加载中…全球变暖趋势16年前就已停止了吗？
(2012-11-01 10:04:01)
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天气预报每日邮报英国气象局全球变暖气候变化文化 |
全球变暖趋势16年前就已停止了吗？
Global Warming Stopped 16
Years Ago?
《全球变暖趋势16年前就已停止了吗？》这是前段时间CCTV报道所谓“英国气象局研究表明全球变暖已停止”假新闻的有关声明。英国大使馆的声明认为这类假新闻时常出现在英国媒体。历史上存在不止一个15年的时期，看起来都像是在降温。但只要看看整个百年序列，全球增暖的趋势一目了然。
每日邮报一篇题为“英国气象局报告显示，全球变暖16年前就停止了”的报道在中国得到广泛传播，该报告声称自1997年初至2012年8月，全球整体气温没有明显上升。
A Daily Mail report, headlined 'Global
warming stopped 16 years ago, Met Office report reveals' was widely
reported in China claiming that there was no discernible rise in
aggregate global temperatures from the beginning of 1997 until
August 2012.
据说这一说法是基于英国气象局的数据而得出的，但多个科研机构包括英国气象局以及伦敦政治经济学院都发布了反驳意见。英国议会能源及气候变化特别委员会主席Tim
Yeo本周来访中国时，向第二届国家气候变化专家委员会主任杜祥琬教授表示，这种文章在有些英国媒体上很常见，不会对英国议会能源及气候变化特别委员会或英国政府关于气候变化的立场产生任何影响。
A number of scientific organisations,
including the UK Met Office on whose data this claim was supposedly
based and the London School of Economic and Political Science (LSE)
, have both issued rebuttals. And this week, Tim Yeo, the Chairman
of the UK Parliament’s Select Committee on Energy and Climate
Change confirmed to Professor Du Xiangwan, the Chairman of the
Second National Committee of Experts on Climate Change during his
visit to China that these sort of articles were common in some
parts of the UK media and that they do not have any effect either
on the position of his Committee or that of the UK government on
climate change.
每日邮报文章 The Daily Mail
article
这篇文章刊登在2012年10月13日的英国《周日邮报》上，标题是“英国气象局报告显示，全球变暖16年前就停止了”。该文章是基于最新出版的HadCRUT4数据库。该数据库之所以被称为Hadcrut4，是因为它是由气象局的哈德利(Hadley)中心和气候研究小组(Crut)共同发布的。该数据库收集了从1850年至2012年8月的每月全球平均气温数据。
The story ran in the UK newspaper ‘The
Mail on Sunday’, under the headline 'Global warming stopped 16
years ago, Met Office report reveals' on 13 October 2012. The
article was apparently based on the publication of an updated
version of the HadCRUT4 dataset of monthly global average
temperature measurements from January 1850 to August 2012. The
dataset is called Hadcrut4 because it is published by the Hadley
center at the Met Office and the Climatic Research Unit (Crut).
伦敦政治经济学院对该文章的分析 LSE’s
analysis of the article
该文章的主题是全球变暖在20世纪90年代中期就“停止”了。作者并没有描述HadCRUT4所有数据显示的趋势，只选取了其中一部分数据来支撑其论点。
The main thesis of the article was that
global warming “stopped” in the mid-1990s. The journalist did not
describe what the overall HadCRUT4 dataset shows, but selected a
particular portion of it supported his argument.
下图就是1970年1月至2012年8月HadCRUT4中每月全球气温散点图。尽管很多点比较分散，但这些数据明显表明存在很强的变暖趋势，每十年上升0.164摄氏度。在变暖主趋势周围分布的每月数据反映了自然易变性的影响以及有关全球气候的其他进程的影响，如厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜。正是由于这种自然易变性，像英国气象局和世界气象组织这样的机构才建议气温的测量期限不能少于30年。
The chart below is a plot of the monthly
global temperature data from HadCRUT4 for the period from January
1970 to August 2012. Although there is a lot of scatter, it is
clear that these data define a strong warming trend of 0.164°C per
decade. The variation in monthly values around the warming trend
reflects the impact of natural variability and the effects of other
processes that influence the global climate, such as El Ni?o and La
Ni?a. It is because of this natural variability that bodies such as
the Met Office and the World Meteorological Organisation recommend
measuring temperature trends over periods of not less than 30
years.
http://s16/mw690/6edf4ea4tcd657a74531f&690
每日邮报文章忽略了HadCRUT4
中1997年1月之前的所有数据，只考虑过去15年的每月气温测量数据。
The Daily Mail article ignored all the
HadCRUT4 data from prior to January 1997, and instead only
considered monthly temperature measurements from about the last 15
years.
