近期欧元的走势似乎有些出乎关注美联储QE2人士的意料。照理说美联储将放出大量洪水般的美元，欧元应该走强才对。即使有些对美元有信心的人也认为美元将有最后一跌。然而最近几天美元却有点反弹的味道，在周线K线图上并没有有效跌破下支撑。

问题的关键就是爱尔兰，或者欧洲本身的问题。经济学家Morgan Kelly对爱尔兰的问题评述比较多，总之就是爱尔兰的经济现状糟糕，国债狂跌，收益率猛升，而且银行业问题严重，房地产抵押贷款问题真赶美国次贷危机前的水平。其实背后的问题是爱尔兰是欧洲的一个制造业基地，经济靠出口，本身没有多大的消费能力。在全球经济扩张期自然存在信用扩张的一个过程，但现在欧洲的紧缩政策对于爱尔兰这样的制造业基础国家是一个及其负面的影响。这是一个目前或者近期没有答案的问题，所以很可能欧元不会再往上冲了，但是可能在1.4附近折腾一段时间。要知道欧洲银行业的内在关联性相当强，互相持有大量资产。德国总理默克尔前段时间对欧元区内危机国家（主要是笨猪五国PIIGS）的态度也很可能说明德国（银行业）已经做好对冲了，不怕有不自律的欧元国家债务违约。这个是不是刘军洛所讲的有国家在欧洲发扬雷锋精神而给了德国这样的对冲机会呢？况且欧元的贬值对德国这样的出口大国来讲是正中下怀的。

如果欧元上升空间相当有限，那么国际资本会大规模的去哪里？一个去处是新兴市场国家，比如中国，巴西等等。一个是商品市场。大多数商品期货价格已经高如云端，只有石油才刚刚启动。而石油如果真正开始牛市，那么发达国家的通货膨胀会相当明显，（而且冬天也是用油高峰）。所以，简而言之，石油很可能是一个刺破目前各种泡沫的利剑。

附1：爱尔兰的国债收益率到了7.9%，接近8%（欧盟救助基金的成本）这个关键点。

Irish Yields Jump Again, And Are Inching Closer To A Crucial Threshold

http://s13/middle/69e715d2g7542e2782d6c&690

It's getting close to 7.9%, and therefore close to that crucial threshold 8%, which is the cost that funding from the EU's stability fund would probably be.

附2： Greek Finance Minister: Please Don't Insult Our Banking System By Comparing It To Ireland

希腊财长：别拿我们的银行系统跟爱尔兰相比，那是对我们的侮辱

You know things are bad for Ireland when even Greece is trying to distance itself from the comparison.

Finance Minister Giorgios Papaconstantinou via iMarketNews:

"Greece is not Ireland, we don't have a banking system ahead of itself, we have a credibility problem with sovereign that became a funding problem in international markets for our banking system".

In a speech at the London School of Economics, the minister warned that Eurostat's estimate for the budget deficit of Greece in 2009 would be "substantially" higher compared with that already announced.

Papaconstantinou said that Greece would end this year with the budget deficit 5.5% percentage points lower than it started but that the country had only taken the "first steps on a long and difficult road".

"Where are we at? Well, we're going to close the year having in fact closed the deficit by at least five and a half percentage points, maybe more".

Greece is feeling confident after the ruling government avoided a snap election and appears to have political support to continue with austerity measures.

附3：Here's The Key, Devastating Stat On Ireland's Brewing Underwater Housing Crisis

Thanks to economist Morgan Kelly's devastating Irish Times piece, the topic du jour in Europe is underwater mortgages in Ireland.

To get a more detailed grip on this issue, go read Negative Equity in the Irish Housing Market, a paper by economist David Duffy.

A few charts really highlight the problem: First the estimate for the percentage of mortgage-holders with underwater homes:

For what it's worth, in the US, the equivalent number is in the mid-20s, so the problem is worse in Ireland.
http://s10/middle/69e715d2g949f4cbfb539&690
Another worrisome thing for the Irish housing market is this, the peak years for no-down payment loans. By 2007, these numbers were already falling for the US, suggesting the Irish bust is still working through issues the US has dealt with awhile go:
http://s14/middle/69e715d2g949f4ea4c04d&690
There's lots more interesting stuff in the paper, which you can download here.