港市整体稍偏弱 短阶难趋势上扬

一、央行加息打击预期 整体拖累港市

在市场普遍预期之前央行提高存款准备金率后年内不会再有货币紧缩举措，然上周末提高的0.25个百分点的一年期存贷款基准利率出乎市场预料，对证券二级市场而言为重大利空。至此央行已于今年提高存贷款基准利率两次，提高存款准备金率六次，对市场流动性的收缩力度空前强硬，使得证券二级市场有不能承受之重。至此，恒指将持续进入震荡偏弱的状态，且在流动性紧缩和市场预期受挫的双重克制下，市场预期及市场资金均将约束港市的整体上扬，前期投资者试探性介入的二成至三成仓位可趁回调了结，并维持更低试探仓位或空仓以观后变。央行的加息对市场预期打压力度较大，并紊乱了市场节奏，望投资者谨慎。

1. Central bank hit anticipation  HK market overally dragged  

When market widely expected before the central bank would take no more monetary tightening method after the previous raising deposit reserve rate, but last weekend, central bank again raised one-year benchmark interest rates by 0.25 percent, which exceeded market expectations, and is great negative to securities market. So far the central bank has improved the benchmark interest rates twice this year, and reserve-requirement ratio has been raised by six times, liquidity contraction dynamics to market is unprecedented strong, make securities secondary market  cannot bear the heavy. So far, the Hang Seng index will persist weak state with virbration, and be restrained by the liquidity squeeze and frustrated market expectations, market monetary liquidity and market expectaion are to overally constrain Hongkong market’s rise, suggest early tentative 20%-30% positions by investors can be sell over presently, and maintain a lower position or even empty position to observe following market change. The central bank has raised interest rates, and this beyond the market expectation, market to certain extent is in disorder, mention that investors be cautious.

二、早期外围数据偏弱 逊预期呈现悖论

本周早期公布的美国经济数据不甚理想。美国经济咨商局公布的12月消费者信心指数降至52.5点，相较经济学家预计的57.0点有较大差距。同时房地产价格仍处低迷状态，标普公司发布的10月份20个大城市凯斯—希勒房价指数环比跌1.3%，超过之前市场平均预期的下降0.6%，反映房产市场复苏过程仍较困难。尽管国际购物中心协会调查显示上周美国连锁店销售收入同比增长4.8%，数据良好，然而下滑的并低于市场预期的消费者信心指数料将消除该数据带来的利好。美国一家零售方面研究公司昨日报告称，上周美国零售业销售同比下滑4.1%，下滑原因为26和27日的暴风雪天气影响。无论该影响为何原因，错过的销售额度已是非正面因素，及时有可能出现的销售额度延迟因素亦是对市场数据的补救，而非积极因素。虽近日公布的失业救济领取人数、芝加哥采购经理人指数及二手房销售数据优于市场预期，但结合美股在利空数据下的冲高，利好数据下的回调所呈现的悖论，进行一定的因素剔除操作，综合考虑可判断美国近日的微观经济数据整体仍然偏弱。

2. Peripheral data released pale  worse than market expectations

The U.S. economic data previous released was not good. The U.S. economy counselor bureau announced December consumer confidence index dropped to 52.5 points, compared with the economists predicted 57.0 points there is still big gap. Meanwhile real estate price is still pessimistic, October 20 cities Keith - Alan shearer price index released by S&P company fell 1.3 percent more than September, and 0.6 percent more than the average market expectations, reflecting recovery process of the housing market is still in difficulty. Despite international shopping centers association reported in a survey that last week United States chains sales income year-on-year slided down by 4.8 percent, due to bad snow and wind weather on 26^th and 27^th. However, no matter why data slided, missed sales income is not positive factor. After overally considering, it can be judged recent American micro-economic datas are not optimistic.

