港市格局稳定向好 中度仓位云卷云舒

一、美经济数据持续向好 续撑港市稳定格局

昨日美国供应管理协会公布的12月美制造业指数环比增至57点，虽略低于经济学家57.2点的平均预期，但仍表明制造业处于增长格局，且相较11月份的56.6点有所提升。同时美国政府公布11月美营建开支环比增0.4%，超过经济学家的平均预期0.2%，连续第三个月环比上涨。向好的制造业数据及营建开支数据表明美国经济仍处于复苏增长状态，且增速有所加快。美国公布的11月工厂订单数字优于市场预期的下降0.1%，增长0.7%，显示美国制造业基本情况仍在好转。同时美国2年期国债收益率下跌，显示市场对短阶美国经济仍然抱乐观态度。美联储相关官员对美国经济状况好转亦做出肯定，对购买国债计划未作出调整亦支撑市场资金的流动性。美国薪资服务提供商自动数据处理公司昨日发布私营就业报告数据，显示12月美国私营企业就业岗位大幅超过市场平均预期的10万，增加了29.7万。同时美国供应管理协会发布的12月非制造业指数增至57.1点，高于受调查经济学家平均预期的55.6点。该类利好数据及消息支撑了美股维系高位。

1. Positive peripheral data  HK market being supported

Yesterday manufacturing index of December announced by the US supply management's association increased to 57 points, although slightly lower than the average expectation of economists, which is 57.2, but still showed manufacturing sector is in growth pattern, and compared with 56.6 point in November, it is improved a little. Meanwhile the United States government announced US construction spending in November increased more than 0.4 percent, more than the average economists expected 0.2%, a third consecutive month-on-month rise. Good manufacturing data and construction spending data shows the U.S. economy is still in a stable  recovery increasing pattern. American published factory orders figures in November has increased by 0.7%, better than market expectations that fell by 0.1%, showing manufacturing basic situation is still improving. Meanwhile US 2-year national debt yield fell, showing market are optimistic to the U.S. economy in short stage. US ferderal officials asured the U.S. economy is in improving condition, and market liquidity is supported by  national debt plan has not been adjusted. American salary service provider automatic data processing company released private employment report data, showing December jobs data from US private enterprise is well above average market expectations of 100 thousand, increasing to 297 thousand. Meanwhile the US non-manufacturing index of December issued by the assotiation of supplying management increases to 57.1 points, higher than the average surveyed economists expected 55.6 points. Such good datas and information has supported the US stocks to sustain high.

二、欧债危机担忧重燃 中国支持欧债撑预期

中国国家领导李克强将于4日至12日对西班牙、德国、英国进行正式访问。其中被前期各大服务者评级机构调低债务评级的西班牙昨日刊发了李克强文章，文中展现李克强代表中方继续购买西班牙国债的承诺，同时表明了中国政府对西班牙金融市场恢复的信心。在前期西班牙债务被服务者评级机构穆迪、标普公司调低级别后，中方的此次表示有益于提升欧洲市场信心，对于引领市场向好修复预期具有一定积极作用，同时亦将支撑机构投资者于港市的做多交易。对于占港海外机构投资数量近四分之一的英国而言，英国富时100指数呈现阶段上扬走势，自12月初以来，阶段累计涨幅约8.89%，显示走势格局强势稳健，同时考虑中国较为平稳的经济数据及港市的良好投资环境，料英机构投资者做多热情能一定程度延续。注意到欧元区国家国债发行密集，其中前期被穆迪标普等投资者服务评级机构调低债务评级的葡萄牙发行了5亿欧元债券，利率3.68%，维持较高水平，反映了市场对该国债务形势及经济前景的担忧仍然维系。市场投资者恢复对葡萄牙等主权国家债务的担忧形势料将对港市的整体持续向上突破带来压力。

2. China continously buy Euro debts  HK market returns stable and positive pattern

China's national leadership Li Keqiang is on an official visit to Spain, Germany, England from 4th to 12th. A certain newspaper in Spain recently published Li’s article that China shall continously buy national debts of Spain, which country’s debt leval has been lowered by large server rating agencies, the commitment of China's government indicates China’s confidence on the recovery of Spanish financial markets. After previous Spanish debt level was lowered by server rating agency moody, s&p company, China’s remark is positive to repair Europe market confidence and positive to better off the market expectations, simultaneously it also will support institutional investors doing-more behavior on the HK market. For England, institution investors in HK market of this country has made up to a quarter more or less of overseas investment agencies, the FTSE 100 index rose from early December stagely by 8.89%, showing accumulative steady strong trend, considering the pattern of China's more stable economic data and good investment environment of HK, it is anticipated the institutional investors from England shall do more with enthusiam to a certain degree.

