Food price inflation looks set to continue as a threat into 2012 as expectations for the US corn harvest, the world’s largest, are being lowered by the week.

食品价格通胀的威胁看来将延续到2012年，因为有关美国玉米收成的预期一周比一周低。美国是全球最大的玉米生产国。

Analysts and trading executives are cutting estimates of how many bushels each acre will grow as the effects of punishing heat last month result in smaller ears of corn. The private-sector estimates are well below already disappointing official forecasts published earlier this month.

分析师和交易公司高管纷纷下调了每英亩地的产量预期，原因是上月的酷热天气导致玉米穗长得比较瘦小。本月早些时候发布的官方预期已是令人失望，而私人机构的估算远低于官方预期。

The US accounts for half the world’s corn exports and the size of the crop has an outsize impact on global prices. Corn is also a critical feeding commodity, so a smaller crop would push prices higher, rapidly translating into more expensive beef, lamb, pork and poultry and higher food inflation.

美国占全球玉米出口量的一半，美国玉米的收成状况对国际粮价的影响尤其大。玉米也是一种关键的饲料，因此收成降低将导致价格上涨，迅速推高牛肉、羊肉、猪肉和家禽等的价格，加剧食品通胀。

A tour of fields in eight Corn Belt states last week came up with a US yield of 147.9 bushels an acre, according to organiser Pro Farmer, 5.1 bushels less than a government forecast on August 11 and potentially the lowest since 2005.

Pro Farmer上周在美国“玉米带”的8个州组织了一次田间巡察，预期每英亩玉米地的产量为147.9蒲式耳，比8月11日政府发布的预测值低5.1蒲式耳。这可能是2005年以来最低的每英亩产量。

Grain markets have had some relief after Russia and Ukraine ended export bans on cereals declared after a drought in 2010. Ukraine will surpass Brazil this year as the world’s third-largest corn exporter.

俄罗斯和乌克兰取消了2010年旱灾后出台的谷物出口禁令后，谷物市场缓了一口气。乌克兰今年将取代巴西，成为全球第三大玉米出口国。

Yet, the smaller than expected US corn crop could still push wholesale prices higher. The price of corn is on the upswing and threatens to surpass a June record of nearly $8 a bushel. Futures for December delivery last week rose 5.8 per cent $7.67.

然而，美国玉米产量小于预期，仍可能推高批发价格。玉米价格正处于上行通道，并可能打破6月创下的每蒲式耳近8美元的历史最高纪录。12月交割的玉米期货上周累计上涨5.8%，至每蒲式耳7.67美元。

The buoyant outlook for food commodities prices bodes well for the agribusiness sector. But the rising cost of food in emerging markets could heighten social pressures and force central bankers to raise interest rates.

粮食大宗商品价格的上涨走势利好农业企业，但在新兴经济体，食品价格持续上涨可能加剧社会压力，迫使各国央行加息。

A UN food price index remains near record levels. In the west, slow growth and stagnant incomes have been a brake on price increases. In the US, consumer prices for food eaten at home have gained 5.4 per cent in the past 12 months.

联合国的食品价格指数仍处于历史高位附近。在西方，经济增长缓慢和收入停滞对食品价格涨势产生了抑制作用。在美国，在家食用的食品消费价格在过去一年里上涨了5.4%。