看来全球著名的债券大王的信念是如此坚定，其做空国债的仓位到达了100亿美元。其现金仓位达到历史高位891亿美元。很多财经分析人或者基金经理甚至普通投资人都对Bill Gross的行为嗤之以鼻。Bill Gross实际上把其债券基金变成了现金基金，投资人还得付管理费用。Bill Gross如此大的赌注要么成就其辉煌（债券市场如其所料大跌），要么让这个安联集团（Allianz）的子公司沉没。当然，别指望美国国债马上下跌。指挥大型集团军进入真正战斗是要时间的。

附：PIMCO资产配置

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So Much For Pimco Buying Bonds: Duration Weighted Treasury Exposure Hits Whopping -23% Short, Cash Surges To Unprecedented $89 Billion

So much for all the conspiracy theories that Bill Gross was capitulating in his short position against US debt even as he continued to bash US fiscal and monetary policy. According to just released April data for the flagship Pimco $240 billion Total Return Fund (which saw a $4.2 billion increase in AUM in the month), Bill Gross actually added to his short position against US government debt, bringing total market value exposure to 4% of AUM or ($10) billion. More amazing is that on a Duration Weighted Exposure basis, the firm's Treasury short is 23%, read that again, 23%! So much for that change in outlook. Additionally, Gross also sold another $8.3 billion in mortgage securities, bringing the April total to a nominal $57.8 billion. Spring cleaning at casa de Bill continued across all fixed corporate income as well, dropping the firm's exposure to IG by $1.6 billion and to HY by $2.1 billion. The only two securities which saw a token increase was in Non-US developed markets and Emerging Markets, to $14.4 billion and $26.5 billion, respectively. Yet the biggest shocker of all, is that Gross has now brought his cash position to an all time unprecedented high of $89.1 billion! That's right, PIMCO is charging a substantial asset management fee when 37% of all assets are in cash. One would think the mattress would cost far less. Either Gross is expecting a huge collapse in the bond market (so contrary to prevailing though), or this could well be the bet that buries the Allianz subsidiary.

美国的国债上限很快达到，但国会2党还在讨价还价。共和党领袖众议院发言人John Boehner呼吁国会财政赤字的消减量高于国债上限的提高量，也就是说没有几万亿美元的财政赤字消减，就不会同意提高国债上限。共和党代表华尔街的利益，也就是说华尔街是希望大幅降低赤字的。有3种结果：（1）更符合共和党的计划，即大幅降低赤字，包括对医保动大刀；（2）更符合民主党的计划，即奥巴马提出的计划，是比较温和的；（3）一拖再拖悬而未决。第三种是灾难性的。但不管结果怎样，美国财政部都要继续发行大量国债。而这些新发行的国债谁来购买，这才是问题。

**最新消息是Jim Rogers也开始唱空美国国债了，因为其预期QE2的结束将给国债带来巨大压力。

Reuters reports that "Influential investment veteran Jim Rogers said on Tuesday he plans to short U.S. Treasuries as soon as this afternoon as he expects the end of quantitative easing to pressure government bonds." Odd. Where have we written/heard that before. But of course, who listens to Bill Gross (the largest bond manager in the world) and Jim Rogers (the co-founder of Quantum) - surely they are no-nothing fools (who just happen to agree with our initial assessment that in the absence of QE2 all bets will be off). Reuters adds: "Rogers said he expects the U.S. dollar to rally when the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary measure ends in June. "I'm not short bonds yet but I plan to short bonds - maybe this afternoon if I get around to it," Rogers told Reuters Insider television."

还有，Solos1992年进攻英格兰银行的统帅，投资界传奇Stanley Druckenmiller也加入Bill Gross的行列。

We hadn't heard much from legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller since last August when he decided to shut down his Duquesne Capital hedge fund. Until today. In a must read interview, the man who took on the Bank of England in 1992 and won, says that he join the camp of Bill Gross et al, making it all too clear that all the recent fearmongering about the lack of a debt ceiling hike by the likes of Tim Geithner, Ben Bernanke and, of course, all of Wall Street, is misplaced, and that the real threat to the country is the continuation of the current profligate pathway of endless spending. From the WSJ: "Mr. Druckenmiller had already recognized that the government had embarked on a long-term march to financial ruin. So he publicly opposed the hysterical warnings from financial eminences, similar to those we hear today. He recalls that then-Secretary of the Treasury Robert Rubin warned that if the political stand-off forced the government to delay a debt payment, the Treasury bond market would be impaired for 20 years. "Excuse me? Russia had a real default and two or three years later they had all-time low interest rates," says Mr. Druckenmiller. In the future, he says, "People aren't going to wonder whether 20 years ago we delayed an interest payment for six days. They're going to wonder whether we got our house in order." Which begs the question: if interest rates are so low today, is the market not appreciating the current path of "financial ruin"? And here is where Druckenmiller joins the Grosses and the Granthams of the world. Asked if the future is not so bad judging by today's low bond rates he says, "Complete nonsense. It's not a free market. It's not a clean market." The Federal Reserve is doing much of the buying of Treasury bonds lately through its "quantitative easing" (QE) program, he points out. "The market isn't saying anything about the future. It's saying there's a phony buyer of $19 billion of Treasurys a week." Of course, there is another name for this type of arrangement and so far only Bill Gross has used it: Ponzi Scheme.

【更新】Bill Gross解释其不是在做空美国国债，而是美国政府相关债务。但其实效果是一样的。

In truth, PIMCO wasn’t ever short US Treasury securities. PIMCO was, however, short debt issues that are US government-related. The column in the SEC filing to which this short-position is attributed can include anything from T-bills and bonds to agencies (MBS debt, mostly), interest rate swaps, Treasury futures, and FDIC-insured debt, since the FDIC is a member of the US government.

The reality of the situation is that for Gross to go short US debt in any fashion is the equivalent of going short US Treasuries, just as it is the equivalent of shorting Agency debt, Treasury futures, interest rate swaps, and a myriad of other investments that are all backed by the US Government.

Gross is short the US Government’s debt, regardless of whether or not it’s US Treasuries, FDIC-insured short-term credit facilities, or interest rate swaps which would leave PIMCO rolling in paper money should US Treasuries fall after the Fed ceases to monetize the debt.

In effect, what Gross just said could be explained in other words as, “I didn’t short Treasuries; I just shorted other US Debt that has a different name.” 

在商品市场，石油如预料那样强劲反弹，JP Morgan已经上调原油到$130。唯一的基本面的区别是利比亚局势以及伊拉克。当然，今后也许是其他地区或者国家来推动石油了。白银也大幅反弹，但不要期望其以下跌的速度来反弹了。所有的资本市场，包括货币市场，估计半年内形势会明朗化，或者必见分晓。目前美元空仓量以及欧元多仓量都到达了惊人的高度。资料显示进入五月来，美元的空仓到达了20万份合约，欧元的多仓到达了几乎10万份合约，这都是4年来的高位。如果美元反转，轧空的出现将会让美元更快上涨。当然，预测美元真正反转还有一段时间。