Biden made regular phone calls to European leaders.
This wasn't Iraq in 2002, it wasn't Trump's America First, it
wasn't Afghanistan in 2021. This was genuine alliance
building.
On 27 January there was an indication that the shuttle
diplomacy was bearing fruit. A full month before the invasion,
during an otherwise ordinary press briefing, the White House
spokeswoman, Jennifer Psaki, announced that German Chancellor Olaf
Sholz would visit the White House on 7 February.
Securing that visit of the brand new German leader was an
indication that the administration both anticipated what was
coming, and knew what was needed: German co-operation. A visit to
the White House is a coup for any foreign leader, it's a useful
weapon of soft power. Yes, President Zelensky's articulate appeals
also played a big part in shifting German policy, but US diplomacy
helped win German support.
Beyond diplomacy, there is a new recognition here of
Washington's military limits, a realisation that force won't get
America everything it wants, however strong its army. That's an
unusual position for the world's biggest military.
When Saddam Hussein marched into Kuwait in 1990, the US
rallied the world to put boots on the ground to get him out. In
1999 President Clinton ordered Nato jets to conduct airstrikes in
Kosovo. After 9/11, the US strong-armed a coalition of the
unwilling to invade Iraq. In 2011, the US military was part of the
operation that helped topple Muammar Gaddafi in Libya.
Today Washington is holding back, resisting the emotional
pleas of Zelensky to use that military clout. It's sending weapons,
intelligence and cyber-support. But for the moment it won't do
more.
America knows it could impose, and most probably enforce, a
no-fly zone. It has the jets and missiles and pilots to do so. But,
as the White House says repeatedly, mobilising the might of the
Pentagon won't necessarily end this war, it might make it worse.
The more America leads, the greater the risk that Putin can sell
this to his own people as a fight between Russia and the US.
Which is why you won't hear this White House talk about regime
change, or democracy, or even freedom in Russia.
I reread President Bush's second inaugural address, delivered
in 2005, at the height of the Iraq war, when neo-conservatives ran
US foreign policy.
"It is the policy of the United States to seek and support the
growth of democratic movements and institutions in every nature and
culture, with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world,"
the newly re-elected president declared. Talk about hubris.
Yet the White House also understands the risks of not being
more assertive. It knows that not intervening could lead to the
deaths of countless more Ukrainian civilians, and President Putin
may strike a Nato country anyway. So it walks a tightrope with
potentially horrifying consequences, recognising that there are no
good answers. The US is left to help Ukrainians from the sidelines.
And maybe that is all they can do.
It is enough to make anyone more humble.
前一篇:面对经贸制裁俄罗斯亮出底牌
后一篇:一个没有信任的世界

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