| The
dog that did not bark is stirring restlessly in its sleep. Trade
protectionism, emblematic of the destructive economic policies
followed in the Great Depression of the 1930s, has been remarkably
absent since the onset of the global financial crisis in
2008. |
| 贸易保护主义是上世纪30年代大萧条(Great
Depression)中破坏性经济政策的代表。自2008年金融危机爆发以来，此类政策很少被各国采用，就像睡着了的恶狗停止咆哮。不过，现在它睡得并不安稳。 |
| But
with high unemployment in the rich countries and renewed threats of
economic weakness across the global economy, experts and policy
makers are becoming less sanguine that the beast will remain deep
in slumber. |
| 由于发达国家失业率高企以及全球经济再度面临疲软威胁，专家和政策制定者们已不再那么乐观地认为贸易保护主义这只恶狗仍会继续沉睡。 |
| Global
Trade Alert – a monitoring service run by Simon Evenett, a
professor at St Gallen university in Switzerland – reported on
Thursday that protectionist actions including tariff increases,
export restrictions and skewed regulatory changes were much higher
in 2010 and 2011 than previously thought, with many more in the
pipeline. |
| 瑞士圣加仑大学(University
of St Gallen)教授西蒙•伊文奈特(Simon Evenett)负责的监控组织“全球贸易预警”(Global Trade
Alert)上周四发表报告称，2010年和2011年，包括关税上调、出口限制及不公正的监管调整在内的保护主义措施大幅增多，增幅远远超过此前预期，另外还有大量保护主义措施正在制定当中。 |
| “The
world trading system did not settle down to low levels of
protectionism after the spike in beggar-thy-neighbour policies in
2009,” Mr Evenett says. |
| 伊文奈特指出：“以邻为壑的政策在2009年到达顶峰后，国际贸易体系中的保护主义并未回稳至一个较低水平。” |
| The
World Trade Organisation, whose analysis has been markedly more
optimistic than Mr Evenett, set off a distress flare last week when
it published its most recent report before next week’s summit of
the Group of 20 leading economies. “For the first time since the
beginning of the crisis in 2008, this report is alarming,” said
Pascal Lamy, WTO director-general. The EU, in a similar report last
week, said rises in protectionism were “staggering”. |
| 世贸组织(WTO)在上上周发布的最新报告中发出了保护主义可能抬头的预警，而在此之前WTO的态度一直远较伊文奈特乐观。WTO总干事帕斯卡尔•拉米(Pascal
Lamy)表示：“报告发出了预警，这是2008年危机爆发以来的头一次。”上上周，欧盟也在一份类似的报告中称，保护主义的上升势头“令人震惊”。本周，20国集团(G20)将召开峰会。 |
| Global
Trade Alert notes that, despite the G20’s pledge in 2008 to
maintain free trade, its member countries are collectively
responsible for nearly 80 per cent of global protectionist
actionsthis year, up from 60 per cent in 2009. The WTO says about 4
per cent of G20 trade is now affected by measures introduced since
2008. Mr Evenett’s estimates are much higher, giving 10 per cent as
an absolute minimum. |
| “全球贸易预警”指出，虽然2008年G20做出了维护自由贸易的承诺，但其成员国总体上却要对今年约80%的保护主义行为负有责任，这一比例高于09年的60%。WTO表示，目前G20贸易总额中约有4%受2008年后出台的保护主义措施影响。伊文奈特的估算值要大得多，他认为受影响的贸易额所占比重至少为10%。 |
| The
extent of trade restrictions remains hard to quantify: many involve
changes in licensing or regulation rather than more easily-measured
actions such as antidumping and countervailing (anti-subsidy)
duties on imports. Brazil and Argentina, for example, which are
engaged in an escalating trade dispute, have been raising licensing
requirements on each other’s exporters. |
| 目前贸易保护措施的影响依然难以量化，因为很多都涉及许可证或监管规则层面的改变，而非征收反倾销反补贴进口关税等容易计量的手段。例如，巴西和阿根廷近期持续调高针对对方出口企业的许可证要求，两国间的贸易争端正在不断升级。 |
| The
