记录：标普500估值与止盈测试（重发），2015年8月25日星期二

【“贵出如粪土”】 https://xueqiu.com/1287305957/101202918美港资本陈龙：回复@unite_zhao: 第一是真正懂企业的价值。第二估值合理以上就要考虑分批卖，千万不要管别人怎么看。第三记住商圣陶朱公名言“贵出如粪土”，尤其是粪土、粪土、粪土。从纯投资的角度，任何估值高的东西都是粪土，沾在手上你愿意？而大多数人做不到，越涨越开心，把粪土当成了珍珠。其实，这需要修炼。//@unite_zhao:回复@美港资本陈龙:陈生好 访谈页面没找到哈在此 请教您：如何卖出股票呐？有什么方法可以分享？我每次都很失败

2018年01月26日，标普500指数创历史最高2872点。

随后在加息预期下暴跌，2018年02月08日，标普500收盘2581点，比较最高点跌幅10%，跌破10%止盈位。下面将是什么状况？不知道。

按模拟测试：2015年8月24日/星期一，标普500指数/SPX，收盘1893.21点，就止盈卖出啦。需要耐心等待2年4个月，天天看着标普500创新高，需要修炼。。。

记录标普500指数2872点的历史时刻：

S&P 500 Sales Growth Rate by Quarter = 5.68%

S&P 500 Earnings Growth Rate by Quarter = 20.19%

S&P 500 ROE =13%

S&P 500 PE Ratio by Year =25.06

Shiller PE Ratio by Month = 34.08

S&P 500 Price to Book Value by Quarter =3.23

S&P 500 Price to Sales Ratio by Quarter = 2.23

S&P 500 Dividend Yield by Month = 1.90%

Buffett Valuation Indicator The current reading is 138.6%, up from 132.2% the previous quarter and an interim high.

the Wilshire 5000 Full Cap Price Index divided by GDP.= 137%

Market Cap to GDP: An Updated Look at theBuffett Valuation IndicatorFebruary 5, 2018by Jill Mislinskiof Advisor PerspectivesNote: This update incorporates the latest monthly close and the GDP Q4 Advance Estimate data.

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原帖被误删，重发：我是一个小学生，卖在半山腰上是常态，要对自己有清楚的认识。

我兴许，能赚到标普500指数：

从：狗头金（900点/2009年）

到：历史估值上限（1920点/2015年）

收益：7年/2.1倍，年化收益11%。（倘若以700点计算，7年/2.7倍，年化16%。）

但是，根本没有能力赚到标普500指数：

从：历史估值上限（1920点/2015年）

到：市场疯狂（倘若指数再翻倍，概约4000点，3年翻倍，年化24%。）

沪深300/H股ETF，同样如此。

2015年8月24日/星期一，标普500指数/SPX，收盘1893.21点，-77.68点/-3.94%，PE(TTM)=20.8，PB(LF)=2.83。（数据来源：WIND）

SPX已达到历史估值上限，进入止盈区间，收盘价跌破止盈位（2134×0.9=1920点），执行卖出。必须说明的是，SPX 1893点之上涨收益是击鼓传花的游戏，不是我能赚到的.

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2018年1月12日，标普500指数2700点，比较止盈位+40%，概约2.5年。

http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_67c6a6350102ww9r.html

人民日报：美股，火爆背后有风险（经济透视），2018年1月11日星期四。

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记录：标普500估值与止盈测试，2015年8月25日星期二。
2015年8月24日/星期一，标普500指数/SPX，收盘1893.21点，-77.68点/-3.94%，PE(TTM)=20.8，PB(LF)=2.83。（数据来源：WIND）
2009年3月6日，SPX最低点666.78点。
2015年5月19日，SPX最高点2134.72点。
6年/3.2倍，年化复合收益概约21.5%。
买/卖都在底/顶，是上帝之为，但听巴神的，亦有不错的收益。
SPX已达到历史估值上限，进入止盈区间，收盘价跌破止盈位（2134×0.9=1920点），执行卖出。必须说明的是，SPX 1893点之上涨收益是击鼓传花的游戏，不是我能赚到的。
为测试这个方法，记录如下。
The Ratio of Total Market Cap to US GDP（注：显著高估）
2015年4月概约124%，8月末概约118%。

http://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php
As of today, the Total Market Index is at $ 20770.3 billion, which is about 117.3% of the last reported GDP. The US stock market is positioned for an average annualized return of -1.1%, estimated from the historical valuations of the stock market. This includes the returns from the dividends, currently yielding at 0%.
As pointed by Warren Buffett, the percentage of total market cap (TMC) relative to the US GNP is “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”
Over the long term, the returns from stock market are determined by these factors:
1. Interest rate
Interest rates “act on financial valuations the way gravity acts on matter: The higher the rate, the greater the downward pull. That's because the rates of return that investors need from any kind of investment are directly tied to the risk-free rate that they can earn from government securities. So if the government rate rises, the prices of all other investments must adjust downward, to a level that brings their expected rates of return into line. Conversely, if government interest rates fall, the move pushes the prices of all other investments upward.”—Warren Buffett
2. Long Term Growth of Corporate Profitability
Over the long term, corporate profitability reverts to its long term-trend, which is around 6%. During recessions, corporate profit margins shrink, and during economic growth periods, corporate profit margins expand. However, long-term growth of corporate profitability is close to long-term economic growth. The size of the US economy is measured by Gross National Product (GNP). Although GNP is different from GDP (gross domestic product), the two numbers have always been within 1% of each other. For the purpose of calculation, GDP is used here. The U.S. GDP since 1970 is represented by the green line in the first of the three charts to the right.
3. Market Valuations
Over the long run, stock market valuation reverts to its mean. A higher current valuation certainly correlates with lower long-term returns in the future. On the other hand, a lower current valuation level correlates with a higher long-term return. The total market valuation is measured by the ratio of total market cap (TMC) to GNP -- the equation representing Warren Buffett