每日邮报选择1997年1月作为起始时间是有意的。1997年4月出现20世纪最强的厄尔尼诺事件，导致全球气温异常升高。1997年1月至2012年中这段时期没有出现过厄尔尼诺现象，因此每日邮报选择这段时期就可以使发现全球变暖不明显的可能性最大化。
The choice by the Daily Mail of January
1997 as a starting point was very deliberate. In April 1997, the
strongest El Ni?o event of the 20th century was underway, causing
global temperatures to become anomalously warm.
By choosing January 1997 as a starting point,
with the end point in mid-2012 when there was no El Ni?o, the Daily
Mail maximised the chances of finding a time period over which
there was no measurable global warming.
那些自称为气候变化怀疑论者也用类似的方式试图掩盖全球变暖的事实。如果考虑年度气温，自1970年以来有很多个15年的数据显示变暖形势并不严重。以此来看，自1997年1月份以来的数据并非异常。
There have been similar attempt to hide
global warming in this way by self-proclaimed climate change
‘skeptics’. If one considers annual temperatures, there are a
number of 15-year sequences since 1970 when warming has been
statistically insignificant. In that regard, the period since
January 1997 is not anomalous.
英国气象局对每日邮报文章的分析 UK
Met Office’s analysis of Daily Mail article
在每日邮报报道发布之后，英国气象局立即发表了一篇博客对其进行抨击，博客中展示了下图，也批评了这一时间期限的选择，即1997年8月（正处于强大的厄尔尼诺中）至2012年8月（二次拉尼娜临近结尾）。
Immediately following the release of the
Daily Mail report, the UK Met Office instantly debunked it with a
blog post that included the following chart and again criticised
the selection of a “trend from August 1997 (in the middle of an
exceptionally strong El Nino) to August 2012 (coming at the tail
end of a double-dip La Nina):
“正如我们之前强调的，选择短期内的一个起始时间和终止时间极具误导性。由于气候系统内在的易变性，气候变化的趋势只有从超过十年的时期中才能观察到。如果选取HadCRUT4中一段更长的时间期限，就可以看到完全不同的趋势。如，1979年至2011年的数据显示每十年上升0.16摄氏度（国家气候数据中心数据集显示每十年上升0.15摄氏度，GISS数据显示每十年上升0.16摄氏度）。观察这段时期中连续的几个十年期限，每个十年都比前一个十年温度更高，所以90年代比80年代暖和，21世纪前十年温度又高于90年代和80年代。温度最高的十个年份中有八个年份出现在最近的十年（见下图）。
“As we’ve stressed before, choosing a
starting or end point on short-term scales can be very misleading.
Climate change can only be detected from multi-decadal timescales
due to the inherent variability in the climate system. If you use a
longer period from HadCRUT4 the trend looks very different. For
example, 1979 to 2011 shows 0.16°C/decade (or 0.15°C/decade in the
NCDC dataset, 0.16°C/decade in GISS). Looking at successive decades
over this period, each decade was warmer than the previous – so the
1990s were warmer than the 1980s, and the 2000s were warmer than
both. Eight of the top ten warmest years have occurred in the last
decade (see chart below).”
在过去140年间，全球表面温度上升了0.8
摄氏度。但是，在此期间，有几个十年或十年以上的时间段内，温度上升得非常缓慢或者出现温度下降。目前所处的变暖减缓的时期，并非史无前例，15年之久也并非异常。
Over the last 140 years global surface temperatures have risen
by about 0.8oC. However, within this record there have been several
periods lasting a decade or more during which temperatures have
risen very slowly or cooled. The current period of reduced warming
is not unprecedented and 15 year long periods are not
unusual.
更多信息 Further information
英国气象局的官方新闻发布 UK Met Office’s official press
release
http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/10/14/
met-office-in-the-media-14-october-2012/
伦敦政治经济学院格兰瑟姆气候变化与环境研究所的分析 Analysis of the
Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment,
LSE
http://www2.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/Media/Commentary/2012/
october/myth-that-global-warming-stopped-in-mid-1990s.aspx
令人信服的图表，明确显示地球在不断变暖 Convincing charts that
make clear the planet just keeps warming
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/15/1014151/
ten-charts-that-make-clear-the-planet-just-keeps-warming/mobile=nc
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