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Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: the diver | 分析:港股暴跌为哪般?

(2011-08-10 14:06:21)
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Foreign money is always the hottest, as illustrated on Tuesday by the slump in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index.

外资总是最烫手的钱,周二香港恒生指数的暴跌便证明了这一点。

The Hang Seng lost 5.7 per cent during the day - its biggest one-day loss since 2008 – making it the weakest of Asia’s markets on Tuesday. Its volatility index reached levels last seen in 2009.

恒指昨日收跌5.7%,为自2008年以来的最大单日跌幅,这也使它成为昨日亚洲表现最差的市场。恒指波幅指数(VHSI)也创下了2009以来的新高。

Heavy selling by foreigners investors in Hong Kong, one of the region’s most internationally-oriented bourses, drove the underperformance, said Todd Martin, Asia equity strategist with Société Générale.

法国兴业银行(Société Générale)亚洲股票策略师托德•马丁(Todd Martin)表示,香港的外国投资者抛售股票,是导致香港股市表现糟糕的原因所在。香港交易所是亚太地区最国际化的交易所之一。

In comparison, the Shanghai Composite closed down just 0.03 per cent. Korea’s Kospi index, the second weakest performer, slipped 3.6 per cent after a steep mid-day tumble was reversed in part as public sector funds entered the market to buy shares.

相比之下,昨日上证综指仅收跌0.3%。表现第二糟糕的韩国综合指数(Kospi)下跌3.6%——韩国公共部门基金入市购买股票,在一定程度上挽救了午盘的直线下跌。

Overall, mainland Chinese investors are more bullish on their own companies than foreign investors are about the more open Hong Kong market. Companies listed on both the Hong Kong and mainland markets have seen their mainland shares trade at a 6 per cent premium to their Hong Kong listings, Martin said.

总而言之,中国内地投资者对于本土公司的态度,要比外国投资者对于更开放的香港市场的态度更为乐观。马丁表示,同时在香港和内地上市的企业,会发现其内地股价较香港股价有6%的溢价。

The premium is most pronounced for Chinese industrial stocks, a cyclical sector that moves in line with overall growth. Another strategist said the Hand Seng’s exposure to that sector means it slips as investors worry that Chinese growth is at risk from factors like inflation, which is still running high according to the most recent data release.

这种溢价在中国工业类股中表现得最为明显——工业是一种周期性行业,与经济总体增长紧密相连。另一位策略师表示,恒指中工业类股所占比重意味着,它会随着投资者对中国经济增长的担心而下滑。投资者担心中国的增长将因通胀等因素而面临危险——根据最新发布的数据,中国的通胀水平仍然维持在高位。

“[The Hang Seng’s fall] is a signal to me that foreigners are selling because of global concerns,” Martin said. “Mainlanders are more bullish technically, and I’m just of the belief that foreigners are getting more and probably too heavily affected” by the US downgrade and European debt concerns.

“(恒指下跌)对我而言是一个信号,表明外国投资者正因全球不安因素的影响而抛售股票,”兴业银行的马丁表示,“内地投资者在技术层面上更为乐观,而我认为,外国投资者受美国信用降级和欧债危机的影响更大,很可能是过于严重了。”

Part of the reason for the divergent performance may also just be that the Hang Seng was catching up to the trend. On Monday’s trading, the Shanghai Composite index had fallen 3.8 per cent to 2,526.80, its lowest in more than 12 months, while the Hang Seng fell just 2.2 per cent.

中国内地与香港股市的表现差异,部分原因也可能是恒指的表现有所滞后。周一,上证综指下跌了3.8%,收于2526.80点,为逾12个月以来的最低水平,而当天恒指仅下跌了2.2%。


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