Expect little progress on Korean Peninsula in 2015 despite proposed talks

By Da Zhigang Source:Global Times Published: 2015-1-12 20:38:01

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North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jong-un's public absence, re-adjustment of power structure through consolidating party, government and military and his policy of simultaneously pursuing economic and nuclear development, all created surging undercurrents on the Korean Peninsula in 2014.

Meanwhile, the initiative of the trust-building process raised by the South Korean President Park Geun-hye, who was looking to move toward the peaceful unification of the peninsula through her breakthrough proposal in Dresden Declaration, and the surprise visit of the senior North Korean delegation to Incheon in October as part of a sports diplomacy push have shown potential dialogue between the two was still ongoing.

Both sides of the peninsula also made efforts to impress the outside world. North Korea has relied on Mongolia, moved closer to Russia, and drawn over Japan, but taken precautions against China, while South Korea has consolidated the relationship with the US and intensified cooperation with China.

In the end, after a year of hassle, it seems that the peninsula has returned to the starting point.

But if you think the "truce or dare" standoff had come to a conclusion by the end of 2014, you are wrong.

Surprisingly, Kim indicated during his New Year's speech that he is open to a summit with his South Korean counterpart. And South Korea has given a positive response with Park saying that she hopes North Korea will "rapidly come to the table for the inter-Korean dialogue and cooperation and have an actual consultation about peace of the peninsula and detailed projects for unification," during the first cabinet meeting this year.

With both sides sending signals of a possible thaw, will the proposed "highest-level talks" become the biggest show on the peninsula this year?

We have to take some things into consideration first. Whether the two sides will kick start the high-level dialogue depends on not only the two Koreas themselves, but other major powers as well. In other words, without the permission of the US and the support of China and Russia, it is impossible for the long-standing rivals to sit down and talk.

And promoting these "highest-level talks" requires both to follow a step-by-step approach. For Park, trusting Kim will not prove to be an easy thing. Thus, it will be a long process for the two countries to see each other's willingness and sincerity.

In addition, given the multi-party system in South Korea, there is little chance for a comprehensive restriction on civic groups' flying of anti-North Korean propaganda leaflets across the border, or the suspension of the US-South Korean joint military exercises.

For Kim, a step-by-step process is also needed because he cannot exhaust his limited bargaining power.

Moreover, Pyongyang has learnt that what cannot be acquired at the negotiating table must be fought for with military forces. Thus, North Korea is actually stepping up its military deployment in the border area, launching new armed forces and implementing the miniaturization and the practice of its nuclear weapons beyond its multilateral diplomacy.

Therefore, when the two Koreas will hold the "highest-level talks" does not matter, for the talks themselves have little geopolitical implications, but are an excuse or a way to release diplomatic pressure.

Future economic integration, national unity, and even the integration of the whole peninsula are still distant dreams. At least no genuine improvement could be realized in 2015.

The author is director of the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies at Heilongjiang Provincial Academy of Social Sciences. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn