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University of California at Berkeley graduation speech

Thomas J. Sargent_

May 16, 2007

I remember how happy I felt when I graduated from Berkeley many years ago. But I thought the graduation speeches were long. I will economize on words.

我记得多年前我从伯克利毕业的时候有多高兴，但是那天的毕业演说实在是长，所以哥今天决定省着点说。

Economics is organized common sense. Here is a short list of valuable lessons that our beautiful subject teaches.

经济学神马的那就是常识汇总，今天哥就跟你们说点物有所值的小段子。

1. Many things that are desirable are not feasible.

很多事只是看起来很美做起来没戏。

2. Individuals and communities face trade-offs.

个体和群体那尼玛就是冤家。

3. Other people have more information about their abilities, their efforts, and their preferences than you do.

谁也不是别人肚子里的蛔虫，别人想什么你也永远弄不明白。

4. Everyone responds to incentives, including people you want to help. That is why social safety nets don’t always end up working as intended.

人都是见利就上，兔子急了也咬人，天下太平就是个传说。

5. There are tradeoffs between equality and efficiency.

求稳还是求快，这事很纠结。

6. In an equilibrium of a game or an economy, people are satisfied with their choices. That is why it is difficult for well meaning outsiders to change things for better or worse.

只要规矩定的对，大家都愿赌服输，看牌的给打牌的支招就是欠抽，比如学者砖家神马的。

7. In the future, you too will respond to incentives. That is why there are some promises that you’d like to make but can’t. No one will believe those promises because they know that later it will not be in your interest to deliver. The lesson here is this: before you make a promise, think about whether you will want to keep it if and when your circumstances change. This is how you earn a reputation.

别急，你们以后也会见利就上，所以别急着装Ｂ，没人相信你丫真是活雷锋。要想不挨劈，装Ｂ之前先想好了，天要是真塌下来，你丫是不是撑得起来。

8. Governments and voters respond to incentives too. That is why governments sometimes default on loans and other promises that they have made.

政府和选民也是见利就上，所以政府赖个账放个空炮神马的那就是家常菜。

9. It is feasible for one generation to shift costs to subsequent ones. That is what national government debts and the U.S. social security system do (but not the social security system of Singapore).

老的吃小的这事还算靠谱，别吃把小的吃死就行，比如我们米国的社保。新加坡那种就歇歇吧。

10. When a government spends, its citizens eventually pay, either today or tomorrow, either through explicit taxes or implicit ones like inflation.

到什么时候都别忘了，政府吃的喝的都是从你身上捞的，税费之类的只是你看见的，还有你看不见的比如通胀。

11. Most people want other people to pay for public goods and government transfers (especially transfers to themselves).

谁都希望别人修桥我过河，拿政府说事就是指望政府插手，从别人身上拔毛往自己身上粘。

12. Because market prices aggregate traders’ information, it is difficult to forecast stock prices and interest rates and exchange rates.

预测股票利率汇率神马的基本上是扯，市场就是蛤蟆坑，唱不出个主旋律，想定调有点难。