三、政府再临货币悖论 港市格局稳定向好

中国房地产市场2010年四大一线城市统计数据出台，北京最高，全年新建商品房同比涨幅42%，最低的广州全年新建商品房同比涨幅亦达23%。成交量与价格呈现背离。该尴尬结局一再否定中国政府的行政性手段及货币性调节工具，结果已经反映了政府面对当前深切影响民生幸福指数的房价未发挥公信力作用。长期的社会文化理念及行事经营习惯或仍将支撑房价的居高不下。国家统计局昨日公布了十二月下旬国内50个城市29种主要食品平均价格，相较12月上旬超过7成价格反弹，尤其是关系民生的蔬菜价格，同时米面蛋类价格亦未有下调。自去年央行连续八次货币紧缩措施以来，市场过高的流动性将于今年逐步得以遏制，由于天气寒冷及处于调节初期因素，当前货币当局的货币紧缩措施尚未收到明显的客观遏制效果，具遏制作用的当属之前的市场预期及行政性抑制手段。而价格的抬头趋势，或引领市场涨价预期重燃，预计中国货币当局仍有可能采取货币紧缩措施来打消市场涨价预期，而当前人民币的续创新高，亦将给中国央行增加一定压力，央行的每步决策均需格外谨慎。为此，该市场预期及政府博弈格局将深切影响港市及内地股市的格局，即趋势性上涨或下跌的条件均不成立，短阶上升后震荡格局可能偏大。为此，投资者仍可中度左右仓位持有，以适应当前的震荡向好格局。

3. China government in monetary delema  HK market up-going trend condition not ready

Statistical data of China's real estate market 2010 of the four first-tier cities appeared, Beijing is highest with 42% year-on-year increase of newly builded commodity house, even the lowest guangzhou is also with a year-on-year 23% increase Volume and price appear to deviate. The embarrassing result has contionously denied repeatedly administrative means and monetary adjustment tools implemented by the Chinese government, the results already reflect the credibility role of government facing the current deeply affected people's livelihood happiness index by house-price is hard to play. Long-term social and cultural concept and action and operation habit has supported house prices to sustain high position. The national bureau of statistics released recently that during domestic 50 cities in late December average prices of 29 major food has rebounded compared with early December, especially the vegetable prices deep related to people's livelihood, while prices of rice, flour and eggs also have not been cut down. Since last year eight consecutive monetary tightening measures by the central bank, market high liquidity will be gradually curbed this year, because the weather is cold and market liquidity is in early regulating period, current monetary tightening measures have not yet received apparently curbing effect, the curbing role should belong to the previous negative market expectations and administrative methods. But the commodity price has apparently showed up trend, it is possible to lead the market to expect that China monetary authorities may still take monetary tightening measures to dispel market expectations, but the current strong value up trend of RMB also will increase pressure to the central bank of China, each step of decision-making by the central bank needs more caution. For this purpose, the market expectations and government's game pattern will deeply affect port city and the mainland stock market pattern, namely trend rise or fall possibility and spread sideways are little concussion pattern may slants big, but may cause large or amplitude. Therefore, investors can still be moderate or the following positions hold, to meet current shock pattern.

总结近日国际市场，纽约黄金2月期货近四交易日累跌约3.30%，美元指数近四交易日累涨约2.13%，对当前美国公布的经济向好数据有所反映，国际资本回流股市明显，支撑股市维系高位。由于中国人民银行的外汇管制及货币调节，近日资本回流对港市影响明显优于内地，港市近五交易日累涨约3.14%，且量能有所温和放大，维系恒指23600—23823点位区间多空较优博弈区间上沿，并于盘中一度突破上沿，有将恒指前期左肩80.9%分割线下方盘面掩盖之势，虽成交量未放量突破做以配合，午盘一定程度港市回落，然仍呈现稳定向好格局。由于内地一季度初因天气寒冷等因素仍面临通胀压力，货币当局政策亦有不确定性，内地股仍将一定程度拖累港市，故单边上涨政策条件仍未形成，如量能未明显放量突破，港市将维系以恒指为标志的23600—23823多空较优博弈区间。考虑港市短阶的整体稳定向好格局，投资者大可把持四五成仓位上落自如。

New York February gold futures fell nearly 3.3% during recent four trading days, US dollar index rose 1.34% during recent four trading days, reflected by good US economic data released currently, the international capital returns to stock market significantly, supporting stock prices sustain high. Due to the foreign exchange control of the people's bank of China and currency adjustment, recently influence of capital backflow to HK market is obviously better than the mainland, the HK market has rose about 3.14% in the previous five trading days, and quantity has mild increased, sustaining the HSI vibrates between 23600-23823 point interval, reflecting a stable and positive structure. Due to the mainland still face inflationary pressures in early period of the first quarter, policy of monetary authorities also is uncertain, the mainland stock will still to certain degree drag HK market, unilateral rise conditions is still not formed, if quantity can not obviously up breakthrough, HSI marked as HK market will vibrate between 23600 -23823 interval, which is the best gambling interval. Considering wholly stable and positive pattern of HK market in short stage, investors can hold four or five positions with smooth mind during vibrations of market.

三甲金融港股研究员：刘晓杰