1. Financing area and political surfaces reflect hot money retreat:

As to China government raised interest rate and reserve-requirement ratio, issuing central bank paper, hot money is shocked by a certain degree in market of Hong Kong and mailand china. And on G20 summit, national leaders didn’t take value of RMB underestimated as most important, but suggest RMB be estimated by market decision related to compromise exchange, this message is a certain degree of political factors to stand for hot money retreat.

2. Long-term still has a tightening monetary expected:

The central bank of china released financial operation data display of October. In late October, broad money (M2) balance is 69.98 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth is 19.3%, narrow currency (M1) balance is 25.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth is 22.1%, circulation (M0) balance is 4.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth is16.6%. This data display reflet that the current market still has a great fluidity, combined with 8, 9, 10 months respectively 3.6%, 4.4% 3.5%CPI, the inflation date, the possibility central bank of China take further tightening measures on liquidity stants big.

3. Short stage the government shall pay more effort on administrative measures:

At the same time the state council premier Wen Jiabao chaired the standing committee of state council, stressed the need to fully realize the importance and urgency to stable market price , when necessary, shall take temporary intervention measures. In this week dollars goes strong, maybe international hot money backflow from HongKong market to dollars, and it is expected the Chinese government will take further administrative measures to curb domestic prices rather than simply monetary tighten policy in the near days. The four political measures decided on the 17th Chinese committee of state council meeting maybe showed Chinese government’s intentions: short-term pay more effort on administrative measures to solve the facing inflation stations, and take improving low-income people’s living standard at first place.

4. Market display obviously show undersell from institution investors:

ICBC（601398SH）Monday dramatically dragged by 6.84% ,but average rose of financial industries is only 0.45%. From game consideration between The main funds and the average investor, if the Shanghai index rebounds in the near days, maybe institutions shall undersell stocks and cheat average investors into buying.

5. All indicate that ordinary investors have been cheated into buying:

From survey of consumer confidence by chinese national bureau of statistics, 2010 3^rd quarter Chinese consumer confidence index comes down 5 points compared to the second quarter , the survey reported 104 point, which fell back in continuous rise after five quarters.This data reflects signs that consumer demand confidence fell down as consideration to higher inflation. Last weekend number of a-share open account is up to 5454.72 million, creates the historic highs. Always stock market with high account numbers is cloudy skies which reflects stock price in secondary market maybe gradually get lower stagely. Account number come to new high level from behavioral finance explains general investors invest beyond reason, and most general market traders have already been bought stocks at high level.

6. Institution main keep selling stocks to general investors:

Since November 8^th The hang seng index created 24988.57 pot highs, so far it has fell 1662.36 point or 6.68%, and has breaked support line at 24691 point, 24080 point, 23750 point, 23600 point, and today closed quotation at 23214.46 point.Technical level reflets extroadinary profits of institution investors after contionous rise of market, these days institution investors may try to break ordinary investor’s psychological line ,and to create the space and time for selling chips.

Considering the current situation of international capital flows, market temporarily loses direction. Hong Kong stock market faced situations that institutions continue to largely deliver stocks to general investors at high price, and China goverment face pressure that capital flows from stock market to the entity economy. Market expect China goverment shall adopt administrative means in short-term, still long-term shall contionally take money tightening measures to cope with money liquidity. In this condition, must have the obvious government regulation measures released, shall decide the direction of market movements.The current judgment is based on both information and market performance. For the average investor, still suggest light freight space and short-wave operation in the future week, for investors who have no time to focus on secondary market , still suggest empty freight space, waiting for market changes.