前些时间投资钾肥大赚。年初发表过对中国的悲观观点：（没有什么新的观点，但倒数第四条值得注意，就是说中国是世界上最大的债权国同时又是多年的贸易顺差，而这点在历史上只有2个国家达到过，1920年代的美国和1980年代的日本。仅仅具有统计意义吗？）

Here Are Four Reasons China Will Start Sucking Wind  (Feb. 12, 2010)

People are way too psyched about China, says Hugh Hendry.

In a piece he wrote for the Telegraph, the hedge fund manager admits that China has been growing like crazy.

• China's conomic growth has averaged 9% a year over the past 10 years, compared with 1.9% for the British economy.
• Last year, despite the credit crunch, China posted a remarkable growth rate of 10.7% compared with a British contraction of 3.2%

But here's why China is not that great, according to Hendry:

• China, now the world's biggest creditor, is also running persistent trade surpluses. That's only happened twice before: with the US economy in the 1920s and with the Japanese economy in the 1980s.
• Unlike in most countries, China's share of consumption within its economy has fallen relentlessly, reaching 35% of GDP in 2008.
• Foreign demand for its exports dropped. Now China relies on a massive surge in domestic bank lending to fuel its growth rate.
• China's state planners have favored investment over consumption. China's investment spending has tripled since 2001. Domestic consumption never grows fast enough to absorb the supply, and Chinese profitability is already low.

最近，他的观点：(避开黄金以及钾肥，这些动力来源是高通胀期望，而投资国债，因为其相信坏的情形就要发生。至于什么坏的情形，并未详述，但无外乎世界经济的再次衰退。）

Hugh Hendry: Bad Things Are Going To Happen   (Aug. 30, 2010)

..............

For his current investments, he is taking a typically contrarian view. He is resisting the rush to commodities such as gold - and potash - which are appealing to investors driven by fears of hyper inflation. He's investing in government bonds - not because he believes government will pay back record levels of debt, but because the prevailing sentiment is against them.

"I expect bad things are going to happen - further bad things. I think the most productive use for speculators today is to conceive of what are the worst possible economic outcomes."