2012年08月13日

标签:
杂谈 |
江恩预测市场的主宰数学公式
“After fifty-two years of
experience and research going back hundreds of years, I have proved
to my entire satisfaction that history repeats and that when we
know the past, we can determine the future of prices”. The
calculator that Gann is talking
about
江恩说:“在25年的市场经验和研究了几百年的历史之后,我有足够的令人满意的证据证明历史一直在重复,而当我们知道了过去,我们就可以测定未来的价格”
江恩谈到的计算器就是他的52覆盖方图,它的基础是一年有52个星期。
“ Within the circle forms the square, there is an
inner circle and an inner square, as well as an outer square and an
outer circle which prove the Fourth Dimension in working out price
movements”. This quote is describing a fractal nature or structural
pattern existing in the markets that is the same on smaller levels
as it is at larger
levels.
“在圆里有方,内有圆和方,同样外也有圆和方,这就证明了四度空间可以计算出价格的运动。”
引用江恩的这句话,描述了现在的市场与不规则的自然或结构之间的复制关系,事物在宏观水平和它在微观水平时是一模一样的。
Jumping over to Gann’s Angle course, on the last
page, Gann says: “Figuring $100 par, as a basis for stock prices and changing
these prices to degrees, 12½ = 45-degrees, 25 = 90-degrees, 37½=
135-degrees, 50 = 180-degrees, 62½ = 225-degrees, 75 = 270-degrees,
82½ = 315-degrees, and 100 = 360”. If shares of XYZ stock moved up
12½ dollars in 45 days, weeks or 45 months then the stock is on the
price degree of it’s time angle, that is to say that price and time
are equal or balanced.
跳过江恩的角度原理,在最后一页,江恩说:“演算一个票面价格100美圆的股票,作为股票基础的价格和角度之间的换算关系为:12.5 = 45度,25 = 90度,37.5 = 135度,50 = 180度,62.5 = 225度,75 = 270度,82.5 =315度,100 =360度。”
假如有个名字叫XYZ的股票用45天,周,月上涨了12.5美圆,那么这个股票的的价格就等于时间角度了,这样就可以说价格和时间相等并达到了平衡。(8分法的具体应用)
Gann’s example: “When a stock sells at 50 on the
180th day, week or month, it is on the degree of its
time angle”. “On February 1, 1915, U.S. Steel made a low at $38,
which is closest to a price of $37½, which is 3/8th of
100 and equals 135-degree angle. Steel was 14 years or 168 months
old on February 25, 1915, and hit the angle of 135-degrees, which
showed that the price of Steel was behind time, but was in a strong
position, holding at $38 above the 135-degree angle or the price
$37½”. Just to make sure that you understand this information, U.S.
Steel would have been balanced or “on the degree of its time
angle” at a price of $46 5/8th because $100/
360-degrees = 0.27777cents per degree and 168 months multiplied by
0.27777 = $46.67 which is closest to $46 or 5/8th in
price. Therefore, Steel is $8 5/8th behind
time.
江恩所举的事例:“当一个股票在第180天达到50的价格时要卖掉,因为它的价格水平已经处于他的时间角度上了”“在1915年的2月1日,美国钢铁形成了一个38美圆的低点,这个价格非常接近37.5美圆,它也是100的3/8或者等于135度角。在1915年的2月25日钢铁交易的年龄就达到14年或者168个月了,它冲击着135度角,显示了钢铁的交易价格在时间之后,但是却在一个很强大的位置上,正好在38美圆并超过了135度角以及37.5的价格”要是你确信你理解这个信息,美国钢铁的价格在46.625美圆将达到一个平衡或者价格水平处于它的时间角度上,因为100美圆除以360度等于0.27777分/度,那么168个月乘以0.27777就是46.67美圆,与46.625美圆在价格上非常接近,这样钢铁价格就比时间落后了8.625美圆
。(相对于1915年2月1日的低点38美圆)
Gann goes on to say: “When Steel reached $200, it
equaled 2 circles of 360-degrees (two complete cycles of $100).
When it advanced to $261¾, it was closest to $62½
(5/8th) in the third cycle of $100 or nearest the
225-degree angle or 5/8th point, which is the strongest
angle after it crossed the half-way point at $250 or the 180-degree
angle”. Note that Gann rejects the two circles or cycles of $100
price to convert the time
angle.
Moving on to the subject of time we know that Gann
placed great emphasis on the cardinal points of the solar year.
These are the Vernal Equinox, Summer Solstice, Autumnal Equinox and
Winter Solstice or March 21st, June 21st,
September 21st, and December 21st
respectively.
价格受到时间的影响,我们知道江恩非常强调太阳年的重要位置点,它们是两分两至,分别是3月21日,6月21日,9月21日,和12月21日。
江恩总是说一年的起点是在3月21日(不是1月1日),它是一个非常重要的季节性周期时间。这也是江恩所说的非常有趣的“圆中有方”。假如我们把每一个自然年(3月21日到3月21日)看成是一个完整的循环,因为这也是地球围绕太阳旋转了360度的时间距离。按照江恩的说法这里有个正方在这个轨道里然后我们就可以讨论一些非常独特的时间和正方形的几何信息了。
Lets build a hypothetical square running from
Vernal Equinox to Vernal Equinox as our horizontal axis and we will
use 0 to 100 as our vertical. If we draw in the two 45-degree
Angles corner to corner we have a shape that looks like a box with
an x in it. The two 45’s will meet at the exact center of both
price and time at $50 on the Autumnal Equinox or September
21st. If we bisect this square again with a horizontal
line going left to right at $50, and a vertical line going straight
up from the Autumn Equinox we can create four smaller squares with
half of the x already completed. If we complete these smaller boxes
with the missing 45-degree line we will find that these points come
out at $25 and $75 in price and also 25% and 75% in time or Sumer
Solstice to Winter Solstice (June 21st to December
21st).
让我们建立一个假想的方形从春分运行到春分作为我们的水平轴,然后用0—100作为我们的垂直轴,假如我们画两条45度的对角线,看起来就象一个盒子里有个十叉,两个45度的线的交点精确的落在时间和价格的中心位置,分别是50和9月21日秋分。假如我们再次以通过50的水平线从左到右将这个方型切开,然后再通过秋分点垂直分割就得到四个小一点的方形,假如我们用45度的暗线对角线来对小方做分割,就可以找到25和75的价格和25%和75%的时间,或者夏至到冬至(6月21日-12月21日)。
假如我们用这四个点,分别是25和6月21日,75和6月21日,25和12月21日,75和12月21日,并做成一个新的方形,我们就会发现我们这个新的方形刚好在尺寸上是我们原先方形的一半大小,而它的几个点都正好落在时间和价格的1/4位置上。
Our new square also maintains the exact center of
our old square at $50. This new square is now an exact musical
octave of the old square because it’s based upon powers of 2 or is
exactly ½ our old square. This tells us that if we want to find a
square that is within our old square that we will only find it
between the two Solstice points in the year! If we wanted to
enlarge the original square (to find an outer square) we would
again follow the natural law of the musical octave, i.e. powers of
2. The first part of the problem is easy because we know that the
next square is going to be twice as large as our old square. So
this means that we are moving up from a one-year square to a
two-year square in terms of time but this does not answer where in
time this new square begins and ends.
我们得到的这个新的方图的中心依然还在原来方图的50这个位置上。这个新的方形现在和老的方图之间存在了一种音乐上的八阶和谐关系,因为它是在相对之间存在2的幂和其倒数1/2的关系。这就告诉我们假如我们想要在原来的方形里找到一个方图我们仅仅需要在一年中的两至日之间去找,而我们如果想扩大这个原先的尺寸(为了找外面的方形),我们还是要再次跟随音律的那种和谐自然法则,比如2的幂。
问题的第一部分是很容易的,因为我们知道这个方形将会比我们原先的方形大两倍。所以这个意思是说我们从时间角度上就从一年的方形上升为两年的方形,但是这里没有回答这个时间从那里开始从那里结束。
要想计算这个大一点的方形从那里开始从那里结束,我们就不得不使用“源头如何则支流如何”。另外,当我们构筑小一点的方形时,我们发现它是存在大方形内部的25%和75%的时间点上,因此3月21日到3月21日可以看成是上述大方形的1/4点。在一年的四方形里,时间的1/4是90度或者91.3125太阳天数,这个意思就是说这个1/4长度的时间在哪个大一点的方形里应该是180度或者182.625太阳天数,应该是2倍于它内部方形的大小。假如我们从小的这个方形上的时间点上加上和减去180度或等同的天数,我们就可以找到两年的方形开始和终结点是在秋分,用同样方法,我们可以找到4年,8年,16年的方形。
Getting back to the inner squares, a 90-degree
square (1/2 of our 180-degree Summer Solstice to Winter Solstice
and winter back to summer circle) would begin and end 45-degrees
after the Sumer Solstice and 45-degrees before the Winter Solstice
because 45 is ¼ of 180. This would be 45.65 days or ¼ of 182.625.
So this means we would have another (90-degree) square running
inside the (180-degree) Solstice squares beginning on August
5th and ending November 5th. Then just as we
have two 180-degree Solstice squares running from Summer to Winter,
then Winter back to Summer, we also have four 90-degree squares
running from August 5th to November 5th,
November 5th to February 5th, February
5th to May 5th and May
5th
回到内方形,一个90度的方形(是夏至到冬至冬夏循环180度的一半)将在夏至后开始和终结45度并在冬至前开始和终结另一个45度,因为45度是180的1/4。这也等于45.65天等同于182.625的1/4。所以这意味着我们可以在两至间运行的方形(180度)内部运行另一个90度的方形,它开始于8月5日结束于11月5日。这样我们有两个180度的两至点方形从夏季运行到冬季,然后再从冬季返回到夏季,我们同样也得到4个90度的方形分别是从8月5日到11月5日,从11月5日运行到转年的2月5日,2月5日到5月5日,5月5日回到8月5日。
“ Within the circle forms the square, there is an
inner circle and an inner square, as well as an outer square and an
outer circle which prove the Fourth Dimension in working out price
movements”.
“在一个圆里可以构筑一个方形,那么一个内圆里就有一个内方,同样道理一个外圆里外边还有外方,这就证明了第四度空间可以计算价格的运动”