加载中…Crisis of trust hampers advance of Sino-Japanese relationship
(2012-07-27 16:18:34)
标签：
杂谈 |
There
is currently an unprecedented confrontation between China and Japan
over the Diaoyu Islands dispute. The question of whether war is
brewing is worrying people in both countries
again.
According to a joint survey by Genron NPO, a Japanese think tank, and China Daily, those who have a bad feeling toward China in Japan have risen to 84.3 percent. It is foreseeable that with an increasing imbalance of power, the Sino-Japanese relationship will unlikely achieve the honeymoon period seen in the 1980s, but will gradually step into a stage of full confrontation.
If that happens, nationalism will trigger enmity in both countries, which will overwhelm the rationality of making decisions aimed at overall strategic interests and core interests. The two will both pay a high price for a fruitless result. But before such an unfavorable endgame, China and Japan will continue trading accusations with each other.
Both the Chinese and Japanese people have no interest in considering the position of the other side over the Diaoyu Islands dispute, which increasingly drives the situation toward confrontation. This clash risks being worsened, but at the same time, no Japanese denies the importance of economic cooperation with China.
China is Japan's biggest trading partner and attracts the most direct investment by Japanese enterprises. China is Japan's most important "factory" as well as Japan's biggest market. Besides, the two are also fatally pivotal to each other's security.
What is stopping the two from benefiting from reconciliation and peace? As far as I am concerned, even though almost 40 years has passed since the two normalized the diplomatic relationship, a Sino-Japanese friendship has not been established yet. This is because there was no solid foundation from the very beginning.
Looking back, the tenure of Junichiro Koizumi as prime minister was a turning point for Sino-Japanese relations. Koizumi was accused of being part of an "anti-China right-wing force" for visiting the Yasukuni Shrine. Compared with the vague pronunciations of other politicians, Koizumi had clear direction. His distinctive leadership style and aggressive statecraft were the reasons for his long stint as leader.
Before Koizumi, most of the time China and Japan exercised restraint in spite of their disputes. Both sides tried to maintain "friendship" by avoiding talking about sensitive topics, which softened the issues the two sides wanted to discuss and reduced their impact.
In reality, China and Japan haven't exchanged frank views in spite of having differing opinions. This doomed them both to seeing common frictions erupt.
For a long time, the Sino-Japanese "friendship" was mainly based on considerations of interest instead of emotional integration.
China once took Japan as a teacher when the two countries resumed normal contacts. The Chinese reform and opening-up period was greatly affected by Japanese experiences. Japan hoped to heal China's wounds of war by officially helping the country's development.
Therefore, China and Japan had a honeymoon period during the 1980s. A survey of public opinion showed that 78.6 percent of Japanese people regarded China as a friendly nation in 1980. China put Japan's responsibility for the war aside at the time. Japanese movies, television series and music became very popular in China.
Sadly, just as the foundation of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Japan was very weak, the honeymoon period could not stand the test of history.
With the shift in the relative strength of China and Japan, the social foundation of Sino-Japanese friendship is fraying at the edges. On the issues of war history and territorial dispute, China has more sustaining power to negotiate with Japan. China even has the capability to impose economic sanctions against Japan.
The focal point of conflicts between China and Japan revolve around national interests. Existing international law doesn't have clear rules for resolving these disputes. The final decision of ownership often depends on comparing parties' overall national strength.
However, in modern international society, comprehensive national strength cannot always solve problems.
Throughout history, we have never seen a country expand its territory while being impoverished and weak. On the other hand, loss of territory seldom happens for countries with considerable national strength. It will be difficult for China and Japan to keep their cool if they insist on "national strength first" and resort to arms.
In this sense, if no better solution arises, two countries should still follow the principle of shelving differences and seeking joint development. The Japanese plan of buying disputed islands may obtain some immediate interests. However, in the long term, it is uncertain whether it will wield gains or losses.
Global Times | 2012-7-22 Japan
chief correspondent with Sina Finance
According to a joint survey by Genron NPO, a Japanese think tank, and China Daily, those who have a bad feeling toward China in Japan have risen to 84.3 percent. It is foreseeable that with an increasing imbalance of power, the Sino-Japanese relationship will unlikely achieve the honeymoon period seen in the 1980s, but will gradually step into a stage of full confrontation.
If that happens, nationalism will trigger enmity in both countries, which will overwhelm the rationality of making decisions aimed at overall strategic interests and core interests. The two will both pay a high price for a fruitless result. But before such an unfavorable endgame, China and Japan will continue trading accusations with each other.
Both the Chinese and Japanese people have no interest in considering the position of the other side over the Diaoyu Islands dispute, which increasingly drives the situation toward confrontation. This clash risks being worsened, but at the same time, no Japanese denies the importance of economic cooperation with China.
China is Japan's biggest trading partner and attracts the most direct investment by Japanese enterprises. China is Japan's most important "factory" as well as Japan's biggest market. Besides, the two are also fatally pivotal to each other's security.
What is stopping the two from benefiting from reconciliation and peace? As far as I am concerned, even though almost 40 years has passed since the two normalized the diplomatic relationship, a Sino-Japanese friendship has not been established yet. This is because there was no solid foundation from the very beginning.
Looking back, the tenure of Junichiro Koizumi as prime minister was a turning point for Sino-Japanese relations. Koizumi was accused of being part of an "anti-China right-wing force" for visiting the Yasukuni Shrine. Compared with the vague pronunciations of other politicians, Koizumi had clear direction. His distinctive leadership style and aggressive statecraft were the reasons for his long stint as leader.
Before Koizumi, most of the time China and Japan exercised restraint in spite of their disputes. Both sides tried to maintain "friendship" by avoiding talking about sensitive topics, which softened the issues the two sides wanted to discuss and reduced their impact.
In reality, China and Japan haven't exchanged frank views in spite of having differing opinions. This doomed them both to seeing common frictions erupt.
For a long time, the Sino-Japanese "friendship" was mainly based on considerations of interest instead of emotional integration.
China once took Japan as a teacher when the two countries resumed normal contacts. The Chinese reform and opening-up period was greatly affected by Japanese experiences. Japan hoped to heal China's wounds of war by officially helping the country's development.
Therefore, China and Japan had a honeymoon period during the 1980s. A survey of public opinion showed that 78.6 percent of Japanese people regarded China as a friendly nation in 1980. China put Japan's responsibility for the war aside at the time. Japanese movies, television series and music became very popular in China.
Sadly, just as the foundation of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Japan was very weak, the honeymoon period could not stand the test of history.
With the shift in the relative strength of China and Japan, the social foundation of Sino-Japanese friendship is fraying at the edges. On the issues of war history and territorial dispute, China has more sustaining power to negotiate with Japan. China even has the capability to impose economic sanctions against Japan.
The focal point of conflicts between China and Japan revolve around national interests. Existing international law doesn't have clear rules for resolving these disputes. The final decision of ownership often depends on comparing parties' overall national strength.
However, in modern international society, comprehensive national strength cannot always solve problems.
Throughout history, we have never seen a country expand its territory while being impoverished and weak. On the other hand, loss of territory seldom happens for countries with considerable national strength. It will be difficult for China and Japan to keep their cool if they insist on "national strength first" and resort to arms.
In this sense, if no better solution arises, two countries should still follow the principle of shelving differences and seeking joint development. The Japanese plan of buying disputed islands may obtain some immediate interests. However, in the long term, it is uncertain whether it will wield gains or losses.
Global Times | 2012-7-22
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