记录：富国银行的历史估值区间与招商银行的卖出区间，2016年4月15日星期五。

【富国银行是巴菲特最爱】

1) 持股市值272亿美元/TOP1，占TOP15总市值之24%，银行股总市值占比43%。

2) Wells Fargo & Company是一间多元化，基于社区金融服务公司，总资产1.8万亿美元，排名第三，普通股市值第一，服务与1/3美国家庭。

3) 在Consumer &Community Banking 市场，效率与收益排名第一。

4) 他们认为，回报股东通过两种方式：提高分红与持续回购普通股。

招商银行比富国银行更优质嘛？答案，当然是否定的。既然，市场长期是称重机，研究富国历史估值区间，就更容易判断招商银行可能的价值区间。

【富国银行之历史估值】市场长期确为称重机，1991年跟随巴菲特的年报，以年度平均价格买入，持有25年/市值增长74倍，年均复合增长18.8%（注：并不包含年均股息率2.6%）。

1) 【合理上限】 PE>12.7倍，PB（包括商誉）>1.9倍，PB（剔除商誉）>2.6倍，PS>2.6倍，Div<2.4%。

2) 【高估区间】 PE>15倍，PB（包括商誉）>2倍，PB（剔除商誉）>3倍，PS>3.5倍，Div<2.0%。

3) 【疯狂区间】 PE>=18.5倍， PB（包括商誉）>=2.8倍， PB（剔除商誉）>=3.7，PS>=4.0倍。Div<=10 Year Treasury Rate/Min:1.53%(Jul 2012)

富国银行30年ROAA（剔除商誉）均值=1.29%，招商银行14年ROAA均值=1.03%，低于富国银行20%。以保守原则：假设招行2016年收入/净利润零增长，测量如下：

1) 【合理上限】 股价27.5元，市值6935亿，PE=12倍，PB=1.73倍，PS=3.44倍，Div=2.5%。

2) 【高估区间】 股价34.5元，市值8700亿，PE=15倍，PB=2.2倍，PS=4.3倍，Div=2.0%。

3) 【疯狂区间】 股价40.0元，市值10088亿，PE=17.5倍，PB=2.5倍，PS=5.01倍，Div=1.7%。

大致的卖出区间，可能就是如此。保守投资者，似乎应该是：合理上限，卖出50%；高估区间，浮动止盈。

*** 富国银行历史估值统计数据 ***

【市盈率】估值区间：8.7倍-12.7倍；高估区间：PE>15倍，6个年份/概率21%；2008年最高股价44.68元/股，相对2007年静态PE=18.5倍。

【市净率1（包括商誉）】估值区间：1.3倍-1.9倍；高估区间：PB>2倍，8个年份/概率28%；2008年最高PB=2.8倍。

【市净率2（剔除商誉）】估值区间：1.7倍-2.6倍；高估区间：PB>3倍，8个年份/概率28%。2008年最高PB=3.7倍。（注：商誉/净资产占比：历年平均21%，2015年/13%。）

【市销率】估值区间：1.8倍-2.6倍；高估区间：PS>3.5倍，9个年份/概率31%。2007年最高PS=3.6倍。

【股息率】估值区间：2.4% - 3.8%；高估区间：Div<2.0%，11个年份/概率38%。

（备注：美国10年期国债收益，10 Year Treasury Rate，Mean: 4.60%，Median: 3.88%，Min: 1.53% (Jul 2012)，Current 10 Year Treasury Rate: 1.80%）

*** 2015年年报信息***

1) Wells Fargo & Company is a diversified, community-based financial services company with $1.8 trillion in assets. we serve one in three households in the United States We ranked third in assets and first in the market value of our common stock among all U.S. banks at December 31, 2015.

2) rewarded our shareholders by increasing our dividend and continuing to repurchase shares of our common stock.

3) JPMorgan Chase is in Line with Best-in-Class Peers in Both Efficiency and Returns Consumer &Community Banking 效率与收益第一。

4) 富国银行的发展史就是一部并购史。成立至今，富国银行凭借逾1600次规模不等的并购活动，建立了一个高度综合化经营的超大型金融企业集团。和作死的RBS、花旗等相比，富国银行收购的特点就是：立足美国本土市场，立足于自身发展需要，立足于提升客户服务能力，立足于自己能够吞的下整合的了，通过收购建立规模优势。同等规模的兼并方能实现强强合作，梳理对富国银行的并购路径，可以看出对其产生重大影响的并购均为规模较大的强强合作。例如1996 年，恶意收购第一州际银行，成功消除了在加利福尼亚州最大的竞争对手，实现了规模倍增；1998 年，被西北银行合并，却保留了企业品牌和文化，再一次实现了规模的跃升；2008 年， 收购美联银行，将服务地域由美国中西部扩展至全美范围，资产规模增长至1.3 万亿美元，成为美国第四大银行和第一大零售银行。We were pleased to announce an agreement to acquire GE Capital’s Commercial Distribution Finance and Vendor Finance platforms, as well as a portion of its Corporate Finance business. We anticipate adding approximately $31 billion in assets and welcoming about 2,900 GE Capital team members to Wells Fargo when the transaction closes.

