加载中…
个人资料
潇湘剑客
潇湘剑客
  • 博客等级:
  • 博客积分:0
  • 博客访问:502,465
  • 关注人气:1,104
  • 获赠金笔:0支
  • 赠出金笔:0支
  • 荣誉徽章:
正文 字体大小:

最新发表:石油(的地理区位)和族群战争的爆发

(2017-05-09 10:49:44)
分类: 我自己的工作

 

最新发表:石油(的地理区位)和族群战争的爆发

 

 

我们关于石油(的地理区位)和族群战争的爆发的关系的研究产生了两篇英文文章。

结合定量与定性分析,并且比较定量和定性分析的结果,我们的研究基本上提供了关于石油和族群战争的爆发的关系的definitive回答。我们的研究也推翻(或者至少质疑)了此前关于“resource curse”或者是“oil curse”的许多不够精确的提法。

 

两篇都是lead article

 

欢迎下载批评:

 

Li and Tang. 2017. Location, Location, Location: The Ethno-Geography of Oil and the Onset of Ethnic War,” Chinese Political Science Review

ABSTRACT

Challenging and improving upon existing studies, we develop a more integrated and fine-grained theory regarding oil and the onset of ethnic war and present systematic quantitative evidences for our theory. We contend that it is the ethno-geographical location of oil rather than oil income, rent, or relative distribution/concentration that really connects oil with the onset of ethnic war. When the core territory of a minority group has a significant amount of oil, the minority group is more likely to rebel against a central state dominated by another group and oil is strongly associated with the onset of ethnic war. In contrast, when oil is located with the core territory of a dominant majority group or that a country has a fairly even distribution of ethnic groups and no group can lay an exclusive claim to oil, oil is not associated with a higher risk of ethnic war. We construct two new indicators regarding the ethno-geographical location of oil from two different sources and test our hypotheses with the two new indicators. Statistical results strongly support our hypotheses. Together with evidences from case studies with process-tracing that demonstrate the mechanisms singled out by our theory really did operate in driving ethnic wars in an accompanying paper, we provide a more complete and close-to-definitive answer to the question whether and how oil is associated with the onset of ethnic war. Our exercise also points to a broader theory regarding the ethno-geography of commodity-type mineral resource with the onset of ethnic war.

 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41111-017-0062-2

 

Tang et al 2017. Does Oil Cause Ethnic War? Comparing Evidence from Process-tracing with Quantitative Results, Security Studies

ABSTRACT

This article contributes both empirically and methodologically. Empirically, we seek to advance our understanding of an important puzzle: does oil cause ethnic war? Methodologically, we seek to identify more precisely the different weaknesses and strengths of the quantitative approach and case studies with process-tracing by explicitly comparing results from these two approaches on the same empirical question. We thus subject the statistical association between the ethnogeographical location of oil and the onset of ethnic war to test with process-tracing. Examining several pathway cases, we find that oil has rarely been a deep cause of ethnic war. Instead, the ethnogeographical location of oil either reignites dormant conflict that has deeper roots in ethnic resentment and hatred or intensifies ongoing conflict, mostly by facilitating the operation of two interconnected mechanisms. Our study echoes the notion that quantitative exercises alone often cannot establish specific causal mechanisms or how contextual factors impact the operation of these mechanisms, and it is precisely on these two key fronts that qualitative exercises possess critical advantages. Hence, quantitative methods and qualitative methods are complementary rather than competitive. Our study also yields important policy implications for preventing and managing ethnic conflict in countries with rich mineral resource.

 

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306392

 

感谢我的合作者李辉、熊易寒;以及“五角场学派”的其它成员的批评和支持。

0

阅读 收藏 喜欢 打印举报/Report
  

新浪BLOG意见反馈留言板 欢迎批评指正

新浪简介 | About Sina | 广告服务 | 联系我们 | 招聘信息 | 网站律师 | SINA English | 产品答疑

新浪公司 版权所有