三、成交持续缩量 信心不振宜减持观望

近阶段内地股市表现依然不及人意，上证12月成交额不足27000亿人民币，相较11月的46415亿人民币成交额缩量明显。同时港市成交持续缩量，市场的上扬必须有成交量配合，该量能一定程度支撑了当前港市整体偏弱震荡的格局。自12月15日以来，港市总成交仅维持2000亿水平，显示于以恒指为标志的23000—23200前期多空主力僵持区间仍有较大的上行阻力，显示市场人气及资金流入速率低迷，同时在恒指前期两次下破黄金分割点位22680点后，市场缩量形势已否定了港市趋势性上扬的可能性，在整体偏弱格局下展开震荡可能较大，故短阶段投资者勿因恒指上落影响心态，同时因短线交易难度增大，建议普通投资者继续持币观望。

3. Less trading volume  appropriate to cut positions when expectation frustrated

During previous days mainland stock market was still weak, only 397.71 billion yuan of trading volume since, compared with previous high volume, trading volume is still small, it displays market popularity and capital inflows rate are both depressing. Meanwhile trading volume of Hongkong market is continous less, sustained rise of market must have volume to cooperate, the low trading volume to some extent supports the Hongkong market is wholly in weak vibrating pattern. Since December 15, trading volume of Hongkong mraket is insufficient, only less than 1900 million hk dollar, showing that during 23,000-23200 of HSI, which is previous appropriat interval between the main buying and selling power, Hongkong market still has pressure to stagely go upwards. The prophase twice-broken golden section point 22680 points of HSI by market with continous less trading volume has possiblly denied stagely going-up pattern of Hongkong market. So in short large investors do not be affected by HSI ups and downs, at the same time because difficulty of short trading increased , suggest ordinary investors continue to observe with money in hand.

四、总量控制效应居首 港市持续受流动遏制

注意到美元人民币汇率再创新低，最低报6.5980，显示中国人民银行超乎市场预期的加息后对国际资本的引致作用。在央行出乎意料的年内加息格局下，热钱一定程度寻求人民币资产保值，并于近日引致港市一度反弹。但考虑中国政府总量控制的力道强劲，预计在市场流动性上能对该部分投机热钱形成对冲，港市趋势性走高的可能性目前来看仍然不大。由于中国政府拥有大量的外汇储备，同时在不断的货币紧缩措施下，市场总体流动性所受的压制将大于热钱带来的补给效应，热钱效应对证券二级市场带来的促进有限，但毕竟会限制市场的整体跌幅。同时COMEX黄金2月期货持续走高显示热钱一定程度向黄金寻求保值，亦对国际资本对港市的冲击形成一定分流。

4. Total amount control effect is stronger  flowing deficiency curbs HK market

Notice dollars RMB exchange rate reaches new low point, which is 6.6137, showing the attracting effect on international capital after people's bank of China raised interest rates, which is beyond market expectations. In the pattern that unexpectedly interest raised by central bank within year 2010，hot money to a certain degree seeks for safty on RMB assets, resulting rebound of the Hongkong market during previous few days. But considering total amount control force by the Chinese government is still strong, it is expected that deficient market liquidity shall constrain hot money effect, stagely going up trend of Hongkong market nowwards seems less possibility. Because Chinese government owns large foreign-exchange reserves, at the same time implement monetary tightening measures, the total market liquidity were suppressed more than hot money supply effect can remedy, hot money effect on promoting the secondary market is limited, but after all will limit the overall decline of the market. Meanwhile COMEX gold February futures continued going up high shows hot money to a certain degree seeks safty to gold, and this has a certain diversion effect to impact on the Hongkong market by international capital flows.

美股在前期消费者信心指数及房产价格指数不及预期下呈现冲高走势，在近日失业救济领取人数及二手房销售数据优于预期情形下呈现回调，欧债危机相关消息近日归于沉寂，欧股呈现高位回调态势，当前外围市场格局微妙，并呈现经济数据及消息面与股市表现相悖格局。同时人民币升值创新高，中国政府货币紧缩措施严厉，上证指数及恒生指数技术形态偏弱，量能明显不足。在此格局下，当前整体港市行情仍然处于稍微偏弱状态，呈现上落乃至宽幅上落料为常态。结合当前的货币政策导向及客观造成的流动性抑制，港市于缩量横盘震荡中一定程度缺乏资金的支撑，在此格局下需以时间积累换取量能积累，短阶形成趋势性上扬行情可能性不大，除非等待市场预期恢复或利好带动形成的放量。在外围利空利好数据参半，未能给予市场明显积极信号情形下，伴随港市缩量成交及技术形态两次下破黄金分割点位，建议普通投资者继续观望，勿以行情上落影响心态而盲目追涨加码。

 三甲金融港股研究员：刘晓杰