http://www.zhihu.com/question/21439446

富国银行（Wells Fargo Bank）是如何安然度过金融危机并且走到今天这一步的？

http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/20160115/232724167161.shtml

富国银行资产规模反超昔日龙头花旗

Financial Review

Overview

Wells Fargo & Company is a diversified, community-based financial services company with $1.8 trillion in assets. Founded in 1852 and headquartered in San Francisco, we provide banking, insurance, investments, mortgage, and consumer and commercial finance through 8,700 locations, 13,000 ATMs, the internet (wellsfargo.com) and mobile banking, and we have offices in 36 countries to support our customers who conduct business in the global economy. With approximately 265,000 active, full-time equivalent team members, we serve one in three households in the United States and ranked No. 30 on Fortune’s 2015 rankings of America’s largest corporations. We ranked third in assets and first in the market value of our common stock among all U.S. banks at December 31, 2015.

我们服务于美国的 1/3 家庭和财富的 2015年排名美国最大公司排名第 30。我们排名第三在资产，股票市值第一，所有的美国银行在 2015 年 12 月 31 日。

Best-in-class overhead ratio represents implied expenses of comparable peer segments weighted by JPMorgan Chase (JPM) revenue: Wells Fargo Community Banking (WFC), Citi Institutional Clients Group (Citi), PNC Corporate and Institutional Banking (PNC), UBS Wealth Management and Wealth Management Americas (UBS WM) and BlackRock (BLK). JPM overhead ratio represents the sum of the implied expenses of all peers and JPM Corporate segment divided by JPM revenue.

Represents firmwide ROTCE for JPM. Goodwill is primarily related to the Bank One merger and prior acquisitions and is predominantly retained by Corporate.

Best-in-class ROTCE represents implied net income minus preferred stock dividends (NIAC) for each comparable LOB peer weighted by JPM average tangible common equity: WFC, Citi Institutional Clients Group (Citi), Fifth Third Bank (FITB), Bank of America Global Wealth and Investment Management (BAC), T. Rowe Price (TROW). JPM ROTCE represents the sum of the implied combined NIAC of all peers and JPM Corporate segment divided by JPM average tangible equity.

We use our Vision and Values to guide us toward growth and success. Our vision is to satisfy our customers’ financial needs, help them succeed financially, be recognized as the premier financial services company in our markets and be one of America’s great companies. We aspire to create deep and enduring relationships with our customers by providing them with an exceptional experience and by discovering their needs and delivering the most relevant products, services, advice, and guidance.

We have five primary values, which are based on our vision and provide the foundation for everything we do. First, we value and support our people as a competitive advantage and strive to attract, develop, retain and motivate the most talented people we can find. Second, we strive for the highest ethical standards with our team members, our customers, our communities and our shareholders. Third, with respect to our customers, we strive to base our decisions and actions on what is right for them in everything we do. Fourth, for team members we strive to build and sustain a diverse and inclusive culture – one where they feel valued and respected for who they are as well as for the skills and experiences they bring to our company. Fifth, we also look to each of our team members to be leaders in establishing, sharing and communicating our vision. In addition to our five primary values, one of our key day-to-day priorities is to make risk management a competitive advantage by working hard to ensure appropriate controls are in place to reduce risks to our customers, maintain and increase our competitive market position, and protect Wells Fargo’s long-term safety, soundness and reputation.

Financial Performance

In 2015, we generated $22.9 billion of net income and record diluted earnings per common share (EPS) of $4.12 and ended the year as the world's most valuable bank by market capitalization. We produced strong loan and deposit growth, grew the number of customers we serve, improved credit quality, enhanced our risk management practices, increased our capital and liquidity levels and rewarded our shareholders by increasing our dividend and continuing to repurchase shares of our common stock. Our achievements during 2015 continued to demonstrate the benefit of our diversified business model and our continued focus on the real economy. Our contribution to the real economy in 2015 was broad based and included originating $213.2 billion in residential mortgage loans, $31.1 billion of auto loans, $18.8 billion in new loan commitments to our small business customers, who primarily have less than $20 million in annual revenue, and $34.4 billion of middle market loans.

奖励我们的股东通过增加我们的红利和继续我们的普通股股份回购的数量。

The strength of our balance sheet during 2015 positioned us for the agreement we announced in third quarter 2015 to purchase GE Capital's Commercial Distribution Finance and Vendor Finance businesses as well as a portion of its Corporate Finance business – an acquisition that will help us serve more markets and meet more of our customers' financial needs.

Another benefit of our company’s consistent performance is the ability to be well positioned for strategic acquisitions to support growth. We were pleased to announce an agreement to acquire GE Capital’s Commercial Distribution Finance and Vendor Finance platforms, as well as a portion of its Corporate Finance business. We anticipate adding approximately $31 billion in assets and welcoming about 2,900 GE Capital team members to Wells Fargo when the transaction closes. We also acquired GE Railcar Services, a railcar finance, leasing, and fleet management business, on Jan. 1, 2016, and in the second quarter of 2015 we completed a GE Capital commercial real estate loan portfolio transaction, which included approximately $11.5 billion in loan purchases and related financing.