WTO’s dispute settlement system is being called into action to
mediate disagreements and particularly about whether a widespread
resort to emergency blocks on tariffs contravenes international
law. |
| 人们正要求WTO的争端解决机制采取行动调解争议，其中备受关注的一个问题是：目前各国普遍采用的紧急关税壁垒是否违反国际法。 |
| The
US, where the Obama administration recently brought its first case
against India at the WTO, is also fighting a resolute legal battle
against China, defending its method of imposing antidumping and
countervailing duties. |
| 美国正在与中国打一场坚决的法律战，以维护自己征收反倾销反补贴关税的做法。奥巴马(Obama)政府不久前还向WTO提起了任内第一起针对印度的诉讼。 |
| Washington
is also rewriting its domestic trade law to override an unhelpful
judgment on that front from a US federal court. |
| 此外，华盛顿方面还在修订国内贸易法，以求推翻美国一家联邦法院在这个问题上做出的不利于美国的判决。 |
| Local
reports suggest that Brazil, an experienced WTO litigator, will
soon bring a case against South African restrictions on its poultry
exports – the first against a fellow member of the Brics group of
emerging markets. |
| 巴西国内报道称，在WTO有着丰富诉讼经验的巴西，近期将就南非针对巴西家禽出口的限制向WTO提起诉讼。这是巴西首次对金砖国家(Brics)成员提起WTO诉讼。巴西与其他四大新兴经济体同属金砖国家。 |
| A
prominent Washington trade lawyer says: “Antidumping actions are
ending up in dispute settlement at the WTO, and it remains to be
seen whether the WTO will ride herd and set precedents that will
restrain the use of antidumping in future.” |
| 华盛顿一位颇有影响的国际贸易律师指出：“目前WTO争端解决机制能够终止已发生的反倾销行为。至于WTO能否对成员国加以引导并设定判例限制各国在未来采用反倾销措施，这件事仍有待观察。” |
| Conditions
for a further rise in protectionism remain in place. |
| 可能导致保护主义进一步抬头的因素仍然存在。 |
| Estimates
by economists at the World Bank suggest that in the case of the EU
and US, the falls in their real exchange rates since 2009 have
improved their companies’ competitiveness and limited their
recourse to trade restrictions. But with China, in particular,
slowing or reversing the appreciation of the renminbi this year in
response to a sluggish global economy, that effect may wear
off. |
| 世界银行(World
Bank)经济学家的估算显示，欧盟和美国自2009年以来的实际汇率下滑提升了当地企业的竞争力，使其无需采取过多贸易保护措施。但需特别指出的是，由于中国今年以来放缓甚至逆转了人民币升值进程以应对全球经济疲软，欧盟和美国实际利率下滑对保护主义起到的遏制作用或有所减弱。 |
| And
over the whole world trading system hangs the biggest cause of
tension – the threat of the global economy slipping back into
recession, increasing pressure on governments to favour domestic
companies in an attempt to keep jobs at home. |
| 全球经济重新陷入衰退的威胁是导致国际贸易形势紧张的最主要原因。受这种威胁影响，各国民众将向政府施加越来越大的压力，要求其偏袒本国企业，以求保住国内的就业岗位。 |
| Douglas
Irwin, an economics professor at Dartmouth College and expert on
the protectionism of the 1930s, says it is hard to see much impact
on trade flows as a result of the limited actions taken so far. But
he adds: “The longer that economic weakness endures, the more trade
restrictions become a permanent part of the environment. The lesson
of the Depression is that, once in place, restrictions become
increasingly difficult to reverse.” |
| 作为研究上世纪30年代保护主义政策的专家，达特茅斯学院(Dartmouth
College)经济学教授道格拉斯•欧文(Douglas
Irwin)指出，目前还很难看出保护主义对贸易流有多大影响，因为各国迄今采取的贸易保护行动力度有限。但他补充称：“经济疲软持续的时间越长，就会有越多的贸易保护措施固定成为经济环境的一部分。大萧条的教训是，保护主义政策一旦生根，就会变得越来越难以撤销。” |
| |
| 译者:邓颖 |
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