美国很可能对其跨国公司在国外约1万亿美金的利润汇回美国在特定的时间窗口大幅减免税负（目前的观点是从正常的35%减到5%左右）。从类似事情的历史来看，影响最大的是美元或者美元指数，也就是这种大规模的美元回家必然会让美元指数上涨。暂时还没数据表明哪个国家影响最大，但中国应该还是影响不小的，因为这是直接性的中国基础货币的减少。

There's been talk escalating this week in Washington about offering U.S.-based multinational companies a tax break to bring home their earnings from foreign subsidiaries.

It's well known that the U.S. is sitting in an unsustainable fiscal situation with a record budget deficit and record debt levels. That's put the country in a vulnerable position, well in the path of a spreading global sovereign debt crisis.

All the while, it's estimated that U.S.-based companies are sitting on $1 trillion worth of foreign earned profits offshore — escaping the tax man.

At the current top corporate tax rate of 35 percent in the U.S., that's a sizable amount of tax revenue that's going unclaimed.

The question is: Will the U.S. Treasury ever get their hands on that money?

That's Where the Tax Holiday
Proposal Comes In ...

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor is speaking up for legislation that would allow multinational corporations a one-time tax break to bring earnings from foreign subsidiaries back to the U.S.

The incentive would likely include slashing the tax rate from 35 percent to 5 percent for earnings repatriated in a specified time frame.

In other words, the assumption is that 5 percent of something is better than 35 percent of nothing.

And the theory is that the repatriation of this overseas money would slightly reduce the budget deficit. Plus it could put companies in a better position to invest, expand and add jobs, thereby improving GDP growth.

The White House, however, doesn't seem interested in playing along so far. This week Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said, "We are not going to look at a repatriation holiday outside the context of comprehensive reform."

The government's fear: They'll lose negotiating leverage with the business community for broader corporate tax reform — their effort to close loopholes that are allowing big corporations to skirt taxes altogether.

But given the tenuous economic environment and global pressures for credible plans to deal with debt and deficits, this corporate tax break could very well take hold.

If It Does Pass, How Will
It Influence the Markets?

For that answer, let's take a look back at 2005 when nearly $300 billion came home after the Homeland Investment Act (HIA) of 2004 was passed. Similarly, the HIA of 2004 allowed U.S. companies to repatriate earnings at a 5.25 percent tax rate, as opposed to the prevailing top corporate tax rate of 35 percent.

Studies show, however, that the desired influence on the economy never transpired. Companies didn't use the money to add to their workforce and make investments. Rather, they paid the lion's share out to shareholders.

For the U.S. stock market the effect seemed fairly muted. Stocks in 2005 were choppy, but finished in positive territory for the year, up just 3 percent.

Yet there was one area of the financial markets where the influence was clear: Currencies ... namely the dollar.

Here's a chart of the dollar index ...

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You can see the dollar made a steady climb throughout 2005. In fact, the first trading day of 2005 marked the low for the year. That $300 billion worth of foreign currency converted into U.S. dollars ultimately sent the dollar up 14 percent in 11 months.

So, if you have any investments exposed to foreign currency fluctuations, be sure to keep an eye on these developments in Washington. It could prove quite meaningful for the dollar.