摩天大楼指数——如影随形的经济危机

Skyscraper Index——Inseparable Economic Crisis as the Shadow

作为一种以巨大的经济力量为支撑的建筑物，摩天大楼常被民众和政客视为展示经济繁荣、社会进步的标志。有些经济学家则持完全相反的看法，认为摩天大楼的出现，特别是摩天大楼的纪录被刷新，往往预示着经济即将衰退。

As a building upheld by a tremendous economic force, the skyscraper is often viewed by the masses and politicians as a sign demonstrating economic prosperity and social advancement. But some economists own the completely opposite thoughts, who suppose that erecting of the skyscrapers, especially breaking their records, always foreshows the befalling of recession onto the economy.

“高楼建成之日，即是市场衰退之时”，这是德意志银行的证券分析师安德鲁·劳伦斯于1999年发表的判言。2006年2月15日，雷曼兄弟公司在北京召开全球经济会议，其全球首席经济学家卢埃林向我国客户提及“摩天大楼指数”的预言：“如果全球有发生经济危机的可能性，那很可能会在2007年或2008年。”

“The establishment of the tower will fix the time for the recession of the market,” the judgment issued by Andrew Lawrence, a security analyst with the Deutsche Bank. On Feb. 15, 2006, Lehman Brothers Holding Inc. convene in Beijing the global economy conference, at which Lewellen, the global chief economist of the company, mentioned to Chinese clients the prediction of “Skyscraper Index”——“if there should be the chance to economic crisis on the globe, that would probably occur in the year of 2007 or 2008.”

雷曼的首席经济学家预见了2007年到2008年的经济危机，但却不曾想到，雷曼的百年基业正是在这场危机中化为泡影。对于经济而言，摩天大楼是荣耀还是诅咒？其与经济危机之间是否真的存在这样密切的联系呢？

Although the chief economist of Lehman Brothers has predicted the economic crisis erupted from 2007 to 2008, he has never called to mind that the hundred-year foundation of Lehman had been melted into thin air just in this crisis. As for the economy, would it mean the glory or curse by skyscraper? Does it indeed have an intimate relationship with the economic crisis?

1999年，安德鲁·劳伦斯经过研究验证了摩天大楼与经济危机的关联，并将这种关联称为“摩天大楼指数”。每一幢刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼的崛起，往往都伴随着经济的衰退。自20世纪初以来，全球共出现了四轮摩天大楼热，而每一次，都伴随着经济危机或金融动荡。

In 1999, Andrew Lawrence tested and verified through research the relevance between the skyscraper and economic crisis, which is named “Skyscraper Index”. Every springing up of skyscraper that sets a new world record, would be always accompanied with economic recession. Since the beginning of 20^th century, there have appeared four rounds of skyscraper construction frenzies around the globe, each of which had but emerged along with economic crisis or financial fluctuation.

20世纪20年代，美国经济转好，证券市场再度空前繁荣，民用、商用房产建设高歌猛进。这期间，三座刷新纪录的摩天大楼先后兴建。纽约的华尔街40号、克莱斯勒大厦和帝国大厦相继于1929年至1931年的三年中落成，但随之而来的不是新的繁荣，而是空前的大萧条。在经历了被美国人称之为“黄金时代”的20世纪60年代强劲、持续的经济繁荣后，纽约的世贸中心和芝加哥的西尔斯大厦开始兴建。1972年和1974年，两座再次刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼相继落成，随后，全球经济发生了严重滞胀。

In 1920s, American economy was in better shape with an unprecedented prosperity renewedly, under which residential and commercial property development advanced triumphantly. During the period, three skyscrapers brushing the existing record have been built in sequence. Building No. 40 in Wall Street of New York, Crystler Mansion and Empire mansion had successively finished over the three years between 1929 and 1931. Nevertheless, what ensued was not a fresh round of thriving but an unparalleled great recession. Having experienced the robust and sustained economic flourishing in 1960s that was named by the Americans the Golden Age, Trade Center in New York and Sears Tower in Chicago began to construct. In 1972 and 1974, two skyscrapers brushing the record once more had been completed in succession. Whereafter, the global economy suffered grave stagflation.

