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伯克希尔为什么买比亚迪？
(2014-07-06 13:24:05)
文尾为2009年、2010年伯克希尔股东大会上的问答，从中得到的信息：
（1）伯克希尔买比亚迪股票的想法来源于芒格，芒格和科索尔一起陪巴菲特来中国考察比亚迪，说服了巴菲特投资。
（2）芒格认为，比亚迪从电池起步成功了，后来做手机电池又很成功，现在转行至汽车行业，成为能够和中国知名汽车合资企业竞争的汽车公司（当时比亚迪汽车卖的很火，F0-F3），这并不是一个风险投资。王传福带领17000名毕业于知名高校的工程师，电池会在未来有很好的需求，相信比亚迪会取得巨大成功，比亚迪当时的市值为40亿美元，仍然是个小公司，但是他们的野心很大。
（3）另外，芒格认为，如果早个5-10年，伯克希尔不会买比亚迪，因为那时这样的公司还不在他能力圈内，他没有把握说服巴菲特，所以和科索尔一起陪巴菲特来中国考察比亚迪，来“进修”并说服了巴菲特。
个人观点：对投资比亚迪持保留意见，芒格当初对比亚迪的判断可能出现了误差，当年比亚迪的销售确实火了一把，随后出现了大幅降低，根本原因可能是品牌形象比较低端。
从投资至今已经快6年，虽然股价涨了不少，但公司的竞争力并没有显著增加，净利润还下降了，电动车起色也不大，汽车行业目前在景气周期，将来产能过剩也是指日可待，品牌如何提升？利润如何兑现？也许是我看不懂。
只是探讨，请比亚迪粉勿怪勿喷。
$比亚迪(SZ002594)$
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BYD[Buffett’s recent Chinese investment] seems like a speculative or venture capital investment, instead of a “value” investment. Could Buffett explain?
Buffett:All investments are “value” investments. What other kind can there be? You always expect to get more in the future [for what you’re investing today].
Munger:BYD is not some early-stage venture capital company. The founder is around 43 years old. They’re a main manufacturer of rechargeable lithium batteries, from a standing start. Then they became big in cell phone components, with a huge position. They recently entered the auto industry, and from zero, rapidly made the best-selling [Chinese-manufactured] car model in China, against Chinese joint ventures with leading manufacturers. This is not unproven. It’s not speculative. It’s a damn miracle. They hired 17,000 engineering graduates at the top of their classes. It’s a remarkable aggregation of talent. Chinese people succeed mightily. Batteries are totally needed in the future of the world. I don’t think Warren and I have gone crazy. They make every part in the car, except [possibly] the windshield and the tires. I regard it as a privilege for Berkshire to be associated with BYD. I will be amazed if great things don’t happen. I wouldn’t bet against 17,000 Chinese engineers led by Wang Chuan-Fu. BYD is a $4 billion company—a small company, but their ambition is large.
Buffett:BYD was Charlie’s [idea], the Irish banks were mine.
Source:BRK Annual Meeting 2009 Bruni NotesURL:Time: 2009
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[Q- BYD. How do you analyze a technology company like this when for so many years you shied away from investing in tech companies?]
Buffett:Deferred to Charlie
Munger:BYD is an interesting example because 5-10 yrs earlier BRK would not have made the investment. The old men are continuing to learn. Berkshire would have lower potential if we had stayed the way we were. I wasn’t sure I could get Warren to do this. Dave Sokol was inveigled to go to China and the both of us helped the Chairman with the ‘learning’ process.
Source:BRK Annual Meeting 2010 Boodell NotesURL:Time: 2010
（1）伯克希尔买比亚迪股票的想法来源于芒格，芒格和科索尔一起陪巴菲特来中国考察比亚迪，说服了巴菲特投资。
（2）芒格认为，比亚迪从电池起步成功了，后来做手机电池又很成功，现在转行至汽车行业，成为能够和中国知名汽车合资企业竞争的汽车公司（当时比亚迪汽车卖的很火，F0-F3），这并不是一个风险投资。王传福带领17000名毕业于知名高校的工程师，电池会在未来有很好的需求，相信比亚迪会取得巨大成功，比亚迪当时的市值为40亿美元，仍然是个小公司，但是他们的野心很大。
（3）另外，芒格认为，如果早个5-10年，伯克希尔不会买比亚迪，因为那时这样的公司还不在他能力圈内，他没有把握说服巴菲特，所以和科索尔一起陪巴菲特来中国考察比亚迪，来“进修”并说服了巴菲特。
个人观点：对投资比亚迪持保留意见，芒格当初对比亚迪的判断可能出现了误差，当年比亚迪的销售确实火了一把，随后出现了大幅降低，根本原因可能是品牌形象比较低端。
从投资至今已经快6年，虽然股价涨了不少，但公司的竞争力并没有显著增加，净利润还下降了，电动车起色也不大，汽车行业目前在景气周期，将来产能过剩也是指日可待，品牌如何提升？利润如何兑现？也许是我看不懂。
只是探讨，请比亚迪粉勿怪勿喷。
$比亚迪(SZ002594)$
-----------------------------------------------
BYD
Buffett:
Munger:
Buffett:
Source:
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[Q
Buffett:
Munger:
Source:
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