老调重弹，日元在各方面看来都会走贬值的路子，只是时间问题。日债（GDP占比是雄冠全球）虽然基本都是内部消化，相等于发债给自己国民，但人口结构因素的中短期不可抗拒的影响一定会让日元贬值。人口结构因素的巨大变化加上日本的长期超低利率已经让日本的储蓄率甚至低于美国。这些其实意味着，日本今后会寻求国际资金去购买其国债，而且到时日本的长期利率很可能成倍的涨（因为现在就1%左右）。总之，虽然日本有很多很好的，竞争力很强的国际性公司，日本经济的内在问题特别是债务问题也同样太大了。从根本来讲，日本的债务问题跟欧元区的债务问题具有共同点，也有区别。欧元区国家，如果不是因为欧元这个单一货币的束缚的话，走冰岛的债务解决之路是行得通的；如果日元大幅贬值，其国民大量抛售日债而购买美元；同时对周边不贬值的国家将造成巨大的压力，很可能的结果是都跟着贬值。

在我们为过年忙着购买年货之际，中东的穆斯林国家也都在街头忙着。这是人口结构因素的不可抗拒力量与经济情况的叠加。埃及的人口年龄中值才24，就是说一半的人口在24岁以下。穆斯林国家的人口都偏向年轻化。年轻人的好斗性，加上经济的不乐观，失业率高，通货膨胀严重，这些人不可能成天呆在电脑面前，所以很可能选择上街。通货膨胀直接或者间接，有意或者无意的成为了美国的武器。埃及很可能步突尼斯后尘，因为现在美国都在倒向街头人民了。如果这样，那么下一个呢，或者会有下一个吗？

Why Japan Needs a Weaker Yen

Standard & Poor's downgraded Japan's sovereign debt rating this week. It was the first cut in Japan's rating in nine years. Japan now joins Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain — all of which have been downgraded in the past twelve months; hardly the kind of company a country wants to keep.

I've said many times that in a world mired in debt and deficits, it's only a matter of time until Japan has its turn under the spotlight of global scrutiny. And with this downgrade, it could be sooner rather than later.

Of course, there's been no shortage of scrutiny toward the U.S. fiscal situation, given the massive policy responses to the financial and economic crisis. There's been speculation of imminent bond market collapse, hyperinflation and an exit of the dollar — so far, none of it has happened.

In Europe, however, the chatter has already turned into crisis, as bond market vigilantes have expressed their view on the unsustainable sovereign debt situation in Europe through a mass exodus. Now the European Central Bank and the European Financial Stability Fund has become the lender of last resort to keep the ailing euro-zone members breathing.

But Japan could make the sovereign debt crisis in Europe look like the opening act ...

Japan's massive debt load is well known. As shown in the chart below it's expected to reach twice the size of its economy for the second year running — double what the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) considers a frightening level of government debt.

http://s13/middle/69e715d2g9b19c15b69ec&690Japan Needs a Weaker Yen" TITLE="Why Japan Needs a Weaker Yen" />

That's far and away the largest debt load of any economy in the world, except Zimbabwe. And it's only expected to get worse. In fact, according to the International Monetary Fund, Japan's government debt will reach a whopping 246 percent in 2014.

But any questions about the sustainability of Japan's debt situation, regardless of how bloated it is, always tend to be dismissed with this explanation: Japan can continue to bury itself in debt because the Japanese citizens and private sector hold the lion's share of Japanese government debt ... i.e. they fund themselves.

To me, it looks highly unlikely that this dynamic can continue, based on three fundamental hurdles in Japan ...

Fundamental Hurdle #1 —
Declining Savings Rate

Japan has historically been a nation of savers. The savings rate in the 80s and early 90s had been steadily over 10 percent, higher than any other developed country. That has allowed the Japanese government to sell nearly all of its bonds to its citizens and institutions ... to the tune of 94 percent of total outstanding public debt.

But since Japan's economy went into stagnation in the 90s and given that interest rates for 15 years have hovered around zero, the savings attitudes in Japan have shifted. In fact, the savings rate is now lower than in the U.S. — a nation considered grossly addicted to spending, not saving.

Here's the chart on personal savings in Japan and the U.S. ...

http://s12/middle/69e715d2g9b19c6fe4bab&690Japan Needs a Weaker Yen" TITLE="Why Japan Needs a Weaker Yen" />

Now, look at the next chart, and you'll see ...

Fundamental Problem #2 —
Declining Population

While savings rates have been declining in Japan, so has its population, putting more pressure on the absolute quantity of savings. And it's expected to get worse. The projection for Japan's population shows a big fall over the coming decades due to its ageing demographic.

http://s11/middle/69e715d2g9b19d9a76b6a&690Japan Needs a Weaker Yen" TITLE="Why Japan Needs a Weaker Yen" />

And finally there's ...

Fundamental Problem #3 —
Non-Competitive Interest Rates

With debt expected to keep growing and revenues and savings expected to decline, Japan will have to turn to the international markets to find buyers of its debt to keep its economy breathing.

But there's a problem with that scenario: Japan's interest rates don't remotely match the risk!

Japan's 10-year debt pays just 1.2 percent. Apparently that's enough for loyal Japanese investors. But that won't cut it for attracting international capital. Debt in other competitive advanced economies, like Europe and the U.S. are nearly three times that rate right now.

What's the investment play here? I think we'll see a significant fall in the Japanese yen.

A weaker yen may not be the solution, but it's certainly the clearest move Japan can make toward managing this crisis.

The easiest way to participate in a falling yen is through the ProShares UltraShort Yen ETF (symbol YCS). This ETF is designed to gain 2 percent for every 1 percent fall in the value of the Japanese/U.S. dollar exchange rate.