摩天大楼与经济危机的关联如此密切，很难用巧合来理解，那么究竟是什么原因让经济危机总是与摩天大楼如影随形呢？

Skyscraper has such a close relationship with the economic crisis, which it is hard to interpret with the wording of coincidence. Then what is the reason to make both get together as shadows for each other?

首先，人性使然。人性当中有盲目自信的一面。具体体现在对客观事物认识不足，偏执于对事物的主观看法上。劳伦斯把他发现的经济危机与摩天大楼的联系称为“百年病态关联”，但此类现象，在人类社会中又何止只存在了百年。以史为鉴，我们不难发现，在我国历史的长河中，此类现象早有体现。商朝兴盛时，纣王兴建造鹿台，引得民怨四起最终于鹿台自焚；清代鼎盛时，乾隆帝大举修建园林，导致国力衰落最终丧权辱国。

First, it’s the human nature that makes lt. Inside the human nature exists an aspect of blind confidence, which embodies in detail in the deficiency of recognition for the objective things and partiality of the subjective views towards the things. Lawrence called the connection between economic crisis and skyscraper as Century morbid relevancy. But as for this kind of phenomenon, it has sustained far more than only one century in the community of human being. Mirroring from history, we will never be difficult to find that, in the river of our history, such phenomenon had already given expression. In the thriving period of Shang dynasty, King Zhou is inclined to build Lu Tower, which provoked the complaint among the mass here and there and ultimately led him to self-burning on the tower; in the great prosperity of Qing dynasty, Empire Qianlong went all out constructing gardens, which caused the declination of national power and finally led to the situation of humiliating the country and forfeiting the sovereignty.

其次，利益推动。在商业行为中，逐利是前提条件。在经济繁荣之前，通常有一个低利率的过程，这也是经济向繁荣周期转化的一个先决条件。而在经济繁荣的过程中，利率相对于人们对于未来收益的预期来说，一直都是低的。所以，就会产生一系列的利益传导途径，也就是前面所提到的利益链条。经济的繁荣和相对较低的利率，对土地价值和资本成本有着直接的影响。在土地价格、企业需求和资金支撑三个因素所构成的利益链的作用下，可以刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼计划，就应运而生了。

Second, it is the interest that gives impetus. In the business conducts, the premise is the pursuit of interest. Prior to the prosperity of economy, there generally is a process of low interest, which is a prerequisite for economy to transform to the period of prosperity. And in the course of economic flourishing, opposite to the people’s anticipation towards their future returns, interst rate will always be low. Thereby, it will lead to a series of conducting channels of interest, which was mentioned above as the interest chain. The economic prosperity and relatively lower interest rate, would have a direct influence on the land value and capital cost. Under the effect of interest chain comprised by land value, enterprise demand and capital support, the plan of skyscraper that could brush off the existing world record, ensued.

就像日有昼夜、季有冬夏一样，经济也是存在景气周期的。任何商品的价格，都会受到供需关系的影响。否极泰来，盛极而衰，低廉的利率、膨胀的需求、上涨的资本价格，以及大多数人盲目乐观的心态，所集合产生的“黄金状态”构成了摩天大楼的需求，但这种状态是不可持续的。

Just like there are day and night around a daytime and winter and summer in a season, it exists the circle of booming. The price of any commodity would be subject to the influence of supply and demand. After the extreme of negative would be positive, after the extreme of the prosperity be waning. Featured by the cheap interest rate, swelling demands, rising capital price, and blind minds for optimism by the majority, the combined “golden state” constitutes the need for the skyscraper, which would never be sustainable.

所以，通常是在经济已经步入衰退的时候，摩天大楼才刚刚竣工；在它真正投入使用的时候，经济很可能已经深陷困境。这就导致了经济危机总是与摩天大楼的兴建如影随形，也常使全球第一建筑成为逝去繁荣的纪念碑。

As a result, commonly when the economy stepped into the recession, the skyscaper has scarcely finished; at the time that It really put into use, the economy would be most likely to trap deep in the dilemma. It causes the economic crisis and the construction of skyscraper to get together as shadows for each other, as well as make usually the monument marking the elapsing prosperity for the number one building on the globe.